Shoplifting in America 2026
Shoplifting in US has become one of the most expensive and fastest-growing categories of retail crime in the country, with American retailers projected to lose $49.8 billion to theft this year alone, up from $47.8 billion in 2025 and $45 billion in 2024. That steady year-over-year climb continues a trend that has run almost uninterrupted since 2019, when shoplifting losses sat at a fraction of today’s totals, and industry analysts now project the figure could top $59 billion by 2029 if current growth rates hold.
Behind that headline number sits a more complicated story: shoplifting is only one slice of a much larger retail shrink problem that reached $90 billion in inventory losses in 2025 alone, according to the Appriss Retail 2026 Total Retail Loss Benchmark Report, and a genuinely alarming shift toward organized, transnational theft operations rather than opportunistic individual shoplifters. This article compiles the newest verified numbers on shoplifting losses, organized retail crime, repeat offenders, and the violence increasingly tied to retail theft incidents, using data confirmed as of mid-2026.
Key Facts and Latest Shoplifting Statistics in US 2026
| Fact | Figure (Latest Verified Data) |
|---|---|
| Projected shoplifting losses (2026) | $49.8 billion |
| Shoplifting losses (2025, for comparison) | $47.8 billion |
| Shoplifting losses (2024, for comparison) | $45 billion |
| Total US retail inventory shrink (2025) | $90 billion |
| Increase in shoplifting incidents (2023 vs. 2019) | 93% |
| Increase in shoplifting incidents (2024 vs. 2023) | 18% |
| Retailers reporting transnational organized retail crime involvement | 67% |
| Share of theft incidents that go unreported to police | 64% |
| Projected shoplifting losses by 2029 | $59 billion+ |
Source: Capital One Shopping Research, “Shoplifting Statistics (2026): Retail Theft Data by State,” June 2026; Appriss Retail 2026 Total Retail Loss Benchmark Report; National Retail Federation, 2025 Impact of Retail Theft & Violence report.
The climb from $45 billion in 2024 to a projected $49.8 billion in 2026 represents roughly a 10.7% increase in just two years, a pace that has held remarkably steady even as retailers pour more money into surveillance, security staffing, and loss-prevention technology. That steady growth is part of a longer pattern dating back to 2019: shoplifting incidents rose 93% by 2023 compared to pre-pandemic levels, and even after that initial surge, incidents still climbed another 18% in 2024 alone, suggesting the problem has not yet found a plateau.
The $90 billion total retail shrink figure for 2025 is considerably larger than the shoplifting-specific number because shrink is a broader industry metric capturing employee theft, administrative errors, vendor fraud, and other inventory losses alongside shoplifting itself. With 67% of retailers now reporting involvement of transnational organized retail crime groups, according to the NRF’s 2025 survey of retailers representing roughly $1.3 trillion in annual sales, a quarter of all US retail activity, the nature of retail theft has clearly shifted from isolated shoplifting incidents toward a more organized, cross-border criminal enterprise.
Total Shoplifting Losses and Retail Shrink Statistics in US 2026
| Year | Shoplifting Losses | Total Retail Shrink |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | ~$70 billion (shrink, pandemic-driven spike) | — |
| 2021 | $68.89 billion (goods stolen) | — |
| 2022 | — | $112.1 billion |
| 2023 | — | ~$112 billion (record at the time) |
| 2024 | $45 billion | — |
| 2025 | $47.8 billion | $90 billion |
| 2026 (projected) | $49.8 billion | — |
| 2028–2029 (projected) | $55–$59 billion | — |
Source: Hanwha Vision, “Shoplifting Statistics You Need to Know in 2026,” citing Maptitude and National Retail Federation data; Appriss Retail 2026 Total Retail Loss Benchmark Report.
US Shoplifting Losses: Five-Year Trend
2024 ▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓ $45.0B
2025 ▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓ $47.8B
2026 ▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓ $49.8B (projected)
2029 ▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓ $59.0B+ (projected)
Comparing shoplifting-specific losses against total shrink year by year reveals an important distinction that headlines often blur together: the $112.1 billion shrink figure reported for 2022, still frequently cited as “the retail theft number,” actually includes employee theft, administrative error, and vendor fraud alongside shoplifting, meaning shoplifting’s own share of that total was considerably smaller than the headline suggested. Breaking down the 2025 Appriss data more precisely shows employee theft alone accounted for $26 billion (29% of shrink), while organized retail crime specifically contributed $9 billion (10% of shrink), illustrating just how much of the broader shrink number comes from sources other than shoplifting.
The preventable share of that $90 billion in 2025 shrink reaches 73%, according to Appriss, meaning retailers themselves estimate roughly $66 billion of last year’s losses could theoretically have been avoided with better prevention systems, staffing, and technology. That gap between what is lost and what is considered preventable is precisely why loss-prevention spending has become such an urgent budget priority across the retail industry, even as the raw shoplifting numbers alone continue climbing year after year regardless of that increased investment.
Organized Retail Crime (ORC) Statistics in US 2026
| ORC Metric | Figure |
|---|---|
| ORC’s specific share of total retail shrink (2025) | 10% (~$9 billion) |
| Broader “organized retail crime” loss estimates cited in press coverage | ~$45 billion annually (often conflates ORC with general shoplifting) |
| Increase in ORC incidents (2020–2024) | +27% |
| Increase in ORC incidents (2023–2024, among retailers able to track it) | +52% |
| Retailers reporting transnational ORC group involvement | 67% |
| Retailers supporting federal ORC legislation | 80% |
| Average loss per $1 billion in retail sales tied to ORC | $703,320 |
Source: NRF 2025 Impact of Retail Theft & Violence report; Avigilon, “Shoplifting Statistics 2026: Retail Theft Facts and Trends,” February 2026; getsafeandsound.com, “25 Shocking Retail Theft Statistics,” March 2026.
It’s worth flagging that published ORC loss estimates vary widely depending on definition: some industry sources cite a broad $45 billion annual ORC figure, while Appriss Retail’s more granular 2026 benchmark attributes only $9 billion, or 10% of shrink, specifically to organized retail crime as distinct from general shoplifting. This discrepancy likely reflects looser press usage of “organized retail crime” as a catch-all term for any coordinated theft, versus Appriss’s stricter definition isolating ORC from broader shoplifting activity, a distinction retailers and policymakers should keep in mind when comparing figures across different reports.
What is consistent across sources is the direction of travel: ORC incidents grew 27% between 2020 and 2024, and among retailers specifically able to track the metric, that growth accelerated to 52% between just 2023 and 2024 alone. With 67% of retailers now reporting transnational criminal group involvement in the theft they experience, and 80% supporting new federal legislation to combat it, the retail industry’s own data suggests organized retail crime has evolved from a regional nuisance into a genuinely international criminal enterprise that individual store-level security measures are increasingly unable to fully address on their own.
Shoplifting Incident and Repeat Offender Statistics in US 2026
| Metric | Figure |
|---|---|
| Increase in shoplifting incidents (2023 vs. 2019) | 93% |
| Increase in shoplifting incidents (2024 vs. 2023) | 18% |
| Increase in shoplifters apprehended (2023 vs. 2019) | 64% |
| Dollar loss per incident increase (2019 to 2020) | 71% |
| Share of incidents attributed to repeat offenders | ~25% |
| Demographic most likely to shoplift | Juveniles aged 12–16 |
| Retailers more concerned about individual shoplifters (2024 vs. 2023) | 49% |
| Retailers more concerned about group/organized shoplifters (2024 vs. 2023) | 17% |
Source: Capital One Shopping Research, June 2026; getsafeandsound.com, “25 Shocking Retail Theft Statistics,” March 2026.
If you’re researching how retail theft trends compare with other categories of business financial distress, the Business Bankruptcy Statistics in US report offers relevant context on how rising losses of this scale can push already-thin retail margins toward insolvency.
Shoplifting Incident Growth Since 2019
2019 baseline ▓▓▓▓ 100% (reference year)
2023 (vs. 2019) ▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓ +93%
2024 (vs. 2023) ▓▓▓▓▓ +18%
The finding that repeat offenders account for roughly 25% of all shoplifting incidents underscores why many retailers have shifted toward stricter store-banning policies and civil demand letters rather than relying solely on police intervention, since a relatively small pool of chronic shoplifters appears responsible for a disproportionate share of total incidents. That pattern, combined with data showing juveniles aged 12 to 16 are the demographic most likely to shoplift, has pushed some retailers and school districts toward earlier intervention and education programs aimed at preventing theft habits before they become entrenched.
The gap between 49% of retailers reporting greater concern about individual shoplifters in 2024 versus just 17% citing greater concern about organized group theft is a genuinely counterintuitive finding given how much media attention organized “flash mob” retail crime receives, and it suggests that for many retailers, the day-to-day operational burden of shoplifting still comes overwhelmingly from individual opportunistic theft rather than coordinated criminal rings, even as the dollar value of organized crime losses continues climbing in parallel.
Violence and Safety Statistics Tied to Shoplifting in US 2026
| Metric | Figure |
|---|---|
| Retailers reporting increased violence/aggression tied to shoplifting | 91% |
| Increase in threats and acts of violence during shoplifting incidents | +17% |
| Share of workplace homicides occurring in retail settings | 6% |
| Share of theft incidents occurring in stores lacking adequate surveillance | 75% |
| Share of theft incidents that go unreported to law enforcement | 64% |
| Influence of viral social media shoplifting content on future incidents | ~10% |
Source: buildingsecurity.com, “Retail Theft & Shrinkage Statistics 2026,” April 2026; getsafeandsound.com, “50 Shocking Shoplifting Statistics,” March 2026.
For readers interested in how retail crime trends compare with broader national violent crime patterns, the Homicide Rate Statistics in the U.S report offers relevant context on how retail settings fit into the wider picture of workplace and public violence.
Retailer-Reported Safety Concerns (2026)
Increased violence/aggression tied to theft 91%
Stores lacking adequate surveillance 75%
Theft incidents unreported to police 64%
The finding that 91% of retailers report increased aggression tied to shoplifting incidents, alongside a measured 17% rise in actual threats and violence, points to a retail environment where confrontations over theft are becoming both more frequent and more dangerous for frontline workers, a trend that has pushed many chains to adopt strict “do not confront” policies for staff regardless of what they witness. That 6% of all workplace homicides occur specifically in retail settings underscores that this is not merely a financial or inventory problem but a genuine occupational safety concern for the millions of Americans working retail jobs.
The 64% of theft incidents that go unreported to police creates a significant data gap that likely means official crime statistics understate the true scale of the shoplifting problem, since many retailers have concluded that reporting minor incidents rarely results in prosecution and instead simply consumes staff time better spent on other loss-prevention priorities. Combined with 75% of theft occurring in stores lacking adequate surveillance, the data suggests that while advanced security technology exists and is proven effective, a large share of the retail sector still operates without the coverage needed to deter or document theft in the first place.
State-Level Retail Theft and Felony Threshold Statistics in US 2026
| Metric | Figure |
|---|---|
| State tax revenue lost to retail theft (2022) | $4.345 billion |
| Average state felony theft threshold | $1,156 |
| Return fraud losses (2025) | $100 billion |
| Return fraud as share of total merchandise returns | 15.2% |
| Retailers experiencing shoplifted merchandise being returned | 48% |
| Most common return fraud type (“wardrobing”) | 60% of retailers affected |
Source: Capital One Shopping Research, “Shoplifting Statistics (2026): Retail Theft Data by State,” June 2026.
For readers examining how these losses intersect with the retail workforce itself, the Workers’ Compensation Statistics in US report provides relevant figures on claims tied to workplace incidents, including those in high-theft retail environments.
Retail Theft's Broader Financial Footprint (2025)
State tax revenue lost (2022) $4.345 billion
Return fraud losses (2025) $100 billion
Return fraud share of returns 15.2%
State governments themselves absorb a meaningful share of the cost of retail theft, having lost an estimated $4.345 billion in tax revenue in 2022 alone, a figure that reflects both the sales tax retailers never collect on stolen merchandise and the broader economic drag theft places on retail profitability and, by extension, corporate tax contributions. The wide variation in state felony theft thresholds, averaging $1,156 nationally but ranging considerably by state, has become a genuinely contentious policy debate, with retailers arguing that higher thresholds in some states effectively decriminalize mid-level theft by keeping it classified as a misdemeanor regardless of how frequently it occurs.
Return fraud, while a separate category from shoplifting itself, adds another $100 billion in losses for 2025, with 15.2% of all merchandise returns now considered fraudulent in some way. Notably, 48% of retailers report experiencing returns of merchandise that was originally shoplifted, a specific overlap between theft and return fraud that shows these two loss categories are increasingly intertwined rather than entirely separate problems, complicating retailers’ efforts to address either issue in isolation.
Retail Theft Projections and Future Trends in US 2026
| Metric | Figure |
|---|---|
| Projected shoplifting losses by 2028 | $55 billion |
| Projected shoplifting losses by 2029 | $59 billion+ |
| 2025 shoplifting loss increase vs. 2024 | +6.2% |
| Retailers citing rising consumer prices as a theft driver | Widely cited across industry surveys |
| Categories seeing increased targeting due to inflation | Personal care products, OTC medications |
Source: Hanwha Vision, “Shoplifting Statistics You Need to Know in 2026,” January 2026; Capital One Shopping Research, June 2026.
Shoplifting Loss Projections Through 2029
2026 ▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓ $49.8B
2028 ▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓ $55B (projected)
2029 ▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓ $59B+ (projected)
The projected climb from $49.8 billion in 2026 to $55 billion by 2028 and past $59 billion by 2029 implies shoplifting losses could grow by roughly 18% to 19% over just three years if current trends hold, a trajectory that assumes neither a significant policy intervention nor a major shift in retailer prevention strategy meaningfully slows the pattern established since 2019. Industry analysts consistently point to rising consumer prices as a key driver reshaping what gets stolen, with previously low-risk categories like personal care products and over-the-counter medications increasingly becoming theft targets simply because inflation has made everyday essentials valuable enough to justify the risk for some shoplifters.
Whether these projections prove accurate will likely depend heavily on factors that are difficult to forecast precisely, including state-level policy changes to felony thresholds, the pace of AI-driven surveillance adoption across the industry, and whether the recent acceleration in organized retail crime specifically continues at its current 52% year-over-year growth rate or begins to plateau as law enforcement and federal legislation catch up. For now, every available data source points in the same direction: shoplifting in the United States remains a growing, not stabilizing, problem heading into the second half of this decade.
Disclaimer: The data research report we present here is based on information found from various sources. We are not liable for any financial loss, errors, or damages of any kind that may result from the use of the information herein. We acknowledge that though we try to report accurately, we cannot verify the absolute facts of everything that has been represented.
