Holiday Returns in US 2026 show a costly second peak season: retailers expect shoppers to send back 17% of holiday sales, and NRF projected total US returns of $849.9 billion in 2025, a 15.8% return rate. Return rates rose 41% in November and December 2025 compared with 2024 in Seel platform data, while NRF estimates that 9% of all returns are fraudulent.
Holiday Returns in US 2026 – Introduction
Holiday Returns in US 2026 describe a season that does not end on December 25. Shoppers spent a record $257.8 billion online in November and December 2025, and then they sent a large share of it back. Retailers expect 17% of holiday sales to come back. Applied to NRF’s $1.013 trillion forecast for the 2026 season, that points to roughly $172 billion in returned goods. Returns now rank as a second peak, with its own staffing, shipping and fraud problems.
This report gathers the latest verified numbers on return rates, refunds, costs, product categories, fraud and retailer deadlines. It draws on the National Retail Federation, Happy Returns, Appriss Retail, Deloitte, Seel and B-Stock. Each section pairs a chart with a data table and a plain breakdown of every metric. NRF had not published a 2026 returns report in the sources reviewed, so annual figures come from its 2025 edition. Each source line gives the date.
Interesting Facts About Holiday Returns in US 2026
KEY RETURN INDICATORS, US (% OF GROUP)
Return rate, all sales (2025) | ████████ 15.8%
Return rate, online sales (2025) | ██████████ 19.3%
Holiday sales returned | ████████ 17%
Returns that are fraudulent | ████ 9%
Shoppers who weigh free returns | █████████████████████████████████████████ 82%
| Fact | Data | Measured By |
|---|---|---|
| Projected total US returns, 2025 | $849.9 billion (15.8% of sales) | NRF and Happy Returns |
| Online sales returned, 2025 | 19.3% | NRF and Happy Returns |
| Holiday sales retailers expect to be returned | 17% | NRF and Happy Returns |
| Implied 2026 holiday returns at 17% | About $172 billion | Calculated from NRF forecast |
| Return rate growth, November-December 2025 vs 2024 | 41% | Seel |
| Retail cost to process a return | About 30% of item value | Appriss Retail |
| Returns that are fraudulent | 9% | NRF and Happy Returns |
| Shoppers who cite free returns as a key factor | 82% (76% a year earlier) | NRF and Happy Returns |
Source: National Retail Federation and Happy Returns, 2025 Retail Returns Landscape (October 2025); Appriss Retail, 2026 Total Retail Loss Benchmark Report; Seel, 2025 holiday returns data; NRF 2026 holiday forecast.
Volume sets the scale. NRF projected $849.9 billion in returns for 2025, equal to 15.8% of sales. Online shoppers send back more, at 19.3%. Retailers expect 17% of holiday sales to return, which implies about $172 billion against the 2026 forecast of $1.013 trillion. Holiday Returns Statistics in US show a flow of goods that rivals the sales season itself.
Pressure follows volume. Seel measured a 41% jump in return rates for November and December 2025 over the prior year. Processing one return costs retailers about 30% of the item’s value, and 9% of returns are fraudulent. 82% of shoppers weigh free returns when they buy, up from 76%. Shoppers demand easy returns, and retailers pay for them.
How Much Merchandise Do Americans Return Each Year in 2026?
TOTAL US RETAIL RETURNS BY YEAR (BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)
2019 | ███████████████ $309B
2020 | █████████████████████ $428B
2021 | ██████████████████████████████████████ $760.8B
2022 | █████████████████████████████████████████ $816.8B
2024 | ████████████████████████████████████████████ $890B
2025 | ██████████████████████████████████████████ $849.9B
| Year | Return Rate | Total Returns |
|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 8.1% | $309 billion |
| 2020 | 10.6% | $428 billion |
| 2021 | 16.6% | $760.8 billion |
| 2022 | 16.5% | $816.8 billion |
| 2024 | 16.9% | $890 billion |
| 2025 (projected) | 15.8% | $849.9 billion |
Source: National Retail Federation and Happy Returns, 2025 Retail Returns Landscape (October 2025). The 2023 edition used a different method and is not comparable.
Returns nearly doubled as a share of sales between 2019 and 2025. The rate rose from 8.1% to 15.8%, and total returns grew from $309 billion to $849.9 billion, about 2.75 times the 2019 level. The jump came in 2020 and 2021, when online shopping surged. The rate hit 10.6% in 2020 and 16.6% in 2021, and total returns reached $428 billion and $760.8 billion.
The rate has held in a narrow band since 2021. It stood at 16.5% in 2022 and peaked at 16.9% in 2024, with returns of $816.8 billion and $890 billion. The 2025 projection of 15.8% is 1.1 points lower, and the dollar total fell about $40.1 billion, or 4.5%. EMARKETER forecasts $876.69 billion for 2026, up 2.9%. Holiday Returns Statistics in US show a plateau at a very high level.
What Share of Holiday Sales Do Shoppers Return in 2026?
RETURN RATES, US (% OF SALES)
All retail sales, 2025 | ████████ 15.8%
Online sales, 2025 | ██████████ 19.3%
Holiday sales (NRF) | ████████ 17%
Online holiday sales (B-Stock) | ██████████ 19%
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Return rate, all retail sales, 2025 | 15.8% |
| Return rate, online sales, 2025 | 19.3% |
| Holiday sales expected to be returned (NRF) | 17% |
| Online holiday sales expected to be returned (B-Stock) | 19% |
| Total 2025 holiday returns estimate (B-Stock) | About $160 billion |
| Projected 2026 holiday retail sales (NRF) | $1.013 trillion |
| Implied 2026 holiday returns at 17% | About $172 billion |
Source: National Retail Federation and Happy Returns (October 2025); B-Stock holiday returns analysis (2025); NRF 2026 holiday forecast (October 2026). The $172 billion figure is a calculation, not an NRF forecast.
Holiday shoppers return more than the annual average. NRF reports 17% of holiday sales come back, against 15.8% for the full year. Online sales run higher still. The annual online rate is 19.3%, and B-Stock puts online holiday returns at 19%. The gap between online and all sales is 3.5 points. Online buyers cannot try items on, so more of them go back.
Dollar totals follow the rates. B-Stock estimated about $160 billion in returns from the 2025 holiday season, and said holiday return rates have more than doubled since 2019. NRF now projects $1.013 trillion in 2026 holiday sales. A 17% return rate on that total gives about $172 billion. That figure is a calculation, not a forecast from NRF. Holiday Returns Statistics in US show a bill that grows with every sales record.
Are Holiday Returns Growing Faster Than Holiday Spending in 2026?
GROWTH IN 2025 HOLIDAY SEASON VS 2024 (%)
Return rate, Nov-Dec | ████████████████████ 41%
Fashion returns vs rest of year | ████████████████ 33%
Electronics returns vs rest of year | ███████████ 22%
Online holiday spending | ███ 6.8%
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Return rate growth, November-December 2025 vs 2024 | 41% |
| Online holiday spending growth, November 1-December 31, 2025 | 6.8% ($257.8 billion) |
| Average refund value per return, 2025 growth | 42% |
| Refund dollars issued December 26-January 15, growth | 336% |
| Shoppers adding post-purchase protection, growth | 134% |
| Typical November-December rise in return activity | 16% |
Source: Seel, post-holiday returns data (February 2026) and 2025 Returns and Refunds Report (December 2025); Adobe Analytics online spending data as reported by Chain Store Age.
Returns outran spending. Adobe measured $257.8 billion in online holiday spending, up 6.8%. Seel found return rates for November and December rose 41% over the same months in 2024. That is about 6 times the spending growth. Seel also found the typical November-December rise in return activity is 16%, so 2025 ran far above the usual seasonal bump.
Refund data shows the same strain. The average refund value per return grew 42%, so shoppers sent back costlier items. Refund dollars issued between December 26 and January 15 rose 336% year over year. Shoppers also added post-purchase protection 134% more often, which Seel reads as a sign of holiday anxiety. These figures come from one platform’s data, not a national count, but they show direction. Holiday Returns Statistics in US moved sharply upward in the last full season.
Which Product Categories Are Returned Most During the Holidays in 2026?
HOLIDAY RETURN INDICATORS BY CATEGORY (%)
Fashion returns vs rest of year | ████████████████ 33%
Electronics returns vs rest of year | ███████████ 22%
Secondhand purchases growth | ██████████ 20%
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Fashion returns, November-December 2025 vs rest of year | 33% higher |
| Electronics returns, November-December 2025 vs rest of year | 22% higher |
| Secondhand items returned more often than new items | 140% more often |
| Secondhand purchase growth, holiday 2025 vs 2024 | 20% |
| Average return value, 2024 holiday season (Loop Returns) | $149 |
| Items submitted for return, 2024 holiday season (Loop Returns) | 4.87 million |
Source: Seel, post-holiday returns data (February 2026); Seel 2025 Returns and Refunds Report; Loop Returns data as reported by Digital Commerce 360 (January 2025).
Fashion leads the holiday surge. Seel measured 33% more fashion returns in November and December 2025 than in the rest of the year. Electronics rose 22%. Clothing returns come from fit and style misses, and electronics returns come from gifts that miss the recipient’s need. Secondhand items go back 140% more often than new items on Seel’s platform, even as holiday secondhand purchases grew 20%.
Loop Returns gives a scale check from the 2024 season. Merchants on its platform processed 4.87 million returned items with an average value of $149. That season used a different sample, so the numbers show size, not trend. Nothing in the available data ranks every product category by return rate. The category figures here come from platform data and cover specific merchants. Holiday Returns Statistics in US by category remain thinner than totals.
How Much Do Returns Cost US Retailers in 2026?
RETAIL LOSSES TIED TO RETURNS AND SHRINK, 2025 (BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)
Returns and shrink combined | ████████████████████████████████████████ $796B
Total returns (Appriss) | ███████████████████████████████████ $706B
Cost to process returns | ███████████ $211B
Shrink only | ████ $90B
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Combined loss from returns and shrink, 2025 | $796 billion |
| Total returns (Appriss estimate), 2025 | $706 billion |
| Cost to process returns, share of item value | About 30% |
| Industry-wide processing cost, 2025 | $211 billion |
| Loss from shrink alone | $90 billion |
| Shoppers who say a good return experience boosts repeat purchases | 8 in 10 |
Source: Appriss Retail, 2026 Total Retail Loss Benchmark Report (survey of 1,020 U.S. consumers in December 2025 and analysis of 250 million customer identifiers).
Appriss Retail puts the combined loss from returns and shrink at $796 billion for 2025. Returns account for $706 billion of that and shrink for $90 billion. Appriss’s returns total is lower than NRF’s $849.9 billion because the two groups measure different things. Returns drive most of the loss, so any change in return behavior moves retail profit more than theft does.
Handling is the main cost. Processing a return costs about 30% of the item’s value, which adds up to $211 billion across US retail. That cost covers shipping, inspection, restocking and markdowns. Yet 8 in 10 shoppers say a good return experience makes them more likely to buy again. Retailers lose money on every return and still need to make returns easy. Holiday Returns Statistics in US reveal that tension.
How Big Is Holiday Return Fraud in the US in 2026?
RETURN FRAUD AND RETAILER RESPONSE (% OF GROUP)
Retailers using AI against fraud | ██████████████████████████████████████████ 85%
Retailers using third-party logistics | ████████████████████████ 49%
Retailers hiring seasonal returns staff | ██████████████████████ 43%
Retailers extending return windows | ██████████████████ 37%
Returns that are fraud or abuse (2024) | ████████ 15.14%
Returns that are fraudulent (NRF) | ████ 9%
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Returns deemed fraudulent (NRF, 2025) | 9% |
| Returns affected by abuse and fraud (Appriss and Deloitte, 2024) | 15.14% |
| Returns-related loss from abuse (Appriss, 2026) | 12% |
| Returns-related loss from fraud (Appriss, 2026) | 2% |
| Retailers using AI to detect or prevent return fraud | 85% |
| Retailers planning more third-party logistics for holiday returns | 49% |
| Retailers planning seasonal returns staff | 43% |
| Retailers planning to extend return windows | 37% |
Source: National Retail Federation and Happy Returns (October 2025); Appriss Retail and Deloitte, 2024 Consumer Returns in the Retail Industry; Appriss Retail, 2026 Total Retail Loss Benchmark Report.
NRF says 9% of all returns are fraudulent, which on $849.9 billion implies about $76 billion. That figure is a calculation. Appriss and Deloitte reported a higher 15.14% for 2024 because they counted abuse, such as wearing an item and then returning it, together with fraud. In its 2026 report, Appriss attributed 12% of returns-related loss to abuse and only 2% to fraud. Most of the harm comes from legitimate customers who stretch the rules.
Retailers are responding. 85% use AI to detect or prevent return fraud. For holiday volume, 49% plan more third-party logistics, 43% plan seasonal returns staff and 37% plan to extend return windows. Those steps pull in different directions. Longer windows please shoppers and give abusers more time. Holiday Returns Statistics in US show retailers balancing service against loss.
What Are the Holiday Return Deadlines at Major US Retailers in 2026?
APPROXIMATE DAYS FROM START OF PURCHASE WINDOW TO RETURN DEADLINE (CALCULATED)
Walmart | ████████████████████████ 122 days
Amazon | ██████████████████ 91 days
Target | █████████████████ 84 days
Best Buy | ███████████████ 77 days
| Retailer | Purchase Window | Return Deadline |
|---|---|---|
| Walmart | October 1 to December 31, 2026 | January 31, 2027 |
| Amazon | November 1 to December 31, 2026 | January 31, 2027 (Apple items: January 15, 2027) |
| Target | November 1 to December 24, 2026 | January 24, 2027 |
| Best Buy | About October 30 to December 31, 2026 | January 15, 2027 |
Source: Retailer holiday return policies as reported by Value Added Resource (October 2026) and the New York Post via World Journal (November 2026). Confirm terms on each retailer’s site.
Walmart gives the longest window. Items bought from October 1 to December 31 can go back until January 31, 2027, which spans about 122 days from the first purchase date. Amazon covers November 1 through December 31 purchases with the same January 31 deadline, about 91 days, and sets January 15 for Apple products. Amazon says the extended window will repeat every year.
Target and Best Buy run shorter windows. Target accepts most purchases made November 1 to December 24 until January 24, 2027, about 84 days. Best Buy accepts purchases from about October 30 to December 31 until January 15, 2027, about 77 days, and reports differ slightly on its start date. Third-party marketplace sellers, some electronics and some categories can follow shorter rules. Holiday Returns Statistics in US depend on these deadlines because they decide when the January wave arrives.
Holiday Returns in US 2026 – Frequently Asked Questions
What Are the Latest Holiday Returns Statistics in US 2026?
Retailers expect 17% of holiday sales to be returned. NRF projected $849.9 billion in total 2025 returns at a 15.8% rate. Seel measured a 41% rise in November-December 2025 return rates over 2024.
How Much Merchandise Do Americans Return in 2026?
NRF projected $849.9 billion in returns for 2025, down from $890 billion in 2024. EMARKETER forecasts $876.69 billion for 2026. NRF had not published a 2026 returns report in the sources reviewed.
What Percentage of Holiday Purchases Get Returned in 2026?
NRF and Happy Returns report that retailers expect 17% of holiday sales to come back. B-Stock puts online holiday returns at 19%. The annual rate across all retail is 15.8%.
How Much Will Holiday Returns Cost in 2026?
At 17% of NRF’s $1.013 trillion holiday forecast, returns would reach about $172 billion. That figure is a calculation. Processing costs retailers about 30% of each item’s value, according to Appriss Retail.
Are Online Returns Higher Than In-Store Returns in 2026?
Yes. NRF expects 19.3% of online sales to be returned in 2025, against 15.8% of all sales. Appriss and Deloitte estimated 24.52% for online and 8.72% for in-store in 2024.
Which Products Are Returned Most After Christmas in 2026?
Fashion and electronics lead the available data. Seel found fashion returns ran 33% higher in November-December 2025 than in the rest of the year, and electronics ran 22% higher.
How Much Return Fraud Is There in the US in 2026?
NRF says 9% of returns are fraudulent. Appriss and Deloitte put abuse and fraud together at 15.14% for 2024. The gap comes from definitions, since abuse includes legitimate but excessive returns.
What Is the Walmart Holiday Return Deadline in 2026?
Walmart accepts most items bought from October 1 to December 31, 2026 until January 31, 2027. Marketplace sellers and some categories can follow different rules, so check the order page.
What Is the Amazon Holiday Return Deadline in 2026?
Amazon accepts most items bought from November 1 to December 31, 2026 until January 31, 2027. Apple products have an earlier deadline of January 15, 2027, according to Value Added Resource.
What Are the Target and Best Buy Holiday Return Deadlines in 2026?
Target accepts most purchases from November 1 to December 24 until January 24, 2027. Best Buy accepts holiday purchases until January 15, 2027, though reports differ on its start date.
Why Are Holiday Returns Rising in 2026?
Online shopping, free returns and bracketing drive volume. 82% of shoppers weigh free returns, and Seel saw refund value per return rise 42% in 2025. Retailers also extend windows, which lets more purchases come back.
Do Retailers Use AI to Stop Return Fraud in 2026?
Yes. 85% of retailers say they use AI to detect or prevent return fraud, according to NRF and Happy Returns. Another 49% plan to lean on third-party logistics partners for holiday returns.
How Do Retailers Prepare for Holiday Returns in 2026?
NRF found 49% plan more third-party logistics, 43% plan seasonal returns staff and 37% plan to extend return windows. Those steps help absorb the January wave.
Do Good Return Policies Help Retailers Win Repeat Customers in 2026?
Yes. Appriss Retail found that 8 in 10 shoppers say a good return experience raises their intent to buy again. Free returns also matter to 82% of shoppers in NRF’s survey.
Are Holiday Returns Rising Faster Than Holiday Spending in 2026?
In the 2025 season, yes. Seel measured a 41% rise in November-December return rates, while Adobe measured 6.8% growth in online holiday spending. Returns grew about 6 times faster on those two measures.
When Do Most Holiday Returns Happen in 2026?
Returns peak in the weeks after Christmas and begin before it. A ClickPost summary reports that 1 in 7 holiday online returns in 2025 happened between December 26 and December 31, and that UPS marked January 5, 2026 as its peak return day.
What Share of Shoppers Make Returns After the Holidays in 2026?
Ada survey data cited by EMARKETER found that 55% of US consumers had made or planned a return after the 2025 holidays. 21% said they return items more than once a month.
Are Secondhand Items Returned More Often Than New Items in 2026?
Yes, on one platform. Seel found secondhand items were returned 140% more often than new items, even as holiday secondhand purchases grew 20% between 2024 and 2025.
Do Return Fees Hurt Sales in 2026?
They can. NRF and Happy Returns data cited by EMARKETER found that 48% of retailers saw average order value fall after they added return fees. Many retailers still charge fees for mailed returns to offset processing costs.
Does Bracketing Increase Holiday Returns in 2026?
Yes, according to NRF and Happy Returns. They flagged bracketing, which means buying several versions of an item and returning most of them, as a behavior that adds to return costs. Free returns make the habit easy for the 82% of shoppers who weigh them.
Is Reducing Returns a Retail Priority in 2026?
Yes. Retailers surveyed by NRF and Happy Returns named increasing online sales and reducing return rates as their top priorities for 2026. That goal conflicts with demand for free returns, which 82% of shoppers value.
Disclaimer: The data research report we present here is based on information found from various sources. We are not liable for any financial loss, errors, or damages of any kind that may result from the use of the information herein. We acknowledge that though we try to report accurately, we cannot verify the absolute facts of everything that has been represented.
