Holiday Shopping Spending in US is forecast to reach $1.013 trillion in November and December 2026, up 4.2% from $972 billion in 2025, according to the National Retail Federation. The average US household plans to spend $1,654 this holiday season, and the average consumer expects to spend $708 on gifts.
Holiday Shopping Spending in America 2026 – Introduction
Holiday Shopping Spending in US will pass $1 trillion for the first time in 2026. The National Retail Federation (NRF) forecasts $1.013 trillion in retail sales from November 1 to December 31. Higher prices explain about half of that gain. Real spending growth explains the rest. Households say they feel squeezed, yet they keep buying. The University of Michigan sentiment index read 46.3 in early October, close to the record low of 44.8 set in May 2026. Shoppers still plan to protect their gift budgets.
This report brings together the latest figures from the NRF, Deloitte, PwC, Adobe Analytics, the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the University of Michigan. It covers the average budget per household, gift costs per person, popular gift categories, shopping timing, online sales on Black Friday and Cyber Monday, and the economic pressure behind every purchase. Each number carries a named source. Where forecasts differ, the report explains the gap.
Interesting Fact(s) About Holiday Shopping Spending in US 2026
NRF Holiday Retail Sales, Nov 1 - Dec 31 (US$ billions)
2025 ████████████████████████████████████████ 972
2026 ██████████████████████████████████████████ 1,013 (forecast)| Fact | 2026 Data |
|---|---|
| Total holiday retail sales forecast | $1.013 trillion |
| Growth over 2025 | 4.2% |
| Average household holiday budget | $1,654 |
| Average gift spend per consumer | $708 |
| Online holiday sales forecast | $275.1 billion |
| Cyber Monday online forecast | $15.1 billion |
| Shoppers whose plans the economy affects | 56% |
| CPI inflation, September 2026 | 3.7% |
Source: National Retail Federation, Deloitte, PwC, Adobe Analytics, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (October 2026 releases)
The $1.013 trillion forecast is the headline figure. It makes 2026 the first season above $1 trillion in the NRF’s measure. The household budget of $1,654 and the gift budget of $708 answer a different question. They come from consumer surveys and show what shoppers plan to spend on the holidays, not total retail sales.
Two numbers explain the mood. Inflation rose to 3.7% in September, up from 3.4% in August. Meanwhile 56% of holiday shoppers told the NRF the economy will affect their plans. Forecasts still point up. Shoppers cut travel, trade down on lodging and hunt for deals, but they protect the gifts.
Total Holiday Retail Sales Forecast in US 2026 | NRF Holiday Spending Forecast
NRF Holiday Sales Growth vs Prior Year (%)
2021 ██████████████████████████████████████ 12.6
2025 █████████ 3.1
2026 █████████████ 4.2 (forecast)| Metric | 2025 | 2026 Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Holiday retail sales | $972 billion | $1.013 trillion |
| Year-over-year growth | 3.1% | 4.2% |
| Seasonal retail hires | 356,000 | 325,000 to 375,000 |
| Core goods inflation (PCE) | 1.6% | 2.5% |
| Holiday window | Nov 1 – Dec 31 | Nov 1 – Dec 31 |
Source: National Retail Federation (October 15, 2026 holiday forecast, built with Oxford Economics)
The NRF projects $1.013 trillion in holiday retail sales for 2026. That is 4.2% above the $972 billion recorded in 2025. Last year’s growth of 3.1% fell short of the NRF’s own outlook. The 4.2% pace would be the fastest since 2021, when sales rose 12.6%. The NRF counts sales from November 1 through December 31. It excludes auto dealers, gas stations and restaurants.
Prices drive part of the gain. The NRF expects core goods inflation of 2.5% in 2026, up from 1.6% in 2025. Nearly half of the 4.2% rise comes from real spending growth. Retailers plan to hire between 325,000 and 375,000 seasonal workers, close to the 356,000 hired last year. Hiring at that level signals steady store traffic, not a surge.
Average Holiday Budget per Household in US 2026 | Deloitte Spending by Income
Average Holiday Spend by Household Income (US$, each block = $100)
Under $50K ███████ 693
All shoppers █████████████████ 1,654
$200K and up ████████████████████████████████████ 3,607| Metric | 2026 Data |
|---|---|
| Average household holiday spend | $1,654 (up 4% from $1,595) |
| Retail goods spend | $988 (up 10%) |
| Holiday activities spend | $666 (down 4%) |
| Households earning $200,000 or more | $3,607 |
| Households earning under $50,000 | $693 |
| Average self-gift spend | $299 (up 13%) |
Source: Deloitte 2026 Holiday Retail Survey (4,000 US consumers, fielded August 26 to September 10, 2026)
The average household plans to spend $1,654, up 4% from $1,595 in 2025. The split matters more than the total. Retail goods rise 10% to $988, while holiday activities fall 4% to $666. Shoppers put money into things they can wrap and cut back on dining out and entertaining. Gen Z and millennials now account for 50% of holiday spending, the first time Deloitte has recorded that share.
Income sets the budget. Households earning $200,000 or more plan to spend $3,607, more than five times the $693 planned by households earning under $50,000. Self-gifting adds to the total. Shoppers who plan a self-gift expect to spend $299, up 13% from 2025. Men plan to spend $355 on themselves, and women plan $245.
Average Holiday Gift Spending per Person in US 2026 | PwC Gift and Travel Budgets
Average Gift Budget by Household Type (US$, each block = $50)
No children █████████████ 635
All consumers ██████████████ 708
With children ██████████████████ 875| Metric | 2026 Data |
|---|---|
| Average gift spend per consumer | $708 (down 2% from $721) |
| Households with children | $875 |
| Households without children | $635 |
| Millennial gift budget change | Down 10% |
| Gen Z gift budget change | Down 9% |
| Average travel spend | $419 (down 24% from $553) |
Source: PwC Holiday Outlook 2026 (4,093 US consumers, fielded June 15 to 26, 2026)
PwC finds that consumers expect to spend $708 on gifts, down only 2% from $721. Parents spend the most. Households with children plan $875, compared with $635 for households without children. Millennials cut gift budgets by 10% and Gen Z by 9%, yet millennials remain the biggest spenders overall because they sit in their peak earning years.
Travel takes the hit instead. Expected travel spend drops 24% to $419, and 40% of consumers plan to travel, down from 44% a year ago. Another 17% have not decided. PwC fielded its survey in June, when fuel prices were high and the University of Michigan index had fallen from 60.7 to 49.5 in one year. PwC notes that actual spending has landed above early forecasts in past years.
Most Popular Holiday Gift Categories in US 2026 | Wish Lists & Online Sales by Category
Online Holiday Sales by Category (US$ billions, each block = $2B)
Electronics ████████████████████████████████ 63.3
Apparel ██████████████████████████ 51.3
Furniture █████████████████ 33.4
Grocery █████████████ 26.1
Toys █████ 9.6
Cosmetics █████ 9.2| Category | 2026 Data |
|---|---|
| Gift cards (share who want to receive) | 47% |
| Clothing (share who want to receive) | 44% |
| Books and other media | 25% |
| Personal care or beauty | 24% |
| Electronics, online sales | $63.3 billion |
| Apparel, online sales | $51.3 billion |
| Furniture, online sales | $33.4 billion |
| Grocery, online sales | $26.1 billion |
Source: National Retail Federation and Prosper Insights & Analytics (October 1 to 7, 2026, 8,094 adults); Adobe Analytics (September 2026)
Gift cards top the wish list at 47%, followed by clothing at 44%, books and media at 25% and personal care at 24%. Deloitte adds a generational view. 76% of Gen Z shoppers plan to give clothing and accessories, and 33% of Gen Z plan a personalized gift, compared with 5% of baby boomers.
Adobe sizes the online side. Electronics lead at $63.3 billion, up 5.9%. Apparel follows at $51.3 billion. Grocery grows fastest among the large categories, up 10.3% to $26.1 billion, as shoppers use holiday deals to stock up on essentials. Toys rise 9.6% to $9.6 billion, cosmetics rise 9.5% to $9.2 billion and furniture rises 7.3% to $33.4 billion.
Where and When Americans Shop for the Holidays in US 2026 | Online, Stores & Timing
Planned Holiday Shopping Destinations (% of shoppers)
Online ███████████████████████████ 53
Grocery stores ██████████████████████ 43
Discount stores ██████████████████████ 43
Department █████████████████████ 42| Metric | 2026 Data |
|---|---|
| Plan to shop online | 53% |
| Plan to shop grocery stores | 43% |
| Plan to shop discount stores | 43% |
| Plan to shop department stores | 42% |
| Start shopping before November | 43% |
| Do most shopping Thanksgiving weekend | 64% |
| Expect to buy gifts in store | 60% |
| Share of retail budgets spent online | 55% |
Source: National Retail Federation and Prosper Insights & Analytics (October 2026); PwC Holiday Outlook 2026; Deloitte 2026 Holiday Retail Survey
Online remains the top destination at 53%. Grocery and discount stores tie at 43%, and department stores reach 42%. Deloitte finds shoppers will place 55% of retail budgets online, yet 60% of PwC respondents expect to buy gifts in store. Food and beverage shows the split: 81% of shoppers prefer to buy it in person.
Timing follows price. 43% of shoppers start before November, and 50% of early starters do it to spread out their budgets. Still, 64% wait for Thanksgiving weekend to do most of their buying. 46% of those who start in November say they wait for the best prices. Deloitte reports that 28% of budgets will be spent by the end of October, the highest share in six years.
Holiday Online Shopping Spending in US 2026 | Black Friday, Cyber Monday & Cyber Week
Forecast US Online Sales by Peak Day (US$ billions, each block = $0.5B)
Thanksgiving ██████████████ 6.9
Black Friday ██████████████████████████ 12.9
Cyber Monday ██████████████████████████████ 15.1| Period | 2026 Forecast | Change vs 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Online sales, Nov 1 – Dec 31 | $275.1 billion | +6.7% |
| Online sales, October | $95.8 billion | +8% |
| Cyber Week (Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday) | $47.5 billion | +7.4% |
| Cyber Monday (Nov 30) | $15.1 billion | +6.2% |
| Black Friday (Nov 27) | $12.9 billion | +9.2% |
| Thanksgiving Day (Nov 26) | $6.9 billion | Not reported |
| Buy now, pay later spend | $21.3 billion | +6.6% |
Source: Adobe Analytics (September 28, 2026 holiday forecast)
Adobe expects Americans to spend $275.1 billion online during November and December, up 6.7% from $257.8 billion. Cyber Week should deliver $47.5 billion, or 17.3% of the season. Cyber Monday on November 30 would become the first single day above $15 billion, at $15.1 billion. Black Friday grows faster at 9.2% to $12.9 billion because retailers moved deep discounts earlier.
Pre-season buying matters more each year. Adobe forecasts $95.8 billion in October, including $9.9 billion on the October 6 to 7 Prime Day event. Buy now, pay later adds $21.3 billion over the season, with $1.09 billion on Cyber Monday and $807 million on Black Friday. Mobile devices should drive 57.4% of online sales. Adobe expects discounts of up to 30% during Cyber Week.
How Inflation and Consumer Confidence Shape Holiday Spending in US 2026
12-Month Price Change, September 2026 (%, each block = 1 point)
Gasoline ██████████████████████████████████ 34.2
Energy ████████████████████ 20.4
All items ████ 3.7
Core ███ 2.6
Food ███ 2.5| Indicator | 2026 Reading |
|---|---|
| CPI all items, 12 months to September | 3.7% |
| CPI less food and energy | 2.6% |
| Gasoline index, 12 months | 34.2% |
| Energy index, 12 months | 20.4% |
| Food index, 12 months | 2.5% |
| Michigan sentiment, October preliminary | 46.3 |
| Michigan sentiment record low (May 2026) | 44.8 |
| Personal saving rate, June 2026 | 2.7% (from 4.5% in January) |
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (September 2026 CPI, released October 14, 2026); University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers; U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (via PwC)
Prices rose 3.7% over the year to September, up from 3.4% in August. Gasoline did most of the damage. The gasoline index jumped 9.1% in September alone and sits 34.2% above last year. Core prices rose 2.6%, and food rose 2.5%. Fuel costs reach every shopper who drives to a store or a relative’s home, and they leave less cash for gifts.
Confidence stays weak. The Michigan index read 46.3 in early October, and the record low of 44.8 arrived in May. The personal saving rate fell from 4.5% in January to 2.7% in June, so households have a thinner cushion. Spending grows anyway, and it grows unevenly.
Holiday Shopping Trends in US 2026 | Budget Habits, AI Tools & Experience Gifts
Shoppers Changing Habits Because of the Economy (% of affected shoppers)
Shop sales more often ██████████████████████ 43
Compare prices online ███████████████ 31
Use coupons more ██████████████ 29| Trend | 2026 Data |
|---|---|
| Shoppers whose plans the economy affects | 56% |
| Holiday value seekers | 38% |
| Extra spend by value seekers | 12% |
| Plan to gift an experience | 50% |
| Prefer one meaningful gift | 47% |
| Consumers using AI for holiday shopping | 29% (up from 22%) |
| Spend of shoppers using search, social and GenAI | $2,893 (vs $1,175 for none) |
| Prioritize screen-free gifts | 64% (Gen Z: 78%) |
Source: National Retail Federation; Deloitte 2026 Holiday Retail Survey; PwC Holiday Outlook 2026
Shoppers adapt rather than stop. Among the 56% affected by the economy, 43% will shop sales more often, 31% will compare prices online and 29% will use coupons more. Deloitte calls 38% of shoppers value seekers. They use five or more money-saving tactics, yet they plan to spend 12% more than others. Savings behavior and spending can rise together.
Gift choices shift too. 50% of shoppers plan to give an experience, up from 47% in 2025 and 39% in 2024, and 79% of them pair it with a physical item. 47% prefer one meaningful, higher-cost gift to several small ones. AI use climbs to 29% from 22%, mostly for research and price checks. Shoppers who use search, social media and GenAI plan to spend $2,893, against $1,175 for those who use none.
Holiday Shopping Spending in US 2026 FAQs
How much will Americans spend on holiday shopping in 2026?
The NRF forecasts $1.013 trillion in holiday retail sales for November 1 to December 31, 2026. That is 4.2% above the $972 billion spent in 2025. Adobe separately forecasts $275.1 billion in online sales over the same period.
What is the average holiday budget per household in 2026?
Deloitte reports an average household holiday budget of $1,654 in 2026, up 4% from $1,595. Retail goods account for $988 of that total. Holiday activities account for $666. Households earning $200,000 or more plan $3,607.
How much do Americans spend on holiday gifts per person in 2026?
PwC finds that the average consumer expects to spend $708 on gifts in 2026, down 2% from $721. Households with children plan $875. Households without children plan $635.
Will holiday sales top $1 trillion in 2026?
The NRF expects holiday sales to reach $1.013 trillion, which would be the first season above $1 trillion. The NRF’s 2025 forecast also pointed to a trillion-dollar season, but actual sales landed at $972 billion. Treat the 2026 figure as a forecast.
How much will Cyber Monday 2026 online spending reach?
Adobe forecasts $15.1 billion in US online sales on Cyber Monday, November 30, 2026, up 6.2%. Black Friday should reach $12.9 billion, up 9.2%. Cyber Week, from Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday, should total $47.5 billion.
When do most Americans start holiday shopping in 2026?
The NRF finds that 43% of holiday shoppers start before November. Still, 64% plan to do most of their shopping over Thanksgiving weekend, which runs November 26 to November 30 in 2026. Early starters cite budget spreading and strong promotions.
Is inflation raising holiday prices in 2026?
Yes. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported 3.7% annual inflation in September 2026, with gasoline up 34.2%. The NRF expects core goods inflation of 2.5% this year, up from 1.6% in 2025.
What gifts do Americans want most in 2026?
Gift cards lead at 47%, followed by clothing at 44%, books and other media at 25%, and personal care or beauty items at 24%. Online, electronics bring in the most holiday sales at $63.3 billion.
Disclaimer: The data research report we present here is based on information found from various sources. We are not liable for any financial loss, errors, or damages of any kind that may result from the use of the information herein. We acknowledge that though we try to report accurately, we cannot verify the absolute facts of everything that has been represented.
