Texas Latino voter statistics in the US 2026 show a large and politically divided bloc: Latinos are about 40.9% of Texas’s 31.7 million residents, an estimated 6.5 million are eligible to vote, and exit polls found Donald Trump won about 55% of the Texas Latino vote in 2024. In 2026, Democratic primary turnout surged in Latino areas, general election polls put Democrat James Talarico ahead of Republican Ken Paxton among Latino voters by 11 to 21 points, and 56% of Latino voters in an October poll said immigration enforcement has gone too far.
Texas Latino Voter in US 2026 – Introduction
Texas Latino voter statistics in the US 2026 matter because Latinos are the largest ethnic group in the state, and their votes moved sharply in 2024. Trump became the first Republican presidential candidate to carry Starr County, which is about 97% Latino, since 1892. Two years later, Democrats say Latino turnout in the March 3 primary points to a reversal, while Republicans caution that primary turnout is a poor guide to November.
The general election is on November 3, 2026, and early voting ran from October 19 through October 30. The main contests are the US Senate race between Talarico and Paxton, the governor’s race between Republican Greg Abbott and Democrat Gina Hinojosa, and the attorney general race. This report covers population, eligibility, turnout, the 2024 shift, 2026 polling and immigration enforcement data. Figures run through October 30, 2026. Poll results are labeled by pollster, and polls are estimates, not results.
Interesting Facts About Texas Latino Voters in US 2026
TEXAS POPULATION BY GROUP, JULY 2025 ESTIMATE (1 block = 2 percentage points)
Hispanic or Latino | ████████████████████▌ 40.9%
White, not Hispanic | ██████████████████▌ 37.3%
| Fact | Confirmed Data |
|---|---|
| Texas population, July 1, 2025 | 31,709,821 |
| Hispanic or Latino share | 40.9%, about 13.0 million people (calculated) |
| Latino eligible voters, 2024 | About 6.5 million, about one-third of Texas eligible voters (Pew) |
| Latino Texans registered, 2022 | 3.3 million, of whom 2.1 million voted |
| Trump’s share of Texas Latinos, 2024 | About 55% vs Harris 44% (exit polls) |
| Starr County, 2024 | Trump 57.7%, Harris 41.8% |
| Share of 2024 Texas voters who were Hispanic | Roughly one-quarter (CBS News) |
| Talarico vs Paxton among Latinos, Oct 2026 polls | Talarico ahead by 11 to 21 points |
| Latino voters saying enforcement has gone too far | 56% (N+ Univision/YouGov, Oct 13 to 21) |
| ICE detainees in Texas, Feb 2026 | 18,734, the most of any state (TRAC) |
Source: U.S. Census Bureau QuickFacts (V2025); Pew Research Center; NBC News and Texas Tribune; CBS News; N+ Univision/YouGov, October 2026; TRAC Immigration.
Latinos are now the largest group in Texas, ahead of non-Hispanic whites at 37.3%. The Census Bureau’s July 2025 estimate puts the Latino population near 13 million, up from about 12 million in 2022, when Latinos first outnumbered non-Hispanic whites in the state.
Population does not equal votes. Many Latino Texans are under 18 or not citizens, so the eligible electorate is much smaller than the population, and turnout among eligible Latino voters has lagged other groups. That gap is why both parties focus on registration and turnout, not only persuasion.
Texas Latino Population and Eligible Voters in 2026
LATINO TEXANS: ELIGIBLE, REGISTERED AND VOTING (MILLIONS) (1 block = 0.5 million people)
Population, 2025 | ██████████████████████████ ~13.0M
Eligible voters, 2024 | █████████████ 6.5M
Registered, 2022 | ██████▌ 3.3M
Voted, 2022 | ████ 2.1M
| Measure | Figure |
|---|---|
| Hispanic population, 2025 | About 13.0 million, 40.9% of Texans |
| Hispanic eligible voters, 2024 | About 6.5 million |
| Registered Latino voters, 2022 | 3.3 million |
| Latino voters who voted, 2022 | 2.1 million, about 64% of those registered |
| Harris County Hispanic residents | About 2.2 million, nearly half the county |
| Harris County Latinos eligible to vote | Less than half |
| Rio Grande Valley share of Texas population | About 3.5%, roughly 92% Latino |
| Texas counties with most Latinos | Harris, Bexar, Dallas, Hidalgo and El Paso |
Source: U.S. Census Bureau; UCLA Chicanx-Latinx Law Review citing Pew and NALEO; Pew Research Center; Latin Times; Reporting Texas; NBC News.
The numbers narrow at each step. About 13.0 million Latino Texans produce about 6.5 million eligible voters, and in 2022 only 3.3 million of the eligible group were registered. Of those, 2.1 million voted, a participation rate of about 64% among registered voters. Eligibility is held down by age and citizenship, which is why Harris County, with 2.2 million Hispanic residents, has far fewer Latino voters than residents.
The geography is uneven. Most Latino Texans live in urban areas, not the Rio Grande Valley, which holds about 3.5% of the state’s population. Analysts quoted by Reporting Texas warn that the Valley is a symbol of the Latino vote and not a representative sample of it.
Texas Latino Voter Turnout Statistics: 2022, 2024 and the 2026 Primary
TEXAS TURNOUT, 2024 GENERAL ELECTION (1 block = 2 percentage points)
Of registered voters | ██████████████████████████████▌ 61.15%
Of voting-age population | ████████████████████████▌ 49.65%
| Measure | Figure |
|---|---|
| 2024 statewide turnout, registered voters | 61.15%, down about 5.6 points from 2020 |
| 2024 statewide turnout, voting-age population | 49.65% |
| Hispanic share of 2024 voters | Roughly one-quarter |
| 2026 primary early voting, total | More than 2.5 million, a record for a midterm primary |
| Republican Senate primary voters, 2026 | Nearly 2.2 million |
| Cameron County early ballots, Feb 2026 | More than 25,000: about 18,000 Democratic, about 7,000 Republican |
| Early Latino primary voters who skipped the last primary | About one-third (CBS News) |
Source: Texas Secretary of State via Wikipedia; CBS News, March 2026; Baylor Lariat; KRGV; Axios; GPB.
Texas turnout in 2024 was 61.15% of registered voters, below 2020. Roughly a quarter of those who voted were Hispanic. In the March 3, 2026 primary, Democratic turnout rose sharply in heavily Latino areas, and Axios reported Democratic turnout up big in Rio Grande Valley counties while Republican turnout in Latino hubs slumped.
Primary turnout is a limited signal. Equis, a Democratic-aligned research group, cautions that primary turnout is a poor predictor of November results in Texas. CBS News found that a full third of Latino early primary voters had not voted in a recent primary, which suggests new participation, and that Latino turnout skewed heavily Democratic.
How Texas Latinos Voted in 2024: The Rio Grande Valley Shift
STARR COUNTY PRESIDENTIAL MARGIN (POINTS) (1 block = 4 points)
2012, Democratic | ██████████████████ D+73
2016, Democratic | ███████████████ D+60
2020, Democratic | █ D+5
2024, Republican | ████ R+16
| Measure | Figure |
|---|---|
| Trump, Texas Latino vote, 2024 (exit polls) | 55% |
| Harris, Texas Latino vote, 2024 (exit polls) | 44% |
| Trump, national Latino vote, 2024 (Edison exit poll) | 46%, up from 32% in 2020 |
| Starr County, 2024 | Trump 57.7%, Harris 41.8% |
| Hidalgo County, 2024 | Republican by 2.9 points; Democratic by 41.7 in 2012 |
| Rio Grande Valley counties won by Trump | All 4: Starr, Hidalgo, Cameron, Willacy |
| Texas border counties won by Trump | 14 of 18 |
| Statewide result | Trump about 56%, Harris about 43% |
| Beto O’Rourke’s Texas Latino share, 2018 (figure cited by Gina Hinojosa) | 64% |
Source: Edison Research exit polls; Texas Tribune; KWTX; City Journal; Daily Signal; Latin Times; Wikipedia.
Trump’s 55% among Texas Latinos was a high mark for a Republican, and the Valley was the clearest example. Starr County went from a 60-point Democratic margin in 2016 to a 16-point Republican margin in 2024. Local analysts pointed to jobs and economic frustration as the main drivers.
The shift was not uniform. In Harris County, Latino turnout capacity, not sentiment, drew the most attention, and Democrats set a benchmark of repeating O’Rourke’s 64% of Latinos in 2018. Exit polls are estimates with margins of error, and county results reflect many non-Latino voters as well.
2026 Texas Primary Results Among Latino Voters
CAMERON COUNTY EARLY BALLOTS, FEB 2026 (THOUSANDS) (1 block = 1,000 ballots)
Democratic ballot | ██████████████████ ~18,000
Republican ballot | ███████ ~7,000
| Measure | Result |
|---|---|
| Democratic Senate primary, March 3 | James Talarico won, defeating Jasmine Crockett |
| Republican Senate primary, March 3 | Cornyn and Paxton advanced to a May 26 runoff |
| Talarico, majority-Latino counties | Won by roughly 22 points (preliminary results, per news reports) |
| Talarico, urban majority-Latino precincts (Bexar, Dallas, Harris) | 54% of voters |
| Cornyn, majority-Hispanic regions, two-way vote | 52% to 55% |
| Paxton, urban majority-Hispanic precincts | 51% |
| 2024 Latino Trump voters backing a Republican, 2026 | 85%; 10% backed a Democrat (Equis) |
| Hispanic Democratic primary voters, Talarico vs Crockett | 55% to 42% (UnidosUS flash poll) |
Source: Equis Research; CBS News; Axios; UnidosUS flash poll of 200 Hispanic primary voters, Feb 25 to March 1, 2026.
Talarico won with strong Latino support, according to Equis analysis of the results. In urban Latino precincts he took 54% of the Democratic vote, and in majority-Latino counties he won by roughly 22 points in preliminary returns. The UnidosUS poll of 200 primary voters found Hispanic voters favored him over Crockett 55% to 42%, a small sample.
The Republican picture was mixed. Cornyn led Paxton in the Latino regions of the Valley and South Texas, while Paxton did better in urban Hispanic precincts. Paxton later won the May 26 runoff, setting up the Talarico-Paxton general election. Equis found 85% of 2024 Latino Trump voters still backing Republican candidates, so most of that group remained with the party.
Texas Latino Voter Polls for November 2026
TALARICO MARGIN OVER PAXTON AMONG LATINO VOTERS (POINTS) (1 block = 1 point)
UH Hobby School | ███████████ +11
UT/Texas Politics Project | █████████████ +13
N+ Univision/YouGov | ██████████████████ +18
NBC News | ██████████████████ +18
TPOR (Democratic-run) | █████████████████████ +21
| Poll | Dates | Latino Result, Senate |
|---|---|---|
| UT/Texas Politics Project | Sept 25 to Oct 5 | Talarico 54%, Paxton 41% (statewide 50-47) |
| N+ Univision/YouGov | Oct 13 to 21 | Talarico 55%, Paxton 37% (statewide 50-45) |
| NBC News | Fall 2026 (as reported by Newsweek) | Talarico 54%, Paxton 36% |
| University of Houston | Oct 2026 | Talarico ahead by 11 |
| Texas Public Opinion Research | Oct 15 to 18 | Talarico 60%, Paxton 39% |
| N+ Univision/YouGov, governor, Latino voters | Oct 13 to 21 | Hinojosa 52%, Abbott 43% |
| N+ Univision/YouGov, generic House, Latino voters | Oct 13 to 21 | Democrats 52%, Republicans 41% |
| Hart Research/TelevisaUnivision, 3 Texas House districts | Aug 6 to 17 | Democrats 56%, Republicans 36% |
Source: Fox 4 and Texas Politics Project; N+ Univision/YouGov (October 27, 2026); Newsweek; KUT, October 23, 2026; Texas Public Opinion Research; Newsweek on Hart Research.
Every recent poll in the table has Talarico ahead among Latino voters, by margins from 11 to 21 points depending on the pollster. TPOR is run by a Democrat, which the Texas outlets note, and its margins tend toward the high end. The N+ Univision poll of 980 Latino registered voters has a margin of error of about 3.7 points.
Statewide the races are close. The N+ Univision poll has Abbott ahead 48% to 46% overall, while Republicans lead the generic House ballot 48% to 45%, so Talarico runs ahead of the Democratic baseline. Latino voters are not uniform: in North Texas, Abbott led among Latinos by about 10 points, while Democrats had larger margins in Central, West and South Texas.
Texas Immigration Enforcement Statistics Affecting Latino Communities
ICE DETAINEES BY STATE, FY 2026 (FEB 5, 2026 DATA) (1 block = 500 detainees)
Texas | █████████████████████████████████████▌ 18,734
Louisiana | ████████████████▌ 8,244
California | ████████████▌ 6,459
Florida | ██████████▌ 5,231
Georgia | ████████▌ 4,227
| Measure | Figure |
|---|---|
| ICE detainees in Texas, Feb 2026 | 18,734, the most of any state |
| National ICE detainees, Feb 7, 2026 | 68,289; 73.6% had no criminal conviction |
| ICE arrests in Texas, Feb 2025 to Feb 2026 | More than 38,100 (Deportation Data Project) |
| Texas share of national ICE arrests, 2025 | About 24% |
| Texas vs California ICE arrests, Jan 2025 to Mar 2026 | Nearly three times higher |
| ICE arrests in Texas, February 2026 | About 7,100, including 1,660 in Houston |
| Houston arrests of people with convictions | 39% under Trump vs 61% under Biden (Texas Tribune) |
| State law | In 2026 county sheriffs who run jails must join the 287(g) program |
Source: TRAC Immigration, February 2026; Deportation Data Project via SA Current and Washington Examiner; Texas Tribune; Dallas Observer.
Texas is the center of federal immigration enforcement. It holds the most detainees, about 27% of the national total by TRAC’s February count, and had about 24% of national ICE arrests in 2025. Arrests roughly doubled between February 2025 and February 2026, and the Texas Tribune found the share of Houston arrests involving people with convictions fell from 61% to 39%.
The administration’s stated target was dangerous offenders, and the data show a growing share of arrests of people without convictions. A 2026 state law requires jail-operating sheriffs to take part in 287(g), which may raise local arrest numbers. Some analysts have suggested the administration avoided large raids in Texas for political reasons, an interpretation that is not confirmed.
What Texas Latino Voters Think About Immigration Enforcement
TEXAS LATINO VOTERS ON IMMIGRATION, OCTOBER 2026 (1 block = 2 percentage points)
Enforcement has gone too far | ████████████████████████████ 56%
Little or no confidence in ICE | ████████████████████████████▌ 57%
Worried they or someone close could be affected | █████████████████████▌ 43%
Want border security and path to citizenship together | ███████████████████████████████ 62%
Border security must come first | ██████████████▌ 29%
| Measure | Texas Latino Voters |
|---|---|
| Say enforcement has gone too far | 56% |
| Little or no confidence in ICE | 57% |
| Worried they or someone close could be directly affected | 43% |
| Worried about being stopped because of appearance | 38% |
| Prefer border security and a pathway together | 62% |
| Say border security must be fully addressed first | 29% |
| Trust on border security | Republicans 40%, Democrats 38% |
| Trust on protecting immigrant rights | Democrats 51%, Republicans 27% |
| Latino Texans approving Trump’s immigration approach (UH Hobby, Oct 2025) | 42%, vs white 62% and Black 23% |
| 2024 Latino Trump voters who would vote the same again | 65% |
Source: N+ Univision/YouGov, October 13 to 21, 2026 (980 Latino registered voters); University of Houston Hobby School, October 2025.
Latino voters hold mixed views. In the N+ Univision poll, 62% want border security and a pathway to citizenship handled together, 56% say enforcement has gone too far, and Republicans still edge Democrats 40% to 38% on border security. Among Texans overall, a ReconMR poll in October found 56% said ICE tactics have gone too far, while a UT poll found 48% approving Trump’s handling of border security.
The 2024 Trump coalition is divided. Among Latino Trump voters, 65% would make the same choice again, 13% have some doubts, 10% serious doubts and 8% regret it. Those with doubts were far more likely to back Talarico, about 44% versus 9% of those with no doubts, and economic stress also appears: 42% of Latino voters say their finances are worse than a year ago.
Frequently Asked Questions About Texas Latino Voters in US 2026
How many Latino voters are in Texas?
About 6.5 million Latino Texans were eligible to vote in 2024, about one-third of eligible voters, according to Pew. Texas’s Hispanic population is about 13.0 million, or 40.9%.
What percentage of Texas is Latino?
40.9% as of July 2025, according to Census Bureau estimates, compared with 37.3% for non-Hispanic whites.
How did Texas Latinos vote in 2024?
Exit polls found Trump won about 55% and Harris 44%. Trump also won all four Rio Grande Valley counties, including Starr County.
What was Latino turnout in Texas?
In 2022, 2.1 million of 3.3 million registered Latino voters voted. In 2024 Hispanics were roughly a quarter of Texas voters, and statewide turnout was 61.15% of registered voters.
Did Latinos help Talarico win the Texas primary?
Equis analysis said Hispanic voters were a key factor. He took 54% in urban majority-Latino precincts and won majority-Latino counties by roughly 22 points.
Who do Texas Latino voters support for Senate in 2026?
Polls show Democrat James Talarico ahead of Republican Ken Paxton among Latinos by 11 to 21 points, including 55% to 37% in the N+ Univision/YouGov poll.
What do Texas Latino voters think about ICE?
In an October poll, 57% had little or no confidence in ICE and 56% said immigration enforcement has gone too far.
How many people does ICE detain in Texas?
18,734 as of February 2026, the most of any state, according to TRAC.
How many ICE arrests happened in Texas?
More than 38,100 between February 2025 and February 2026, about 24% of national arrests in 2025, per the Deportation Data Project.
Is the Rio Grande Valley representative of Texas Latinos?
Not entirely. It holds about 3.5% of the state’s population, and most Latino Texans live in urban areas such as Harris, Bexar and Dallas counties.
When is the Texas election?
Tuesday, November 3, 2026. Early voting ran from October 19 through October 30.
Are Latino polls in Texas reliable?
They are estimates with margins of error, and results vary by pollster, sample and dates. Subgroup samples are smaller than statewide samples.
Disclaimer: The data research report we present here is based on information found from various sources. We are not liable for any financial loss, errors, or damages of any kind that may result from the use of the information herein. We acknowledge that though we try to report accurately, we cannot verify the absolute facts of everything that has been represented.
