Migrant crime statistics in the US in 2026 come from a handful of states and surveys, not a national count by immigration status, and researchers dispute what they show. One Cato Institute analysis of Texas data found a homicide conviction rate of 2.2 per 100,000 for unauthorized immigrants against 3.0 for native-born Americans from 2013 to 2022, while the Center for Immigration Studies says undercounting hides higher rates. Nationally, FBI data show murders fell 18.1% in 2025 to 4.1 per 100,000, and 70.6% of people in ICE detention on July 11, 2026 had no criminal conviction.
Migrant Crime in US 2026 – Introduction
Migrant crime statistics drive some of the loudest arguments in American politics. Voters hear one claim that immigrants commit crime at lower rates than US-born citizens, and another that the official numbers hide the opposite. Both sides cite real data. The problem is that the federal government does not publish arrest or conviction rates by immigration status. That leaves researchers with state records, prison surveys and enforcement files, each with gaps.
The stakes rose in 2026. About 14 million unauthorized immigrants lived in the US in 2023, and enforcement has expanded sharply since. At the same time, national violent crime fell at the fastest pace on record. This report sets out what the migrant crime statistics show, who disputes them, and where the data run out. Every number appears with its limits.
Interesting Facts about Migrant Crime in US 2026
| Fact | 2026 Data |
|---|---|
| Unauthorized immigrant population, 2023 | About 14 million |
| Native-born incarceration rate, 2024 | 1,195 per 100,000 |
| Unauthorized immigrant incarceration rate, 2024 | 674 per 100,000 |
| Texas homicide conviction rate, native-born, 2013 to 2022 | 3.0 per 100,000 |
| Texas homicide conviction rate, unauthorized, 2013 to 2022 | 2.2 per 100,000 |
| People in ICE detention, July 11, 2026 | 65,765 |
| Detainees with no criminal conviction | 70.6% |
| US murder rate, 2025 | 4.1 per 100,000 |
Source: Cato Institute, March 25, 2026 and 2024 Texas analysis; Pew Research Center, August 2025; TRAC Immigration, July 2026; FBI Reported Crimes in the Nation, 2025. Percentage gaps are our calculation. Center for Immigration Studies figures are a contested alternative reading.
The numbers lean one way in most peer-reviewed and think-tank studies, and one dissent stands out. The Cato Institute puts the unauthorized immigrant incarceration rate at 674 per 100,000 against 1,195 for native-born Americans. In Texas, it reports a homicide conviction rate of 2.2 against 3.0. The Center for Immigration Studies reads the same Texas records and finds a rate 20% above the state average, because many unauthorized immigrants are never flagged.
None of these figures is a national count. The enforcement numbers tell a different story from the crime rates. Of the 65,765 people in ICE detention on July 11, 2026, 70.6% had no criminal conviction. National crime fell as well, with a murder rate of 4.1 per 100,000 in 2025. Each row reflects a different population, year and method, so no single number settles the debate. Each row is one lens, not a verdict.
Immigrant vs Native-Born Incarceration Rates in US 2026
| Group | Rate per 100,000 | Year | Gap vs Native-Born |
|---|---|---|---|
| Native-born Americans | 1,195 | 2024 | Benchmark |
| Unauthorized immigrants, base estimate | 674 | 2024 | -43.6% |
| Unauthorized immigrants, middle test | 759 | 2024 | -36.5% |
| Unauthorized immigrants, highest test | 957 | 2024 | -19.9% |
| Native-born Americans | 1,221 | 2023 | Benchmark |
| Unauthorized immigrants | 613 | 2023 | -49.8% |
| Legal immigrants | 319 | 2023 | -73.9% |
Source: Cato Institute briefing paper, March 25, 2026, using American Community Survey microdata; Cato figures for 2023 as reported by CBS Austin. Gaps are our calculation.
The Cato analysis uses Census survey data to estimate who is incarcerated and who is an unauthorized immigrant. Its 2024 base estimate is 674 per 100,000 for unauthorized immigrants and 1,195 for native-born Americans, a gap of 43.6%. Sensitivity tests raise the unauthorized rate to 759 and 957. Even the highest test stays 19.9% below the native-born rate. For 2023, the figures were 613, 1,221 and 319 for legal immigrants.
Critics question the method. The Crime Prevention Research Center argues that survey respondents can misreport citizenship, and that people classed as legal immigrants because they report benefits or citizenship may include unauthorized ones. A 2018 Census Bureau working paper found evidence consistent with such misreporting. The center also says the sensitivity tests do not check whether incarcerated respondents misreport more often. The direction of any bias is therefore disputed.
Texas Homicide Conviction Rates by Immigration Status 2013 to 2022
TEXAS HOMICIDE CONVICTION RATE PER 100,000, 2013-2022 (each █ = 0.1)
Native-born Americans | ██████████████████████████████ 3.0
Unauthorized immigrants | ██████████████████████ 2.2
Legal immigrants | ████████████ 1.2
| Measure | Native-Born | Unauthorized | Legal Immigrants |
|---|---|---|---|
| Homicide conviction rate, 2013 to 2022 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 1.2 |
| Homicide conviction rate, 2022 | 4.9 | 3.1 | 1.8 |
| Homicide arrest rate, 2013 to 2022 | 6.2 | 3.4 | 2.6 |
Source: Cato Institute analysis of Texas Department of Public Safety data, 2013 to 2022, rates per 100,000 people. Cato cautions that Texas does not always confirm immigration status for minor offenses.
Texas is one of the few states that records immigration status in arrest and conviction data, which makes it the most cited source. Across 2013 to 2022, the Cato analysis found a homicide conviction rate of 3.0 per 100,000 for native-born Americans, 2.2 for unauthorized immigrants and 1.2 for legal immigrants. By our calculation, unauthorized immigrants were 26.7% below the native-born rate and legal immigrants were 60.0% below.
The 2022 figures were higher for everyone: 4.9, 3.1 and 1.8. Arrest rates for homicide followed the same order at 6.2, 3.4 and 2.6. The author cautions that Texas is one state, and other states may differ. He also notes that Texas does not always investigate immigration status for minor offenses. Homicide data are seen as more reliable than other offenses because most murders are solved.
Texas Data Dispute: Cato vs Center for Immigration Studies 2026
HOMICIDE CONVICTION RATE GAP, UNAUTHORIZED IMMIGRANTS (each █ = 1%)
Cato, 2015 data, first estimate | -████████████████ -16%
Cato, revised estimate | -███████████████ -15%
CIS, 2015 data, 2021 update | +████████████████████ +20%
| Question | Cato Position | CIS Position |
|---|---|---|
| 2015 homicide conviction rate, unauthorized | 16% below natives, later 15% below | 20% above the state rate |
| How status is identified | DPS flags status through DHS records | Many people are never flagged |
| All-crime conviction rate | About 50% below natives in 2015 | Estimate is practically meaningless |
| Effect of updated data | Rate stays lower | Rate rises over time |
Source: Cato Institute, 2023 and 2024; Center for Immigration Studies, October 2022. The two groups compare against different baselines: native-born Texans for Cato, the overall state rate for CIS.
The dispute turns on counting. The Center for Immigration Studies says DHS identifies unauthorized immigrants in Texas data only if they met immigration officials before, so many go unflagged at arrest. As more of them are identified later, it argues, their conviction rate climbs. For 2015, it found a homicide rate 20% above the state rate using data requested in 2021. Cato’s first estimate showed 16% below.
Cato responded with more data requests and revised its figure to 15% below the native-born rate, which it called closer than before. It still finds unauthorized immigrants below natives. The two sides also use different baselines, native-born Texans versus the statewide rate, which makes the 20% and 15% figures hard to compare directly. Neither side disputes that the identification gap exists. They disagree on its size.
ICE Detainees With Criminal Records in US 2026
ICE DETAINEES BY CRIMINAL RECORD, JULY 11, 2026 (each █ = 2%)
No criminal conviction | ███████████████████████████████████ 70.6%
Any conviction | ██████████████ 29.4%
| Measure | Figure | Date or Period |
|---|---|---|
| People in ICE detention | 65,765 | July 11, 2026 |
| Detainees with no conviction | 46,436 (70.6%) | July 11, 2026 |
| Detainees with convictions only | About 26% | January 2026 |
| Detainees with pending charges only | About 26% | January 2026 |
| Detainees with violent convictions | About 5% | Fiscal year 2025 |
| Detainees with violent or property convictions | About 8% | Fiscal year 2025 |
Source: TRAC Immigration, July 2026; PolitiFact, January 23, 2026; Cato Institute analysis of ICE data, 2025. The 29.4% any-conviction share is our calculation.
ICE detention numbers describe enforcement, not crime rates. On July 11, 2026, 70.6% of the 65,765 people held had no criminal conviction, and many convicted detainees had only minor offenses such as traffic violations. In January 2026, about 26% had convictions and another 26% had pending charges, so about 52% had either. The Homeland Security Secretary had said 70% had convictions or pending charges, and PolitiFact found that figure higher than the data.
The share with convictions fell over time. FactCheck.org found that about 54% of detainees had convictions in February 2025, against about 29% in January 2026. Cato analysts using leaked ICE data found only about 5% of detainees with violent convictions and 8% with violent or property convictions. Officials have stressed arrests of people with criminal records, but ICE’s own data show a mixed population that grew to include many people with no record.
ICE Arrests With Criminal Convictions Over Time in US 2025 and 2026
SHARE WITH CRIMINAL CONVICTIONS, EARLIER VS LATER PERIOD (each █ = 2%)
ICE arrests, first 3 months | ██████████████████████ 44.7%
ICE arrests, 3 months to mid-Oct | ████████████████ 31.8%
Detainees, February 2025 | ███████████████████████████ 54%
Detainees, January 2026 | ███████████████ 29%
Detainees, Cato, January 2025 | ███████████████████████████████ 62%
Detainees, Cato, November 2025 | ████████████████ 31%
| Measure | Earlier Period | Later Period |
|---|---|---|
| ICE arrestees with convictions | 44.7% (first three months) | 31.8% (three months to mid-October 2025) |
| Detainees with convictions, DHS data | About 54% (February 2025) | About 29% (January 2026) |
| ICE-arrested detainees with convictions, Cato | 62% (January 2025) | 31% (November 2025) |
| Detainees with no conviction or charge, Cato | 6% (January 2025) | 40% (November 2025) |
Source: FactCheck.org, January 2026, using Deportation Data Project and ICE data; Cato Institute analysis of ICE statistics, December 2025. Different data sets use different definitions.
Two data sets show the same drift. FactCheck.org found that the share of ICE arrestees with convictions fell from 44.7% in the first three months of the second Trump term to 31.8% in the three months to mid-October 2025. Over the first full year, about 36.5% of arrestees had prior convictions, and a New York Times analysis found 37% through October 15. DHS detainee data show 54% with convictions in February 2025 and 29% in January 2026.
Cato’s analysis of ICE statistics shows a sharper swing. Among detainees arrested by ICE, the share with convictions fell from 62% to 31% between January and November 2025, while the share with no conviction or charge rose from 6% to 40%. PolitiFact found that 64% of everyone detained since January 2025 had a conviction or pending charge. The data do not say whether the mix reflects policy or operations, only that it changed.
FBI National Crime Trends in US 2025 and 2026
CHANGE IN REPORTED CRIME, 2024 TO 2025 (each █ = 1%)
Robbery | -███████████████████ -18.5%
Murder offenses | -██████████████████ -18.1%
Property crime | -████████████ -12.4%
Violent crime (prelim.) | -█████████ -9.3%
Rape | -████████ -7.6%
Aggravated assault | -███████ -7.2%
| Offense | Change, 2024 to 2025 |
|---|---|
| Violent crime, preliminary estimate | -9.3% |
| Murder and nonnegligent manslaughter | -18.1% |
| Robbery | -18.5% |
| Rape | -7.6% |
| Aggravated assault | -7.2% |
| Property crime | -12.4% |
| Murder rate, 2025 | 4.1 per 100,000 |
Source: FBI Reported Crimes in the Nation, 2025, released August 14, 2026; preliminary release, May 2026. The data cover agencies serving about 96% of the US population.
Crime fell across the board in 2025. Murder offenses dropped an estimated 18.1%, robbery 18.5%, rape 7.6% and aggravated assault 7.2%. Property crime fell 12.4%. The murder rate of 4.1 per 100,000 ties the lowest on record, set in 1955 and 1956. Data came from more than 17,000 agencies covering about 96% of the population.
The FBI does not report offenders by immigration status, so these figures cannot show whether immigrants drove the decline or resisted it. Axios found that violent crime fell in every population group, from the largest cities to rural counties. The causes are contested. Supporters of the enforcement push credit arrests and deportations, while an Axios analysis found the drop was broad across city and rural areas and hard to attribute to any president or policy. Violent crime and murder have fallen every year since peaking in 2022.
Unauthorized Immigrants in New York Prisons 2026: A Counter Reading
SHARE OF NEW YORK POPULATION VS PRISON POPULATION (each █ = 0.5%)
Share of state population, high estimate | ████████ 4.15%
Share of state population, low estimate | ███████ 3.4%
Share of state prison population | ████████████████████████████ 14.0%
| Metric | Figure | Source Note |
|---|---|---|
| Unauthorized immigrants incarcerated, December 2025 | 7,113 | Crime Prevention Research Center |
| Share of state inmate population | 14.0% | Crime Prevention Research Center |
| Estimated unauthorized population in New York | 676,000 to 825,000 | Estimates cited by the center |
| Share of New York’s 19.99 million residents | 3.4% to 4.15% | Center’s calculation |
| Implied overrepresentation | At least 3.4 times | Center’s calculation |
Source: Crime Prevention Research Center, December 2025 and October 25, 2026, using New York state corrections figures and population estimates the center cites. These are one advocacy group’s calculations and are disputed by other researchers.
The Crime Prevention Research Center points to New York as the strongest evidence for higher rates. It counts 7,113 unauthorized immigrants in state prisons in December 2025, or 14.0% of inmates, against a population share of 3.4% to 4.15%. That implies overrepresentation of at least 3.4 times. The center says the figure is an undercount, because New York does not actively identify status and ICE removes some offenders before incarceration.
Caveats apply. The population estimates range from 676,000 to 825,000, and the ratio depends on which is used. A single state snapshot cannot be compared directly to the Texas rates or the survey-based Cato estimates, which use different methods. Prison counts also reflect arrest and sentencing practices, and they include people held on offenses of any seriousness. The finding does show how a state-level reading can point the other way.
ICE Average Detention Length and Survey Bias in US 2026
AVERAGE ICE DETENTION LENGTH IN DAYS (each █ = 2 days)
Fiscal 2018 | ████████████████████ 39.4
Fiscal 2019 | █████████████████ 34.3
Fiscal 2022 | █████████████ 25.8
Fiscal 2023 | ███████████████████ 37.4
Fiscal 2024 | ███████████████████████ about 47
| Fiscal Year | Average Detention, Days |
|---|---|
| 2018 | 39.4 |
| 2019 | 34.3 |
| 2022 | 25.8 |
| 2023 | 37.4 |
| 2024 | About 47 |
Source: Crime Prevention Research Center, October 25, 2026, citing published ICE statistics. The rise from fiscal 2022 to 2024 is our calculation, about 82%.
Detention length matters for survey-based estimates. People held in ICE custody are rarely captured in household surveys, so short stays mean few detained immigrants appear in the Census data. Average stays fell to 25.8 days in fiscal 2022, then rose to about 47 days in fiscal 2024, a rise of about 82%. Earlier years ran at 39.4 days in 2018 and 34.3 in 2019, and fiscal 2023 reached 37.4.
The Crime Prevention Research Center says Cato acknowledges one bias that favors its conclusion: detained immigrants are rarely surveyed, which would understate unauthorized incarceration. The center argues that bias is small because stays are short. Longer recent stays could make it larger, though no study has measured that.
Data Gaps in Migrant Crime Statistics in US 2026
STATES PUBLISHING CRIME DATA BY IMMIGRATION STATUS (each █ = 1 state)
Texas, Georgia, Oklahoma | ███ 3
All other states | ███████████████████████████████████████████████ 47
| Data Source | Records Immigration Status? | Main Limit |
|---|---|---|
| FBI Uniform Crime Reporting | No | No offender status data |
| Texas Department of Public Safety | Yes, through DHS checks | Some people never flagged |
| American Community Survey | Self-reported citizenship | Misreporting of status |
| ICE enforcement data | Yes | Reflects who ICE targets |
| Pew population estimates | Estimated, not counted | About 14 million in 2023 |
Source: Cato Institute, March 2026; Crime Prevention Research Center, October 2026; Census Bureau working paper CES-WP-18-38; Pew Research Center, August 2025. The count of 47 other states is our calculation.
Cato names three states with usable status data: Texas, Georgia and Oklahoma. That leaves 47 states without comparable records. Texas has kept data on arrests and convictions by status since 2011, and Oklahoma began publishing status data in recent years. Texas flags still depend on DHS encounters. The Census survey asks people to report citizenship, and a 2018 Census paper found evidence that noncitizens sometimes misreport it. The federal FBI program does not record offender status at all.
Detention adds another wrinkle, because surveys rarely capture people held by ICE. Cato says its sensitivity tests raise the unauthorized rate but leave it below the native-born rate. Both agree that no single dataset is complete, which is why the published rates vary so widely.
Frequently Asked Questions About Migrant Crime in US 2026
Do immigrants commit more crime than US-born citizens in 2026?
Most studies find lower rates for immigrants, but data are limited. Cato finds unauthorized immigrants had a 674 per 100,000 incarceration rate versus 1,195 for native-born Americans. Critics dispute the method.
What do Texas crime statistics show for immigrants in 2026?
Cato analysis of 2013 to 2022 data shows a homicide conviction rate of 2.2 per 100,000 for unauthorized immigrants, 1.2 for legal immigrants and 3.0 for native-born Americans.
Why does the Center for Immigration Studies disagree in 2026?
It says Texas data miss unauthorized immigrants who are never flagged, and that an updated 2015 count shows a homicide rate 20% above the state average.
Does the FBI track crime by immigration status in 2026?
No. The FBI’s national crime reports cover offenses and rates, but they do not break offenders out by immigration status.
What share of ICE detainees have criminal convictions in 2026?
On July 11, 2026, 70.6% of the 65,765 people in ICE detention had no criminal conviction, according to TRAC.
How many ICE detainees have violent convictions in 2026?
Cato analysis of ICE data found about 5% with violent convictions and 8% with violent or property convictions during fiscal 2025.
Did crime fall in the US in 2025?
Yes. The FBI reported murder down 18.1%, robbery down 18.5% and violent crime down an estimated 9.3% from 2024.
How many unauthorized immigrants live in the US in 2026?
Pew Research Center estimated about 14 million in 2023, a record.
Which states report crime data by immigration status in 2026?
Cato names Texas, Georgia and Oklahoma. Most other states do not publish comparable figures.
Are unauthorized immigrants overrepresented in New York prisons in 2026?
The Crime Prevention Research Center says they were 14.0% of inmates in December 2025 against a 3.4% to 4.15% population share. Other researchers dispute this approach.
Why are migrant crime statistics hard to trust in 2026?
Sources count different populations, rely on self-reported citizenship or incomplete flags, and cover only some states. Researchers on both sides agree no dataset is complete.
What share of ICE arrests involve people with criminal convictions in 2026?
FactCheck.org found about 36.5% of people ICE arrested in the first year of the second Trump term had prior convictions. A New York Times analysis found 37% through October 15, 2025.
Is the Texas homicide arrest rate lower for immigrants in 2026?
Cato’s 2013 to 2022 data show 3.4 arrests per 100,000 for unauthorized immigrants, 2.6 for legal immigrants and 6.2 for native-born Americans.
How reliable are survey-based incarceration estimates for immigrants in 2026?
They rely on self-reported citizenship. The Crime Prevention Research Center says misreporting could understate unauthorized rates, while Cato says its tests still leave them below native-born rates.
Do ICE detention numbers represent all unauthorized immigrants in 2026?
No. ICE held 65,765 people on July 11, 2026, about 0.5% of the estimated 14 million unauthorized immigrants in 2023, by our calculation. Detention reflects who ICE targets, not who offends.
Disclaimer: The data research report we present here is based on information found from various sources. We are not liable for any financial loss, errors, or damages of any kind that may result from the use of the information herein. We acknowledge that though we try to report accurately, we cannot verify the absolute facts of everything that has been represented.
