US Presidential Referendum 2026 show that 63% of voters disapproved of President Trump’s job performance in the national exit poll, and 44% said their House vote was meant to oppose him, against 16% who said it was meant to support him. Democrats won the House and Senate, and about 60% of voters called Trump a factor in their vote.
US Presidential Referendum Statistics 2026 – Introduction
US Presidential Referendum Statistics for 2026 describe a midterm election that voters treated as a verdict on the president. About 6 in 10 voters said Trump was a factor in their congressional vote, and the exit poll put his disapproval at 63%. Pre-election surveys sat near the same line. The NBC News poll found 60% disapproval, and the Silver Bulletin average stood near 59% on November 4, 2026. That 60 percent disapproval metric became the anchor of the election.
The vote followed the mood. Democrats won control of both chambers, and NBC News projected 258 House seats, the party’s best total since 1993. Voters who said they cast a ballot to oppose Trump backed Democrats at 97%. This report tracks disapproval across polls, separates opposition votes from support votes, compares 2026 with 2018, and covers the issues, the results, and party favorability. Two Senate races, Mississippi and Alaska, were still uncalled on November 5, 2026.
US Presidential Referendum Statistics 2026 – Interesting Facts
TRUMP JOB DISAPPROVAL, 2026 MEASURES (each █ = 2%)
Pew Research, October | ██████████████████████████████████ 68%
Exit poll, weighted | ████████████████████████████████ 63%
NBC poll, pre-election | ██████████████████████████████ 60%
Silver Bulletin average | █████████████████████████████ about 59%
| Fact | 2026 Data |
|---|---|
| Election Day | November 3, 2026 |
| Trump disapproval, national exit poll | 63% |
| Voters who strongly disapprove | 54% |
| Voters calling Trump a factor in House vote | About 6 in 10 |
| House voters voting to oppose Trump | 44% |
| House voters voting to support Trump | 16% |
| Opposition voters choosing Democrats | 97% |
| Senate count, Democrats to Republicans | 54 to 44, two races uncalled |
| House seats projected for Democrats | 258 |
| Projected Democratic House popular vote margin | 14 points |
Source: NBC News Exit Poll by SSRS; ABC News Voter Polls; NBC News poll; Silver Bulletin; Pew Research Center, November 2026.
The table shows how closely the exit poll, pre-election polls and results line up. US Presidential Referendum Statistics begin with disapproval. The exit poll recorded 63%, and the Pew Research Center measured 68% among adults in October. NBC’s registered-voter poll recorded 60%, and the Silver Bulletin average sat near 59%. Voters, adults and averages differ, so the spread is expected. Every measure sits above 55%. Readers comparing sources should match the population first, because adults, registered voters and actual voters answer the same question differently. The exit poll counts people who voted, so it is the cleanest read of the electorate.
The vote rows show what voters did with that opinion. Of House voters, 44% said they voted to oppose Trump and 16% said they voted to support him. That is a 28-point opposition edge. Democrats took 54 Senate seats to 44 for Republicans in the AP count, with Mississippi and Alaska uncalled. Economic concern ran through the whole result, and 89% of voters said the cost of living was a crucial or major factor. The projected House popular vote margin of 14 points is the widest in a midterm since 1974.
US Presidential Referendum Statistics 2026: Trump Disapproval Metric Across Exit Polls and Surveys
TRUMP APPROVAL, 2026 MEASURES (each █ = 2%)
Exit poll, weighted | ██████████████████ 37%
Exit poll, preliminary | ███████████████████ 38%
Silver Bulletin average | ███████████████████ 38.3%
NBC poll, pre-election | ████████████████████ 40%
Pew Research, October | ███████████████ 30%
| Measure | Approve | Disapprove |
|---|---|---|
| NBC News Exit Poll, weighted | 37% | 63% |
| NBC News Exit Poll, preliminary | 38% | 62% |
| NBC News poll, released November 1 | 40% | 60% |
| Silver Bulletin average, November 4 | 38.3% | About 59% |
| Pew Research Center, September 28 to October 4 | 30% | 68% |
Source: NBC News Exit Poll by SSRS; NBC News poll; Silver Bulletin; Pew Research Center, 2026.
Every source points the same direction. The NBC exit poll started at 38% approve and 62% disapprove on election night, then settled at 37% and 63% after reweighting. The NBC poll released on November 1 showed 40% approve and 60% disapprove, a record high for disapproval across Trump’s two terms in that poll. The numbers moved by only 3 points between pre-election and exit measures. That stability matters for analysts. It suggests the referendum framing formed before Election Day and did not depend on late campaign events. Voters entered the booth with a settled, negative view of the president.
Pew’s lower approval number comes from a different group and date. It surveyed 5,062 adults, including 3,917 registered voters, and found 30% approval and 68% disapproval, the lowest of Trump’s second term. The Silver Bulletin average showed an all-time low of 36.3% approval before a small rebound to 38.3%. Strong approval was only 21%, while strong disapproval reached nearly 49%. The gap of 28 points between the two intensity measures predicted the exit poll, where strong disapproval reached 54%. Exit-poll intensity ran above the final average, though the two measures use different populations.
Opposition Voting in US Midterm Elections 2026: Vote Against Trump vs Vote for Trump
REASON FOR HOUSE VOTE, 2026 (each █ = 2%)
Oppose Trump | ██████████████████████ 44%
Support Trump | ████████ 16%
| Measure | 2026 Data |
|---|---|
| Voters saying their House vote was to oppose Trump | 44% |
| Voters saying their House vote was to support Trump | 16% |
| Opposition voters who chose Democrats | 97% |
| Voters calling Trump a factor in House vote | About 6 in 10 |
| Registered voters seeing their vote as against Trump, Pew | 44% |
| Voters sending a message about Trump, CNN poll | Roughly 6 in 10, 2-to-1 opposition |
Source: ABC News Voter Polls; NBC News Exit Poll; Pew Research Center; CNN poll, 2026.
US Presidential Referendum Statistics show a lopsided referendum. Among House voters, 44% said they voted to express opposition to Trump, and only 16% said they voted to express support. Opposition voters chose Democrats 97% of the time. About 6 in 10 voters said Trump was a factor in their House vote. Pew’s pre-election survey found the same 44% of registered voters saw their vote as against Trump, so the exit poll confirmed the pre-election signal. Pre-election surveys and exit polls rarely match this closely, which makes the opposition share one of the most reliable metrics in this report.
CNN’s poll in October found roughly 6 in 10 voters planned to send a message about Trump, and by a 2-to-1 margin the message was opposition. The exit result sits close to that forecast. A 28-point gap between opposition and support voters leaves Republicans with a small referendum base. It also explains the scale of Democratic gains, since most of the opposition vote went to one party. The 16% support group also shows the limits of the referendum for Republicans. Few voters framed their ballot as a vote for the president, even in the party that nominated him.
Strong Disapproval and Vote Choice in 2026 Midterm Elections: How Intensity Shaped Results
STRONG DISAPPROVAL IN HOUSE EXIT POLLS (each █ = 2%)
Trump 2026 strongly disapprove | ███████████████████████████ 54%
Bush 2008 strongly disapprove | █████████████████████████ 51%
Trump 2026 strongly approve | ██████████ about 20%
| Measure | 2026 Data |
|---|---|
| Voters strongly disapproving of Trump | 54% |
| Voters strongly disapproving of Bush, 2008 | 51% |
| Democratic margin among strong disapprovers | 90 points |
| Voters strongly approving of Trump | About 2 in 10 |
| Republican margin among strong approvers | 96 points |
| Voters disapproving of Trump, House race voters | About 6 in 10 |
Source: ABC News Voter Polls, November 2026.
Intensity mattered as much as the headline number. About 54% of House voters strongly disapproved of Trump. That tops the 51% who strongly disapproved of George W. Bush in the 2008 House exit polls, the year Barack Obama won the presidency. Strong disapprovers backed Democrats by 90 points, which means almost none of them split their ballots.
The other side was loyal but small. Only about 2 in 10 voters strongly approved of Trump, and they backed Republicans by 96 points. A group that loyal cannot win an election at that size. Trump’s base held, but the strongly disapproving group was nearly 3 times larger than the strongly approving one. That ratio drove the House result more than any shift among moderate voters. Moderates mattered, and AP found Democrats gained among them, but intensity on the disapproving side supplied the base of the Democratic margin.
Trump Midterm Approval Comparison 2026 vs 2018: Midterm Referendum Records
TRUMP APPROVAL AMONG MIDTERM VOTERS (each █ = 2%)
2018 midterm, NBC | ███████████████████████ 45%
2026 midterm, NBC | ██████████████████ 37%
| Midterm | Approve | Disapprove | Democratic House Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2018, NBC exit poll | 45% | Not stated here | Democrats flipped nearly 40 seats |
| 2018, CBS exit poll | 44% | 54% | Democrats won 53.1% of House votes |
| 2026, NBC exit poll | 37% | 63% | 258 seats projected |
Source: NBC News Exit Polls, 2018 and 2026; CBS News exit poll, 2018; NBC News election data.
Trump’s approval among midterm voters fell from 45% in 2018 to 37% in 2026 in the NBC exit poll, an 8-point drop. In 2018, CBS found 44% approval and 54% disapproval, and 90% of disapprovers voted for Democratic House candidates. The 2026 disapproval figure of 63% is 9 points above that 2018 level.
The results scaled with the opinion. In 2018, Democrats won 53.1% of House votes and flipped nearly 40 seats. In 2026, NBC projected 258 House seats for Democrats, the most since 1993. CNN found Trump’s October approval stood 7 points below where it was just before the 2018 midterms. Lower approval produced a larger Democratic result in the second midterm. The comparison is imperfect, since the two exit polls used different methods and the 2018 House map differs from 2026. It still shows that the referendum deepened between the two elections.
Issues Behind the US Midterm Referendum 2026: Cost of Living, Corruption and Democracy
VOTERS CALLING FACTOR CRUCIAL OR MAJOR, 2026 (each █ = 4%)
Government corruption | ███████████████████████ 91%
Cost of living | ██████████████████████ 89%
Trump hurt economy | ████████████████ 66%
Trump self-interest | ███████████████ 62%
| Measure | 2026 Data |
|---|---|
| Government corruption crucial or major factor | 91% |
| Cost of living crucial or major factor | 89% |
| Trump’s policies worsened economic conditions | 66% |
| Trump prioritizes personal interests | 62% |
| Economy as top issue, NBC exit poll | 39% |
| State of democracy as top issue, NBC exit poll | 32% |
Source: Exit poll results reported by NBC News and Yahoo News, November 2026.
Voters named cost of living and corruption as the issues driving their congressional vote. 89% called the cost of living a crucial or major factor, and 91% said the same about government corruption. The NBC exit poll listed the economy as the top issue at 39%, ahead of democracy at 32%. Economic concerns helped Trump in 2024, and the same concerns hurt his party in 2026.
Voters also judged Trump directly. 66% said his policies had worsened economic conditions, and 62% said he put his own interests ahead of the country’s. Those two views connect the referendum to daily life. A voter who blames the president for prices has a reason to vote against his party, and the 44% who said they voted to oppose Trump show that reasoning at scale. Corruption concern at 91% adds a second driver that is not purely economic, and it overlaps with the 62% who said Trump puts his own interests first.
US Midterm Election Results 2026: House, Senate and Popular Vote Margin Records
HOUSE POPULAR VOTE MARGIN, POINTS (each █ = 1 point)
Democrats, 2026 projected | ██████████████ 14
Republicans, 1994 and 2010 | ███████ 6.8
| Result Measure | 2026 Data |
|---|---|
| Senate seats flipped by Democrats | 7 (Iowa, Kansas, Ohio, Maine, North Carolina, South Carolina, Texas) |
| Senate count, Democrats to Republicans | 54 to 44 |
| House seats projected for Democrats | 258 |
| House seats Democrats held before the election | 214 |
| Projected Democratic House popular vote margin | 14 points |
| Republican margin in 1994 and 2010 | 6.8 points |
| Average president’s party House loss since World War II | 26 seats |
Source: NBC News projections; AP vote count; CBS News; reported analysis of exit poll and vote data, November 2026.
The result matches the referendum. Democrats flipped 7 Senate seats and held 54 to 44 in the AP count, with Mississippi and Alaska still uncalled. In the House, Democrats entered with 214 seats and NBC projected 258. That gain of 44 seats is far above the 26-seat average loss for a president’s party in postwar midterms. Time reported it as only the fifth time since World War II that one party flipped both chambers in a midterm.
The popular vote scale also stands out. The projected Democratic margin of 14 points compares with 6.8 points for Republicans in 1994 and 2010. The last time either party won a midterm House popular vote by that much was 1974. The final numbers can still change as counting finishes, so treat the 14-point figure as a projection. Seat totals also depend on uncalled races, and the Senate count of 54 to 44 leaves room for movement once Mississippi and Alaska finish counting. Readers should check final certified results closely before citing exact totals.
Party Favorability and Trump Base Support in 2026: Republican Image and Erosion
PARTY VIEWED UNFAVORABLY, 2026 EXIT POLL (each █ = 2%)
Republican Party, 2026 | ██████████████████████████████ 59%
Republican Party, 2022 | ██████████████████████████ 52%
Democratic Party, 2026 | ███████████████████████████ 54%
| Measure | 2026 Data |
|---|---|
| Republican Party unfavorable | 59%, up from 52% in 2022 |
| Democratic Party unfavorable | 54% |
| Democratic favorability, ABC | 47% |
| Republican favorability, ABC | 40% |
| Voters unfavorable toward both parties | 15% |
| Democratic lead among those voters | 28 points |
| Approval among MAGA Republicans | 93% |
| Approval among non-MAGA Republicans | 54% |
| Approval among Trump 2024 voters, Pew | 67%, down from 95% |
Source: NBC News Exit Poll; ABC News Voter Polls; NBC News poll; Pew Research Center, 2026.
The referendum hurt the Republican brand more than the Democratic one. 59% of voters viewed the Republican Party unfavorably, up from 52% in 2022, while 54% viewed Democrats unfavorably. Democrats held a favorability edge of 47% to 40% in ABC’s poll. Voters who disliked both parties, 15% of the electorate, broke for Democrats by 28 points.
Trump’s own coalition eroded at the edges. MAGA Republicans approved of him at 93%, but non-MAGA Republicans approved at only 54%. Pew found 67% of validated 2024 Trump voters approved of his work, down from 95% at the start of his term. CNN found Republican approval at 74%, down from 88% in February 2025. Those slips explain how a loyal base still lost the referendum. The party image numbers also carry a warning for Democrats, since 54% viewed their party unfavorably. The referendum rewarded opposition to Trump more than affection for Democrats.
US Presidential Referendum Statistics 2026 – Frequently Asked Questions
What Percentage of Voters Disapproved of Trump in the 2026 Midterm Elections?
The NBC News Exit Poll found 63% of voters disapproved of Trump’s job performance, with 37% approving. Preliminary results on election night showed 62% disapproval. The NBC poll before the election found 60% disapproval.
Was the 2026 Midterm Election a Referendum on Trump?
Voters treated it that way. About 6 in 10 called Trump a factor in their House vote, and 44% said they voted to oppose him against 16% who voted to support him. Opposition voters chose Democrats 97% of the time.
How Many Voters Strongly Disapproved of Trump in 2026?
About 54% of House voters strongly disapproved of Trump, according to ABC News Voter Polls. That exceeds the 51% who strongly disapproved of Bush in 2008. Strong disapprovers backed Democrats by 90 points.
How Does Trump’s 2026 Midterm Approval Compare With 2018?
Trump’s approval among midterm voters was 37% in 2026 and 45% in 2018 in NBC exit polling, an 8-point drop. Disapproval reached 63% in 2026, compared with 54% in the 2018 CBS exit poll.
What Issues Drove the 2026 Midterm Referendum Vote?
Cost of living and corruption led. 89% of voters called the cost of living a crucial or major factor, and 91% said the same about government corruption. The economy was the top issue at 39%, ahead of democracy at 32%.
How Many Seats Did Democrats Win in the 2026 Midterm Elections?
NBC News projected 258 House seats for Democrats. In the Senate, Democrats flipped 7 seats and held 54 to 44 in the AP count, with Mississippi and Alaska uncalled on November 5, 2026.
Did Republican Voters Turn Against Trump in 2026?
Support slipped but did not collapse. MAGA Republicans approved at 93%, while non-MAGA Republicans approved at 54%. Pew found 67% of 2024 Trump voters approved, down from 95% at the start of his term.
Disclaimer: The data research report we present here is based on information found from various sources. We are not liable for any financial loss, errors, or damages of any kind that may result from the use of the information herein. We acknowledge that though we try to report accurately, we cannot verify the absolute facts of everything that has been represented.
