Electricity Grid Capacity in the US is adequate for normal peaks in 2026, with about 865 GW of expected summer demand and 58 GW of new resources added since last year, but PJM’s July 2026 capacity auction came up 6,831 MW short of its reliability target. NERC projects summer peak demand will rise 224 GW by 2035, while 2,061 GW of generation and storage waits in interconnection queues.
Electricity Grid Capacity 2026 – Introduction
Electricity Grid Capacity in the US is tight in places and ample in others. NERC’s May 2026 summer assessment found every region has enough resources for a normal summer, helped by 58 GW of new capacity. Yet its January 2026 long-term assessment projects peak demand will climb 224 GW by 2035, 69% more than last year’s forecast. Data centers drive most of that growth, and supply is struggling to keep up in the PJM region from Illinois to Virginia.
The bottleneck is not only generation. Berkeley Lab counted 2,061 GW of projects waiting for a grid connection at the end of 2025, and projects built that year took a median of more than 5 years from request to operation. EIA expects a record 86 GW of new capacity in 2026, but over 20 GW of it is scheduled for December. This report collects the latest verified numbers from NERC, EIA, PJM and Berkeley Lab as of October 16, 2026. Forecasts differ by source and date, and each table names its own.
Interesting Facts About Electricity Grid Capacity in the US 2026
PROJECTED PEAK DEMAND GROWTH BY 2035 (1 block = 10 GW)
US winter peak | [[B:25]] +245 GW
US summer peak | [[B:22]] +224 GW
ERCOT summer peak | [[B:6]] +59 GW
PJM summer peak | [[B:6]] +56 GW
MISO summer peak | [[B:2]] +17 GW
| Fact | 2026 Data |
|---|---|
| Expected summer peak demand, 2026 (NERC) | About 865 GW |
| New summer resources added since 2025 | 58 GW |
| Projected US summer peak growth by 2035 | 224 GW |
| Projected US winter peak growth by 2035 | 245 GW |
| Planned capacity additions in 2026 (EIA) | 86 GW (record) |
| Capacity actually added in 2025 | 53 GW |
| Generation and storage in interconnection queues | 2,061 GW |
| PJM capacity shortfall, 2028/29 auction | 6,831 MW |
| PJM capacity price, 2028/29 | $325 per MW-day |
Source: North American Electric Reliability Corporation (May 19, 2026; January 2026); U.S. Energy Information Administration (February 20, 2026); Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (June 2026); PJM Interconnection (July 14, 2026).
The table shows supply and demand growing at different speeds. Summer demand sits near 865 GW, and NERC projects 224 GW more by 2035, a rise of about 24%. Winter peaks are expected to grow even faster, by 245 GW. Planned additions of 86 GW in 2026 would be a record, well above the 53 GW added in 2025.
The pressure points are regional. PJM cleared its latest capacity auction at the price cap and still fell 6,831 MW short. Queues hold 2,061 GW, but most of that will never be built. The gap between what developers propose and what actually reaches the grid is the central problem in 2026.
US Summer 2026 Grid Reliability: NERC Summer Assessment Findings
NEW SUMMER RESOURCES ADDED SINCE 2025 (1 block = 2 GW)
Solar | [[B:8]] 16.4 GW
Battery storage | [[B:7]] 14.7 GW
Natural gas | [[B:4]] 7 GW
All new resources| [[B:29]] 58 GW
| Metric | 2026 Figure |
|---|---|
| Expected summer peak demand | About 865 GW |
| Peak demand increase over 2025 projections | 11 GW |
| New resources added since last summer | More than 58 GW |
| Solar added | 16.4 GW |
| Battery storage added | 14.7 GW |
| Natural gas added | 7 GW |
| ERCOT summer demand forecast cut (data center flexibility) | 1.9 GW |
| Areas at elevated risk in extreme conditions | 3 (New England, SaskPower, WECC-Northwest) |
Source: North American Electric Reliability Corporation, 2026 Summer Reliability Assessment (May 19, 2026).
NERC concluded that every assessment area has adequate resources for a normal summer. The grid added more than 58 GW of resources since last year, including 16.4 GW of solar, 14.7 GW of batteries and 7 GW of gas. Peak demand rose 11 GW, so supply grew faster than load. Three areas face elevated shortfall risk if the heat is extreme: New England, Saskatchewan’s SaskPower and the Pacific Northwest portion of WECC.
The headline is reassuring, but NERC flags shoulder-season risk. Spring and fall maintenance seasons leave less capacity online while demand is still high. Several regions also revised load forecasts down because data centers are connecting more slowly than requested. ERCOT cut its summer forecast by 1.9 GW after crediting data centers that can flex their load. That helps this year, but it also shows how uncertain the demand outlook has become.
US Long-Term Electricity Demand Forecast 2026: NERC Reliability Assessment to 2035
SUMMER PEAK DEMAND OUTLOOK (1 block = 10 GW)
ERCOT 2026 | [[B:9]] 94.7 GW
ERCOT 2035 | [[B:15]] 154.1 GW
MISO 2026 | [[B:13]] 127.1 GW
MISO 2035 | [[B:14]] 143.7 GW
| Metric | NERC Long-Term Assessment |
|---|---|
| US summer peak growth, 2025-2035 | 224 GW |
| Increase over prior year’s forecast | 69% (from 132 GW) |
| US winter peak growth, 2025-2035 | 245 GW |
| Increase over prior year’s winter forecast | 65% |
| ERCOT summer peak, 2026 | 94.7 GW |
| ERCOT summer peak, 2035 | 154.1 GW |
| MISO summer peak, 2026 | 127.1 GW |
| MISO summer peak, 2035 | 143.7 GW |
| PJM summer peak growth by mid-2030s | 56 GW |
| PJM winter peak growth by mid-2030s | 62 GW |
Source: North American Electric Reliability Corporation, 2025 Long-Term Reliability Assessment (January 2026) via POWER Magazine.
NERC’s January 2026 assessment projects 224 GW of summer growth and 245 GW of winter growth over ten years. The summer figure is 69% above last year’s forecast of 132 GW, the largest upward revision in NERC’s records. ERCOT is the extreme case. Its summer peak is forecast to rise from 94.7 GW in 2026 to 154.1 GW in 2035, a 63% jump of about 59 GW.
MISO’s peak grows from 127.1 GW to 143.7 GW, with about 18 GW of data center additions driving much of it. PJM adds 56 GW in summer and 62 GW in winter by the mid-2030s. NERC rates ERCOT at elevated risk from 2026 to 2028 and high risk from 2029. Planned retirements of older plants add to the squeeze, so the supply gap depends on how many new projects reach operation.
Interconnection Queue Statistics in the US 2026: Why Power Plants Wait Years for Grid Access
ACTIVE INTERCONNECTION QUEUE BY RESOURCE, END OF 2025 (1 block = 25 GW)
Solar | [[B:31]] 773 GW
Storage | [[B:30]] 749 GW
Natural gas | [[B:10]] 253 GW
Wind | [[B:9]] 220 GW
| Resource | Active Capacity | Change From 2024 |
|---|---|---|
| Solar | 773 GW | -19% |
| Storage | 749 GW | -16% |
| Natural gas | 253 GW | +86% |
| Wind | 220 GW | -19% |
| Total generation and storage | 2,061 GW | -10% |
| Generation only | 1,312 GW | – |
| Capacity with interconnection agreements, not yet operating | 549 GW | – |
| Median years from request to operation (2025 builds) | More than 5 | – |
| Share of 2000-2020 requests that reached operation | 13% | – |
Source: Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Queued Up: 2026 Edition (data through end of 2025; published June 2026).
About 8,200 projects were waiting at the end of 2025, carrying 1,312 GW of generation and 749 GW of storage. Total queue volume fell 10% because more than 750 GW was withdrawn while about 600 GW of new requests arrived. Natural gas requests rose 86% to 253 GW, while solar, storage and wind all fell. The non-ISO West holds 567 GW and ERCOT holds 408 GW.
Most of this will not be built. Only 13% of capacity requested from 2000 to 2020 had reached operation by the end of 2025, and 75% was withdrawn. Another 549 GW has an interconnection agreement but is not yet running. The median time from request to operation is now over 5 years, so a project that applies today may not deliver power until the early 2030s.
PJM Capacity Auction Results 2026: Prices, Shortfall and Data Center Demand
PJM CAPACITY PRICE BY DELIVERY YEAR, $ PER MW-DAY
2024/25 | [[B:3]] $28.92
2025/26 | [[B:27]] $269.92
2026/27 | [[B:33]] $329.17
2027/28 | [[B:33]] $333.44
2028/29 | [[B:33]] $325.00
| Metric | Figure |
|---|---|
| Capacity cleared, 2028/29 | 138,318 MW |
| Clearing price (at the cap) | $325 per MW-day |
| Price without the cap | About $555 per MW-day |
| Shortfall below reliability requirement | 6,831 MW |
| Reserve margin achieved | 14.7% |
| Reserve margin target | 20% |
| New generation and upgrades cleared | 525 MW |
| Total auction cost | $16.4 billion |
| Proposed Reliability Backstop Procurement | 14.9 GW |
Source: PJM Interconnection, 2028/2029 Base Residual Auction Report (July 14, 2026); Utility Dive; RTO Insider.
PJM’s July 14, 2026 auction cleared 138,318 MW at the $325 price cap and still left the region 6,831 MW short. That is the second shortfall in a row, after 6,516 MW the year before. The reserve margin reached 14.7% against a 20% target. Without the cap, the price would have been about $555 per MW-day. Capacity cost $16.4 billion, up from just $28.92 per MW-day for 2024/25.
New supply barely moved. Only 525 MW of new generation and upgrades cleared, under 10% of the shortfall. For 2027/28, nearly 5,100 MW of a 5,250 MW rise in peak forecast came from data centers. PJM now proposes a 14.9 GW Reliability Backstop Procurement. For where that new load is landing, see our report on data center locations in the US.
New Power Plant Capacity in the US 2026: EIA Record 86 GW Planned
PLANNED 2026 CAPACITY ADDITIONS BY RESOURCE
Solar | [[B:22]] 43.4 GW
Battery | [[B:12]] 24.3 GW
Wind | [[B:6]] 11.8 GW
Natural gas | [[B:3]] 6.3 GW
| Resource | Planned 2026 Additions | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Solar | 43.4 GW | 51% |
| Battery storage | 24.3 GW | 28% |
| Wind | 11.8 GW | 14% |
| Natural gas | 6.3 GW | 7% |
| Other | 0.2 GW | 0.2% |
| Total planned | 86 GW | 100% |
| Added in 2025 | 53 GW | – |
| Utility battery capacity, now to early 2027 | 44.6 GW to 67.5 GW | +51% |
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Today in Energy (February 20, 2026) and Preliminary Monthly Electric Generator Inventory.
EIA expects developers to add 86 GW in 2026, a record that would beat the 53 GW added in 2025 by 33 GW. Solar leads with 43.4 GW, up 60%, followed by 24.3 GW of batteries and 11.8 GW of wind. Natural gas adds only 6.3 GW. Utility battery capacity is expected to grow from 44.6 GW to 67.5 GW, an increase of 51%. Over 20 GW is scheduled for December, so slippage is likely.
Reliable supply matters most during heat waves, when demand peaks and outages carry human costs, as covered in our report on heat-related deaths in the US. EIA expects fossil and nuclear capacity to fall by almost 5 GW by early 2027. Solar, wind and batteries supply nearly all net new capacity, so firm gas and nuclear additions will matter for evening peaks, when solar output drops.
Data Center Electricity Demand in the US 2026: Where the Load Is Landing
DATA CENTERS BY STATE, OPERATING VS PLANNED
Virginia operating | [[B:40]] 398
Virginia planned | [[B:29]] 287
Texas operating | [[B:30]] 296
Texas planned | [[B:17]] 170
Georgia operating | [[B:9]] 94
Georgia planned | [[B:14]] 141
| Metric | Figure |
|---|---|
| Operational US data centers | More than 3,000 |
| Data centers in development | More than 1,500 |
| Virginia operating and planned | 398 and 287 |
| Texas operating and planned | 296 and 170 |
| Georgia operating and planned | 94 and 141 |
| PJM peak forecast increase from data centers (2027/28) | About 5,100 MW of 5,250 MW |
| MISO data center additions in forecast | About 18 GW |
Source: Pew Research Center, analysis of Data Center Map (April 13, 2026; data as of February 19, 2026); PJM Interconnection; NERC.
Pew counts more than 3,000 operating data centers and more than 1,500 in development. Virginia has 398 operating and 287 planned, Texas 296 and 170, and Georgia 94 operating but 141 planned. Georgia’s planned count exceeds its operating count, so its power demand could more than double. Most new sites are in rural areas, where transmission is thin.
Data centers explain most of the demand revisions. About 5,100 MW of PJM’s 5,250 MW peak forecast increase for 2027/28 came from data centers, and MISO counts about 18 GW of additions. Planned sites do not all get built, so forecasts swing. Some operators are also agreeing to curtail load at peak, and ERCOT cut its 2026 forecast by 1.9 GW on that basis.
Electricity Grid Capacity in the US FAQ 2026
Is the US electric grid able to meet demand in 2026?
Yes under normal conditions. NERC found every assessment area has adequate resources for a normal summer, with about 865 GW of peak demand and 58 GW of new resources.
Which regions face the highest grid risk in 2026?
New England, Saskatchewan’s SaskPower area and the Pacific Northwest portion of WECC face elevated risk in extreme heat, according to NERC’s 2026 summer assessment.
How much will US peak electricity demand grow by 2035?
NERC projects 224 GW of summer growth and 245 GW of winter growth, about 24% and 25% above current peaks.
How much new power capacity will the US add in 2026?
EIA projects 86 GW, a record. That compares with 53 GW in 2025. Solar is 43.4 GW and batteries are 24.3 GW.
Why is PJM short of capacity?
Data center demand is outrunning new supply. PJM’s 2028/29 auction left it 6,831 MW below its reliability requirement, with only 525 MW of new generation clearing.
What is the PJM capacity price in 2026?
The 2028/29 auction cleared at $325 per MW-day. The 2027/28 price was $333.44, and 2024/25 was $28.92.
How big is the US interconnection queue?
2,061 GW of generation and storage were waiting at the end of 2025, according to Berkeley Lab, down 10% from 2024.
How long does it take to connect a power plant to the grid?
The median project built in 2025 took more than 5 years from request to operation.
How much of the interconnection queue gets built?
About 13% of capacity requested from 2000 to 2020 reached operation by the end of 2025. 75% was withdrawn.
How many data centers are in the US?
More than 3,000 are operating and more than 1,500 are in development, according to Pew. Virginia has the most operating, with 398.
Does oil and gas supply affect electricity reliability?
Yes. Natural gas supplies a large share of generation, and gas plants make up 253 GW of the interconnection queue. For fuel-market context, see our report on Venezuela oil vs US oil production statistics.
What is PJM’s Reliability Backstop Procurement?
A one-time program proposed to buy up to 14.9 GW of new capacity through bilateral contracts and a central auction, to close the multi-year shortfall.
Disclaimer: The data research report we present here is based on information found from various sources. We are not liable for any financial loss, errors, or damages of any kind that may result from the use of the information herein. We acknowledge that though we try to report accurately, we cannot verify the absolute facts of everything that has been represented.
