Latino voters in the 2026 US midterm elections moved toward Democrats: the NBC News Exit Poll found 60% backed Democratic House candidates and 35% backed Republicans, compared with 51% for Kamala Harris and 46% for Donald Trump in 2024. Pew’s pre-election survey found Democrats ahead 51% to 24% among Hispanic registered voters, and 65% of Hispanic Trump 2024 voters still planned to vote Republican.
Latino Voters in US Midterm Elections 2026 – Introduction
Latino voters are the second-largest group of eligible voters in the United States, and the 2026 midterms put their shifting loyalties in focus. Pew Research Center counts 39.0 million Hispanic eligible voters this year, about 16% of the electorate. Donald Trump won nearly half of their votes in 2024, the best showing for a Republican presidential candidate in modern polling. Early reads on November 3, 2026 point to a swing back toward Democrats.
This report compares exit polls, the AP Voter Poll and Pew’s pre-election survey. Exit polls are estimates, not vote results, and sources measure Latino voters in different ways. The report covers the vote by party, Trump’s 2024 Latino voters, state patterns, turnout history and age gaps. It also notes where analysts disagree about what the shift means.
Interesting Facts About Latino Voters in the 2026 Midterms
| Fact | 2026 Data |
|---|---|
| Latino House vote, Democratic candidates (exit poll) | 60% |
| Latino House vote, Republican candidates (exit poll) | 35% |
| Pew pre-election lead among Hispanic registered voters | 51% to 24% |
| Hispanic eligible voters | 39.0 million |
| Share of all eligible voters | 16% |
| Latino voters naming the economy as top issue | 45% |
| Latino voters voting in their first midterm | 18% |
| Trump job approval among Latino registered voters | 24% |
Source: NBC News Exit Poll, November 3-4, 2026; Pew Research Center, October 16 and September 10, 2026.
The exit poll shows a sizable swing. Democratic House candidates won 60% of the Latino vote, up from 51% for Harris in 2024. Republican House candidates won 35%, down from 46% for Trump. Pew’s survey, taken September 28 to October 4, found Democrats ahead 51% to 24%, with 18% unsure and 7% backing another candidate.
The economy led the issue list at 45%, ahead of the state of democracy at 25% and immigration at 15%. About 18% of Latino voters said it was their first midterm, and nearly 3 in 4 of them backed Democrats. Trump’s job approval among Latino registered voters is 24%, down from 38% in February 2025, according to Pew.
Latino Vote by Party in the 2026 Midterms
| Source | Democratic | Republican |
|---|---|---|
| NBC News Exit Poll (November 3) | 60% | 35% |
| AP Voter Poll | About 60% | About one third |
| Pew, registered voters (September 28 to October 4) | 51% | 24% |
| Reuters/Ipsos, registered voters | 52% | 26% |
| NBC News/Hart-POS generic ballot (September 21-28) | 59% | 35% |
Source: NBC News Exit Poll; AP Voter Poll; Pew Research Center; Reuters/Ipsos; Hart Research and Public Opinion Strategies.
The exit poll and the AP Voter Poll agree that about 6 in 10 Latino voters backed Democrats in House races. Pre-election surveys show lower numbers because many voters were undecided. Pew found 18% unsure. The NBC News/Hart-POS poll, which pushes undecided voters, found a 24-point Democratic lead at 59% to 35%.
Party identification moved the same way. The share of Latino voters calling themselves Democrats rose to 43% from 39% in 2024, while Republicans slipped to 27% from 29%. Independents fell to 30% from 32%. The Democratic advantage is 16 points, up from 10 in 2024, but it remains far below the 33 points of 2018. Democrats’ 60% House share also remains below the 69% of 2018.
Trump 2024 Latino Voters and Their 2026 Preferences
| Metric | 2026 Data |
|---|---|
| Trump 2024 Hispanic voters who back a Republican for House | 65% |
| Trump 2024 Hispanic voters who back a Democrat | 11% |
| Trump 2024 Hispanic voters undecided | 10% |
| Trump job approval, his 2024 Hispanic voters | 57% (down from 93%) |
| Latino voters calling their vote one against Trump | 55% |
| Latino voters saying Trump policies harm Hispanics | 70% |
| Hispanic Harris 2024 voters backing a Democrat | 84% |
| Hispanic 2024 nonvoters backing a Democrat | 47% |
Source: Pew Research Center, How Latino Voters Are Experiencing the 2026 Midterm Elections, October 16, 2026 (survey of 774 Hispanic registered voters).
Most of Trump’s Latino supporters are staying with Republicans. Pew found 65% of Hispanic Trump 2024 voters plan to vote Republican for the House, and 11% plan to vote Democratic. Another 14% back another candidate and 10% are unsure. His approval among them fell from 93% at the start of his second term to 57%, but a majority still approve. Only 34% now rate the economy as excellent or good, down from 57% at the start of the year.
The broader picture is less favorable to him. Overall, 55% of Latino voters call their congressional vote one against Trump, and 70% say his policies harm Hispanics. Among Republican candidate supporters, 46% say their vote supports Trump and 46% say he is not much of a factor. Among 2024 nonvoters, 47% favor Democrats and 31% are unsure. Trump’s 2024 Latino share varies by source, from about 40% in AP VoteCast to 48% in Reuters and 46% in the NBC exit poll comparison.
Hispanic Voting Patterns by State in 2026
| State | Latino Share of Eligible Voters | 2026 Pattern |
|---|---|---|
| California | 33% | Competitive House districts with large Latino populations |
| Texas | 32% | 6.3 million eligible Latino voters; 6 in 10 back Talarico in a CBS poll |
| Arizona | 25% | Competitive House seats |
| Florida | 23% | Republican strength among Cuban Americans; Puerto Rican voters in play |
| Texas rural Latino voters | None | Favored Abbott 60% to 36% (Hobby School) |
| Texas urban Latino voters | None | Favored Hinojosa 58% to 41% (Hobby School) |
Source: UCLA Latino Policy and Politics Institute; Pew Research Center; CBS News poll, October 2026; University of Houston Hobby School for Public Affairs.
Texas is the center of the story. Latinos are 31.7% of the state’s eligible electorate, about 6.3 million people. A CBS News poll found 6 in 10 Hispanic voters planned to back Democrat James Talarico over Republican Ken Paxton for Senate. A Hobby School survey found a split by geography. Rural Latino voters favored Governor Greg Abbott 60% to 36%, and urban Latino voters favored Democrat Gina Hinojosa 58% to 41%. Democratic strategist Colin Strother-style projections of a swing between 10 and 25 points in South Texas rest on that urban and border base.
Other states show the same range. California, Arizona and Florida hold dozens of competitive House seats. Latinos make up about 20% of registered voters in two dozen competitive House races across Arizona, California, Colorado, Florida, Pennsylvania and Texas, according to The New York Times. Florida remains the hardest state for Democrats. In 2022, it was the only state where a majority of Latino voters backed Republican House candidates. Strategists note that many Texas Latino voters are reacting to the party in power, not embracing Democrats.
Latino Voter Participation and Historical Trends
| Measure | Figure |
|---|---|
| Hispanic eligible voters, 2026 | 39.0 million (up 16% since 2022) |
| Increase since 2022 | 5.2 million |
| Share of eligible voters, 2026 | 16% |
| Share of eligible voters, 2006 | 9% |
| Latino midterm turnout, 2014 (record low) | 27.0% |
| Latino vote for Democrats, 2018 (Pew) | 72% |
| Latino vote for Democrats, 2022 (Pew) | 60% |
| Early vote nationally vs 2022 | Up 44% |
Source: Pew Research Center, U.S. electorate analysis (September 10, 2026) and midterm studies (2018, 2023); election coverage.
Hispanic eligible voters grew from 29 million in 2018 to 39.0 million in 2026. Pew says 5.2 million were added since 2022, more than half of the total growth in eligible voters. The Hispanic share rose from 9% in 2006 to 16%. Turnout lags population growth. In 2014, midterm turnout among Latino eligible voters fell to a record low of 27.0%.
Party support has swung with turnout. Pew’s validated-voter data show Democrats won 72% in 2018 and 60% in 2022, when 37% of 2018 Latino voters did not vote again. Pew warns that differences in who turns out have driven shifts as much as changes of mind. In 2026, Democratic Latino supporters are more engaged. 53% say they are extremely motivated, up from 41% in 2022, and nationwide early voting is up 44% from 2022.
Younger vs Older Hispanic Voters in 2026
| Measure | Figure |
|---|---|
| Hispanic eligible voters ages 18 to 29 | 30% |
| All eligible voters ages 18 to 29 | 20% |
| Hispanics who turned 18 since 2022 | 4 million+ |
| Share of Hispanic eligible voter growth from new adults | About 80% |
| 2014 turnout, Latinos ages 18 to 35 | 16.0% |
| 2014 turnout, Latinos ages 36 and older | 36.2% |
| Latino men voting Democratic (2024 to 2026) | 44% to 55% |
| Latinas voting Democratic (2024 to 2026) | 58% to 65% |
Source: Pew Research Center (September 10, 2026 and 2018 analyses); NBC News Exit Poll, November 2026.
Hispanic voters are young. 30% of eligible Hispanic voters are ages 18 to 29, compared with 17% for white and 22% for Black eligible voters. More than 4 million Hispanics turned 18 between 2022 and 2026, which accounts for about 80% of the group’s growth. Young Latinos turn out less. In 2014, only 16.0% of those 18 to 35 voted, against 36.2% of those 36 and older.
Gender and first-time voting also matter. The exit poll shows 55% of Latino men voting Democratic, up from 44% in 2024, and 65% of Latinas, up from 58%. Younger voters moved the same way: AP’s poll found young voters, who had swung toward Trump in 2024, swung away from Republicans in 2026. In 2022, Democratic support among Latinos over 60 fell from 74% to 61%, which shows older voters can shift too.
Latino Voters in US Midterm Elections 2026 – Frequently Asked Questions
How Did Latino Voters Vote in the 2026 Midterms?
The NBC News Exit Poll found 60% of Latino voters backed Democratic House candidates and 35% backed Republicans. AP’s poll found about 6 in 10 voting Democratic and about one third voting Republican.
What Did Pew Find About Latino Voters Before the 2026 Midterms?
Pew’s survey of 774 Hispanic registered voters found Democrats ahead 51% to 24% in House races. About 18% were unsure and 7% backed another candidate.
How Many Latino Voters Supported Trump in 2024?
Estimates vary by source. The NBC exit poll comparison puts Trump at 46%, Reuters at 48% and AP VoteCast near 4 in 10. Pew says he won nearly half of Latino votes.
Are Latino Voters Still Supporting Trump in 2026?
Many are. Pew found 65% of Hispanic Trump 2024 voters plan to back a Republican for the House, and 57% approve of his job performance. Approval among all Latino registered voters is 24%.
How Many Latino Voters Are Eligible to Vote in 2026?
Pew counts 39.0 million Hispanic eligible voters, up 5.2 million since 2022. They make up 16% of all eligible voters.
What Issues Matter Most to Latino Voters in 2026?
The economy ranked first at 45% in the exit poll, followed by the state of democracy at 25% and immigration at 15%. Unidos found 53% citing cost of living and inflation as the top concern.
Which States Have the Most Latino Voters in 2026?
Latinos make up about 33% of eligible voters in California and 32% in Texas. The shares are 25% in Arizona and 23% in Florida.
Did Latino Men and Women Vote Differently in 2026?
Yes. The exit poll shows 55% of Latino men and 65% of Latinas voting Democratic. In 2024, the figures were 44% and 58%.
How Many Latino Voters Were New to Midterms in 2026?
About 18% of Latino voters said it was their first midterm election. Nearly 3 in 4 of them backed Democratic House candidates.
Is the Latino Shift Toward Democrats Permanent?
Analysts disagree. Some call it a rebuke of the party in power, and Pew says turnout differences drive many swings. Republican consultant Mike Madrid has called a 38% to 40% Republican share a possible new baseline.
Disclaimer: The data research report we present here is based on information found from various sources. We are not liable for any financial loss, errors, or damages of any kind that may result from the use of the information herein. We acknowledge that though we try to report accurately, we cannot verify the absolute facts of everything that has been represented.
