UK Population by Region in 2026
The United Kingdom’s population has crossed a major threshold in 2026, with the most recent Office for National Statistics (ONS) provisional estimate placing the UK population at 69.5 million people at mid-2025 — the most current figure officially released before mid-2026 data becomes available. The annual mid-2024 UK population estimate, published by the ONS on 26 September 2025, confirmed 69,281,400 people — an increase of 755,300 (1.1%) from mid-2023, representing the second-largest annual numerical increase in over 75 years. Across the four constituent nations, growth was fastest in England (+1.2%), followed by Scotland (+0.7%), Wales (+0.6%), and Northern Ireland (+0.4%). The single most important driver of this growth, in every part of the UK, was net international migration — which contributed the majority of population increase in all four countries, even as the number of arrivals declined compared to the record levels of 2022 and 2023. Net international migration in the year to mid-2024 was 738,700 — lower than the preceding year but still historically elevated, and representing the second consecutive year of decline from the 2023 peak. By mid-2025, the provisional ONS estimate placed the total at 69,487,000, with net migration in the year to June 2025 having fallen sharply to 204,000 — a dramatic reduction from peak levels — while births (653,000) and deaths (651,000) nearly balanced each other for the first time in years.
What these headline figures describe is a country in the midst of a profound demographic reconfiguration. The UK’s total fertility rate stands at approximately 1.49 children per woman — the lowest on record and well below the 2.1 replacement level required for population stability without migration. Births in the UK in 2024 were approximately 660,000 — effectively a record low, down from over one million per year during the 1960s baby boom. From mid-2026 onwards, deaths are projected to outnumber births in the UK every year going forward, with the ONS’s 2024-based national population projections (published April 2026) confirming that all future population growth will be driven entirely by net migration. The UK’s median age is approximately 40.7 years and rising steadily, with the share of the population aged 65 and over increasing to 18.8% while those aged under 15 account for just 17.2%. England remains the dominant nation by population, accounting for 84% of all UK residents, while Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland each carry distinct demographic profiles shaped by different birth rates, migration patterns, and age structures. This article presents the complete, verified UK population by region statistics for 2026, drawing on the ONS mid-2024 bulletin, the provisional mid-2025 estimate, National Records of Scotland (NRS), Welsh Government Statistics, and the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA).
Key Facts — UK Population by Region 2026
UK POPULATION BY NATION — MID-2024 SNAPSHOT
════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
England ████████████████████████████████████████ 56,897,000 (82.1%)
Scotland ████░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░ 5,546,900 (8.0%)
Wales ██░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░ 3,187,000 (4.6%)
Northern Ireland █░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░ 1,927,900 (2.8%)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
UK Total ████████████████████████████████████████ 69,281,400 (100%)
════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
Source: ONS, NRS, Welsh Government, NISRA — mid-2024 (published 2025)
| Key Metric | Data Point |
|---|---|
| UK population (mid-2024, ONS official) | 69,281,400 |
| UK population (mid-2025, ONS provisional) | 69,487,000 |
| UK population (mid-2026, UN projection) | ~69.9 million |
| Annual increase mid-2023 to mid-2024 | +755,300 (+1.1%) — 2nd largest in 75+ years |
| Annual increase mid-2024 to mid-2025 | +206,000 (+0.3%) — sharp slowdown |
| England population (mid-2024) | 56,897,000 |
| Scotland population (mid-2024) | 5,546,900 — record high |
| Wales population (mid-2024) | 3,187,000 |
| Northern Ireland population (mid-2024) | 1,927,900 |
| Net international migration (year to mid-2024) | 738,700 — high but declining |
| Net international migration (year to June 2025) | 204,000 — dramatic fall |
| UK births (year to mid-2024) | 662,100 — lowest in at least 42 years |
| UK deaths (year to mid-2024) | 645,900 — lowest since pre-pandemic |
| Natural change (births minus deaths, mid-2024) | +16,200 — near-zero natural growth |
| UK fertility rate (2024) | ~1.49 children per woman — record low |
| UK median age (2026 est.) | ~40.7 years |
| Median age — England (mid-2024) | 40.2 years |
| Median age — Scotland (mid-2024) | 42.8 years |
| Median age — Wales (mid-2024) | 42.8 years |
| Median age — Northern Ireland (mid-2024) | 40.3 years |
| Population aged 65+ (UK, 2024) | ~18.8% |
| Population aged under 15 (UK, 2024) | ~17.2% |
| UK population density (mid-2024) | 285 people per km² |
| England population density | ~434 people per km² |
| Urban population share | ~84.7% of UK population lives in urban areas |
| UK population 10-year projection (mid-2034) | 71.0 million (+1.7 million, all from net migration) |
| Year deaths projected to exceed births permanently | From mid-2026 onwards (ONS 2024-based projections) |
| Net migration’s share of UK growth (2005–2024) | 68% of all UK population growth |
| Population of London (2024) | ~9.1 million (largest city/region in UK) |
Source: ONS Mid-Year Population Estimates mid-2024 (26 September 2025); ONS Provisional Mid-2025 Estimate (27 November 2025); ONS National Population Projections 2024-based (April 2026); Resolution Foundation analysis April 2026
The key facts table tells the story of two very different population dynamics colliding in 2026. On one hand, the UK’s total population has never been larger, crossing 69.5 million in mid-2025 and projected to reach nearly 70 million by mid-2026 — a number the ONS had long projected but which is now arriving against a backdrop of sharply reduced net migration rather than the record inflows of 2022–2023. On the other hand, the intrinsic growth of the UK population — births minus deaths — is functionally zero and about to go negative permanently. The 662,100 births recorded in the year to mid-2024 are the fewest in at least 42 years, and the ONS’s 2024-based projections confirm that deaths will exceed births from mid-2026 onwards every year for the foreseeable future. From this point on, every person added to the UK population will be the direct result of a migration flow — a demographic reality with profound implications for housing, public services, and regional planning.
The sharp deceleration in net migration — from 738,700 in the year to mid-2024 to just 204,000 in the year to June 2025 — drove the dramatic slowdown in overall population growth: from +755,300 in the mid-2023 to mid-2024 period down to just +206,000 in the mid-2024 to mid-2025 period. This is the consequence of reduced non-EU+ visa grants (particularly study visas), increased emigration by those who originally arrived on study-related visas, and policy changes restricting dependant visa routes. The geographic distribution of these changes is uneven: England absorbs the majority of international migration and saw the highest growth rate, while Wales and Scotland depend more heavily on cross-border internal migration — the net movement of people between UK nations — as well as international arrivals. Northern Ireland’s growth, at just +0.4%, was the most modest of the four nations in both absolute and proportional terms.
UK Population by Nation 2026 — Four Countries Compared
UK POPULATION GROWTH RATE BY NATION — YEAR TO MID-2024
════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
England ████████████████████ +1.2% (+656,500)
Scotland ████████████░░░░░░░░ +0.7% (+40,900)
Wales ████████░░░░░░░░░░░░ +0.6% (+19,300)
Northern Ireland ████░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░ +0.4% (+7,500)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
UK Total +1.1% (+755,300)
════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
| Nation | Population (mid-2024) | Growth (mid-2023 → mid-2024) | % Growth | Main Growth Driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| England | 56,897,000 | +656,500 | +1.2% | Net international migration (+1.2% rate) |
| Scotland | 5,546,900 | +40,900 | +0.7% | Net international migration (+42,600); net UK internal migration (+13,800) |
| Wales | 3,187,000 | +19,300 | +0.6% | Net international migration (+22,700); net internal migration (+4,800) |
| Northern Ireland | 1,927,900 | +7,500 | +0.4% | Net migration (+5,800) + natural change (+1,900) |
| UK Total | 69,281,400 | +755,300 | +1.1% | International migration dominant in all 4 nations |
| England & Wales combined | 61,806,682 | +706,900 | +1.2% | 96% of local authorities grew in mid-2024 |
Source: ONS — Population Estimates for the UK, England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland: mid-2024 (26 September 2025); NRS — Mid-2024 Population Estimates Scotland (August 2025); Welsh Government / ONS — Mid-Year Estimates Wales 2024 (30 July 2025); NISRA — Mid-2024 Population Estimates Northern Ireland (11 September 2025)
The comparative growth picture across the four nations in the year to mid-2024 is one of universal expansion — but with very different structural underpinnings. England’s 1.2% growth was entirely driven by the massive engine of international migration, with 1,235,300 arrivals and 496,500 departures producing a net gain of 738,700 at the UK level in the year to mid-2024. England captures the overwhelming majority of those inflows, particularly into London and the South East. By contrast, both Wales and Scotland had negative natural change — more deaths than births — meaning that without migration, both nations would be shrinking. Scotland recorded more deaths than births in all 32 council areas except Midlothian in 2024; Wales saw more births than deaths in only 2 of 22 local authorities (Cardiff and Newport).
Scotland’s record-high population of 5,546,900 at mid-2024 is a milestone that NRS’s Registrar General characterised as reflecting “unprecedented change.” The population surpassed 5.5 million for the first time in 2023 and grew again in 2024 — yet births and the fertility rate in Scotland are at all-time lows, and 2024 marked the ninth consecutive year in which deaths outnumbered births. Every single unit of Scotland’s growth in 2024 came from people moving there — with three-quarters of the net migration of 56,400 people coming from outside the UK. Northern Ireland’s modest +0.4% growth was more balanced: natural change contributed +1,900 people (19,800 births minus 17,900 deaths), with migration adding the remaining +5,800 — but new 2024-based NISRA projections published in May 2026 reveal that Northern Ireland’s population is projected to peak at just 1.94 million in 2031 before beginning a slow but permanent decline.
England Population by Region 2026 — All 9 Regions
ENGLAND POPULATION BY REGION — MID-2024 ONS ESTIMATES
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London ████████████████████ 9,700,000 (17.0% of England)
South East ███████████████████░ 9,400,000 (16.5%)
North West ███████████████░░░░░ 7,400,000 (13.0%)
East of England █████████████░░░░░░░ 6,300,000 (11.1%)
West Midlands ████████████░░░░░░░░ 5,900,000 (10.4%)
South West ████████████░░░░░░░░ 5,700,000 (10.0%)
Yorkshire & Hum. ████████████░░░░░░░░ 5,500,000 (9.7%)
East Midlands ██████████░░░░░░░░░░ 4,800,000 (8.4%)
North East █████░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░ 2,700,000 (4.7%)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
England Total ████████████████████ 57,100,000 (100%)
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| English Region | Population (mid-2024 est.) | Population Density (per km²) | % of England | Key Demographic Characteristic |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| London | ~9,700,000 | ~5,700 | 17.0% | Highest natural change and net international migration of all regions; net internal out-migration to other English regions |
| South East | ~9,400,000 | ~480 | 16.5% | Largest regional population outside London; major recipient of internal migrants from London |
| North West | ~7,400,000 | ~533 | 13.0% | Third-largest; includes Greater Manchester (3.0m) and Liverpool City Region; strong recent growth |
| East of England | ~6,300,000 | ~324 | 11.1% | Positive natural change; major internal migration recipient from London commuter belt |
| West Midlands | ~5,900,000 | ~435 | 10.4% | Positive natural change — includes West Midlands Metropolitan County (Birmingham, 3.03 million) |
| South West | ~5,700,000 | ~233 | 10.0% | Older age profile; retirement destination; low density; negative natural change |
| Yorkshire & The Humber | ~5,500,000 | ~338 | 9.7% | Includes West Yorkshire (2.4m); negative natural change offset by migration |
| East Midlands | ~4,800,000 | ~321 | 8.4% | Positive natural change; among fastest growing English regions by % in East Midlands Belt |
| North East | ~2,700,000 | ~308 | 4.7% | Smallest English region; persistent employment and outmigration challenges; ageing population |
| England Total | ~57,100,000 | ~434 | 100% | 84% of UK total; 96% of all English local authorities grew in mid-2024 |
Source: ONS — Population Estimates for England and Wales: mid-2024 (30 July 2025); BritClock — England Population 2026 (sourcing ONS mid-2024 estimates); ONS Regional Population Dataset, Table 35-10-0177-01; Statista citing ONS September 26 2025 release
England’s nine regions reveal the profound geographic concentration of the UK’s population — and its growth engine. London and the South East together hold approximately 19 million people, representing more than one-third of England’s entire population and nearly 27% of the total UK population. London is simultaneously the region with the highest rates of international migration inflow and the highest rate of net internal out-migration: people arriving internationally and then, over time, dispersing to surrounding regions — the South East, East of England, and East Midlands in particular. The natural change data from the mid-2024 bulletin is instructive: only four regions had positive natural change — London, the South East, West Midlands and the East of England. The remaining five regions, including the large North West, Yorkshire & The Humber, South West, East Midlands, and North East, all had more deaths than births in the year to mid-2024, reflecting the ageing demographic structure of these areas.
The North East remains England’s smallest region by population, home to approximately 2.7 million people — fewer than Greater Manchester’s urban area alone — and faces persistent structural challenges including higher unemployment, lower average wages, and net outward migration of younger working-age adults to London and other cities. The contrast with London’s density of approximately 5,700 people per km² and the North East’s 308 per km² encapsulates one of the UK’s defining demographic fault lines: a capital city of extraordinary density and dynamism, surrounded by regions of very different economic and demographic trajectories. The highest growth rate recorded for any individual local authority in the year to mid-2024 was the City of London at +11.1%, reflecting small-base effects and post-pandemic office return; the biggest decline was the Isles of Scilly at -2.8%, similarly a small-population outlier.
Scotland Population Statistics 2026 — Council Areas & Key Data
SCOTLAND POPULATION — LARGEST COUNCIL AREAS (mid-2024, NRS)
════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
Glasgow City ████████████████████ 650,300 (11.7% of Scotland)
Edinburgh City ████████████░░░░░░░░ 530,680 ( 9.6%)
Fife ███████░░░░░░░░░░░░░ 374,760 ( 6.8%)
North Lanarkshire██████░░░░░░░░░░░░░░ 360,000+ ( 6.5%)
South Lanarkshire███████░░░░░░░░░░░░░ 330,000+ ( 6.0%)
Aberdeen City █████░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░ 230,000+ ( 4.2%)
Highland █████░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░ 237,290 ( 4.3%)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
Scotland Total ████████████████████ 5,546,900 (record high)
════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
| Metric | Data Point |
|---|---|
| Scotland total population (mid-2024) | 5,546,900 — all-time record high |
| Population growth (mid-2023 to mid-2024) | +40,900 (+0.7%) |
| Net international migration (year to mid-2024) | +42,600 |
| Net UK internal migration (year to mid-2024) | +13,800 |
| Natural change (births minus deaths, mid-2024) | Negative — more deaths than births in 31 of 32 council areas |
| Consecutive years of deaths exceeding births | 9th year in a row (as of 2024) — confirmed by NRS |
| Scotland fertility rate (2026 est.) | ~1.30 children per woman — lowest in UK |
| Median age (mid-2024) | 42.8 years |
| Population aged 65+ (mid-2024) | 20.5% — up from 16.2% in mid-2004 |
| Population aged 0–15 (mid-2024) | 16.2% — down from 18.4% in mid-2004 |
| Largest council area — Glasgow City | 650,300 (+1.8% in year to mid-2024) |
| Second largest — City of Edinburgh | 530,680 (+1.2%, up from 524,140 in 2023) |
| Third largest — Fife | ~374,760 |
| Fastest growing council areas (mid-2024) | Glasgow City (+1.8%), Midlothian (+1.5%), Edinburgh (+1.2%), East Lothian (+1.2%), West Lothian (+1.2%) |
| Council areas with declining populations (mid-2024) | 5 areas: Argyll & Bute (-0.3%), Angus (-0.1%), Dundee City (-0.1%), Na h-Eileanan Siar, Dumfries & Galloway |
| Highland council area population | 237,290 (+0.3% in year to mid-2024) |
| Growth in population aged 75+ (since mid-2004) | +43% over 20 years |
| Scotland population projection (mid-2047) | ~5.8 million (if recent trends continue — NRS) |
| Scotland’s share of UK population | ~8.0% |
| Only council area with more births than deaths (mid-2024) | Midlothian — one of fastest growing areas |
Source: NRS — Mid-Year Population Estimates for Scotland: mid-2024 (August 2025); NRS — Scotland’s Population 2024 (Registrar General’s Annual Report, November 2025); NRS Council Area Profiles (Edinburgh, Highland — last updated August 2025); Statista citing NRS/ONS September 2025
Scotland’s population data in 2026 tells a story the NRS’s own Registrar General has described as one of “unprecedented change.” The headline figure — a record-high 5,546,900 — is genuinely historic, representing Scotland’s first-ever crossing of the 5.5 million threshold (which was passed during 2023 on revised estimates). Yet the demographic foundations of this milestone are anything but reassuring. Scotland’s fertility rate of approximately 1.30 children per woman is the lowest in the UK, and for the ninth consecutive year in 2024, deaths outnumbered births. Only Midlothian — a rapidly developing commuter zone south of Edinburgh — recorded more births than deaths across all 32 council areas. The entire weight of population growth rests on Scotland’s ability to attract and retain migrants, with three-quarters of its net migration inflow in 2024 coming from outside the UK.
The Central Belt dominance of Scottish population geography is stark: Glasgow City (650,300) and Edinburgh (530,680) together account for more than one-fifth of Scotland’s entire population, and their neighbouring council areas — Midlothian, East Lothian, West Lothian, North Lanarkshire — are among the fastest growing in the country. By contrast, Argyll and Bute, the rural Highlands periphery, Na h-Eileanan Siar (the Western Isles), and Dumfries and Galloway are all losing population. The Highland council area, despite covering the vast majority of Scotland’s land mass at 237,290 people, saw growth slow to just +0.3%. Scotland’s ageing trajectory is steeper than England’s: with 20.5% of the population now aged 65 or over — up from 16.2% twenty years ago — and a 75-and-over cohort that has grown 43% since 2004, the fiscal and service demands of an older Scotland are already structurally significant.
Wales Population Statistics 2026 — Local Authorities & Key Data
WALES POPULATION — LOCAL AUTHORITY TRENDS (mid-2024, ONS/Welsh Gov.)
════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
Cardiff ████████████████████ ~388,000 (12.2% of Wales) — fastest growing city
Swansea ██████████░░░░░░░░░░ ~247,000 ( 7.8%)
Rhondda Cynon Taf███████░░░░░░░░░░░░░ ~239,000 ( 7.5%)
Carmarthenshire ██████░░░░░░░░░░░░░░ ~190,000 ( 6.0%)
Newport █████░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░ ~160,000 ( 5.0%) — fastest % growth 2023-24 (+1.7%)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
Wales Total ████████████████████ 3,187,000
One LGA declined (Isle of Anglesey) │ 21 of 22 LGAs grew in mid-2024
════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
| Metric | Data Point |
|---|---|
| Wales total population (mid-2024) | 3,187,000 |
| Population growth (mid-2023 to mid-2024) | +19,300 (+0.6%) |
| Net international migration (year to mid-2024) | +22,700 — primary growth driver |
| Net UK internal migration (year to mid-2024) | +4,800 — net inflow from rest of UK |
| Natural change (births minus deaths, mid-2024) | Negative — approximately 8,100 fewer births than deaths |
| Local authorities with population growth (mid-2024) | 21 of 22 local authorities |
| Only local authority with population decrease | Isle of Anglesey — small decline |
| Fastest growing local authority (mid-2024) | Newport: +1.7% |
| Local authorities with more births than deaths | Cardiff and Newport only |
| Median age — Wales (mid-2024) | 42.8 years — joint oldest in UK with Scotland |
| Median age — Cardiff (mid-2024) | Below Wales average — youngest major urban area |
| Median age — Swansea (mid-2024) | 40.2 years — 3rd lowest in Wales |
| Population aged 65+ (mid-2024, Wales) | 21.7% (693,000 people) — highest share of any UK nation |
| Households in Wales (mid-2024) | 1.39 million (+10,200 / +0.7% from mid-2023) |
| Average household size (Wales, mid-2024) | 2.25 persons (down from 2.52 in 1991) |
| Household population (private households, mid-2024) | 3.13 million |
| Wales population (mid-2022, revised) | 3,134,000 |
| Wales population (mid-2023, revised) | 3,167,000 |
| 10-year population projection (mid-2034) | 3.22 million (+1.0% from mid-2024) |
| Projected peak population | Modest long-term growth then potential plateau — 2024-based projections show lower trajectory than previously estimated |
| Wales share of UK population | ~4.6% |
Source: Welsh Government / ONS — Mid-Year Estimates of the Population: 2024 (30 July 2025); Statistics Wales Demography Newsletter September 2025 (GOV.WALES); Statistics Wales Demography Newsletter March 2026 (GOV.WALES); Welsh Government 2024-based National Population Projections (GOV.WALES, April/May 2026)
Wales in 2026 is a nation in a demographic holding pattern: population is growing, but only because migration — both international and internal from the rest of the UK — is more than compensating for a natural change that has been negative since mid-2017. The 3,187,000 people living in Wales at mid-2024 represent the third successive annual increase, but the underlying structural position is fragile. With an average deficit of approximately 8,100 births versus deaths per year, and a Welsh fertility rate that has been declining since 2012, Wales is entirely dependent on migration to sustain its population. The fact that only Cardiff and Newport — Wales’s most economically dynamic urban centres with the youngest age profiles — recorded more births than deaths in the year to mid-2024 is a precise map of the challenge.
Wales has the oldest median age of any UK nation at 42.8 years (tied with Scotland) and the highest share of population aged 65 or over at 21.7%. More than one-in-five Welsh residents is now a pensioner — a ratio that is projected to rise further given that the number of deaths is expected to increase by 8.2% over the next decade while births decline a further 9.2% (Welsh Government 2024-based projections). The 2024-based national population projections for Wales — published in spring 2026 — paint a more cautious picture than previous projections: due to lower assumed future migration and fertility, they show a lower projected population trajectory than any previous set of projections, and the only set to project a potential decrease in population during the medium-term projection window under certain scenarios. By mid-2034, Wales is projected at just 3.22 million — barely 1% above today’s level.
Northern Ireland Population Statistics 2026 — Districts & Key Data
NORTHERN IRELAND POPULATION — DISTRICT GROWTH OVERVIEW (mid-2024, NISRA)
════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
Belfast Metro ████████████████████ ~340,000 (largest LGD, ~17.6%)
Armagh/Banbridge ████████████░░░░░░░░ ~222,000 (2nd largest)
Mid & East Antrim████████░░░░░░░░░░░░ ~145,000
Derry/Strabane ████████░░░░░░░░░░░░ ~151,000 (fastest growing +1.0%)
Lisburn/Castlergh████████░░░░░░░░░░░░ ~143,000 (+9.0% over 2014–2024)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
NI Total ████████████████████ 1,927,900
Only 1 LGD declined → Newry, Mourne & Down (-0.2%)
════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
| Metric | Data Point |
|---|---|
| Northern Ireland total population (mid-2024) | 1,927,900 |
| Annual growth (mid-2023 to mid-2024) | +7,500 (+0.4%) |
| Natural change (births minus deaths) | +1,900 (19,800 births − 17,900 deaths) |
| Net migration contribution | +5,800 (28,200 arrivals − 22,500 departures) |
| International migration (net, mid-2024) | +6,000 (16,900 in − 10,900 out) |
| Median age (mid-2024) | 40.3 years — up from 38.1 years in 2014 |
| Population aged 65+ (mid-2024) | 18.1% (349,200 people) |
| Population aged under 16 (mid-2024) | 20.0% (384,700 children) |
| Population aged 85+ (mid-2024) | 42,900 — up 24.6% from 2014; grew 5x faster than overall NI population |
| Fastest growing LGD (mid-2024) | Derry City and Strabane: +1.0% |
| Only LGD with population decline (mid-2024) | Newry, Mourne and Down: -0.2% |
| Largest growth LGD (2014–2024, 10 years) | Lisburn and Castlereagh: +9.0% |
| Smallest growth LGD (2014–2024) | Causeway Coast and Glens: +0.4% |
| NI population (2014) | ~1,850,000 — growth of ~78,000 (4.2%) over a decade |
| NI projected population peak | 1.94 million in 2031 — then expected to decline (NISRA 2024-based projections, May 2026) |
| NI projected population by mid-2049 | 1.91 million — 18,100 (0.9%) lower than previous 2022-based projection |
| NI share of UK population | ~2.8% |
| NI as only UK nation with still-positive natural change | Yes — unique position in UK in 2024 |
Source: NISRA — 2024 Mid-Year Population Estimates for Northern Ireland (11 September 2025); NISRA — 2024-based Population Projections for Northern Ireland (May 2026); NI Newsletter / Armagh I reporting on NISRA figures (September 2025)
Northern Ireland’s demographic position in 2026 is uniquely nuanced within the UK context. It is the only nation in the United Kingdom still recording positive natural change — more births than deaths — albeit at a very modest level (+1,900 in the year to mid-2024). This reflects Northern Ireland’s historically higher birth rate and younger age structure compared to the rest of the UK. With 20.0% of the population under 16 — the highest proportion in any UK nation — Northern Ireland still has more demographic momentum from its own population than Scotland or Wales. However, the trajectory is clear: the under-16 share has fallen from 24.3% in 1999 to 20.0% in 2024, the over-65 share has risen from 13.1% to 18.1% over the same period, and the median age has climbed from 38.1 in 2014 to 40.3 in 2024 — a 2.2-year increase in a single decade.
The district-level picture illustrates the economic geography of Northern Ireland’s growth. Derry City and Strabane — long one of the most economically disadvantaged areas — recorded the fastest growth in 2024 (+1.0%), while Lisburn and Castlereagh recorded the largest 10-year growth of any district at +9.0% from 2014 to 2024, reflecting its commuter-belt relationship with Belfast. Newry, Mourne and Down was the only declining district in 2024 (-0.2%). The most striking forward-looking data point comes from NISRA’s 2024-based projections published in May 2026: Northern Ireland’s population is now projected to peak at just 1.94 million in 2031 — two years earlier than previously projected — before beginning a slow but permanent decline to around 1.91 million by mid-2049. This represents a material downward revision from the 2022-based projections and marks a significant moment: Northern Ireland joining Wales and Scotland on a trajectory towards long-term population plateau and decline, leaving England as the UK’s sole growing nation in the medium-to-long term.
UK Population Growth Trend 2026 — Historical Comparison
UK POPULATION GROWTH — SELECTED MILESTONES (millions)
════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
1950 ████████████████░░░░░░░░░░░░░░ 50.0m
1971 ████████████████████░░░░░░░░░░ 55.9m
2001 ████████████████████████░░░░░░ 59.1m
2011 █████████████████████████░░░░░ 63.3m
2021 ████████████████████████████░░ 67.0m
mid-2024 ████████████████████████████░░ 69.3m
mid-2025 ████████████████████████████░░ 69.5m (provisional)
2034* █████████████████████████████░ 71.0m (ONS 2024-based projection)
════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
*projection │ Net migration accounts for 100% of growth from mid-2026 onwards
Sources: ONS, UN World Population Prospects 2024 revision
| Year / Period | UK Population | Change | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1950 | ~50.0 million | — | Post-war reconstruction; baby boom begins |
| 1971 | ~55.9 million | +5.9m over 21 years | Natural growth dominant |
| 2001 | ~59.1 million | +3.2m over 30 years | Modest growth; low net migration era |
| 2011 Census | 63.3 million | +4.2m (2001–2011) | Migration underestimated in that decade |
| 2021 Census | 67.0 million | +3.7m (2011–2021) | Natural growth plus rising net migration |
| mid-2022 | 67,596,281 | +596,000 | Net migration surging post-Brexit/pandemic |
| mid-2023 | ~68,526,000 | +930,000 | Largest annual increase in 75+ years (peak) |
| mid-2024 | 69,281,400 | +755,300 | 2nd largest increase in 75+ years; migration still dominant |
| mid-2025 | 69,487,000 | +206,000 | Sharp slowdown — net migration falls to 204,000 |
| mid-2026 (proj.) | ~69.9 million | ~+400,000 | UN medium variant projection |
| mid-2034 (proj.) | ~71.0 million | +1.7m from mid-2024 | All growth from net migration; deaths exceed births from mid-2026 |
| mid-2050 (proj.) | ~73 million | — | Continued slow growth via migration |
Source: ONS — National Population Projections 2024-based (April 2026); ONS Mid-Year Population Estimates mid-2024 (September 2025); ONS Provisional Mid-2025 Estimate (November 2025); Resolution Foundation analysis April 2026; UN World Population Prospects 2024 revision; Commons Library — The UK’s Changing Population (October 2024)
The historical trajectory of the UK’s population growth puts the current moment in sharp relief. The UK grew from 50 million in 1950 to 63.3 million in 2011 — a gain of 13 million in six decades — largely through natural growth, with net migration playing a minor role until the early 2000s. The post-EU-accession migration surge of the 2000s and 2010s accelerated growth, but it was the extraordinary 2022–2023 period — when net migration reached a peak of approximately 685,000 in the year to mid-2023 — that drove the UK’s largest annual population increase in over 75 years. The year to mid-2024 saw the second-largest increase at +755,300, before the provisional mid-2025 figure confirmed a dramatic deceleration to just +206,000 as net migration fell to 204,000.
The forward projections from the ONS’s 2024-based national population projections (published April 2026) reframe the future in stark terms. The UK will continue growing — reaching approximately 71 million by mid-2034 — but the entire increment of 1.7 million people will come from migration. Births in 2024 were approximately 660,000 — a record low down roughly 150,000 from 2011 — and the projections show births falling below 600,000 by 2056. From mid-2026 onwards, deaths permanently exceed births, closing a chapter of natural population growth that has run — with only a brief COVID-19 interruption in 2020 — since the early 20th century. Net migration made up 68% of all UK population growth between 2005 and 2024; from mid-2026, that share becomes 100%.
UK Population Age Structure & Demographic Profile 2026
UK AGE STRUCTURE — MID-2024 vs. 20 YEARS AGO
════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
mid-2004 (approx.) │ mid-2024
Under 16 ████████████░░░░░░ │ █████████░░░░░░░░░ 18.5% → 17.2%
16–64 years ████████████████░░ │ ███████████████░░░ 64.4% → 64.0%
65 and over ████████░░░░░░░░░░ │ ████████████░░░░░░ 16.1% → 18.8%
════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
Median age UK: ~39.0 (2004) → ~40.7 (2024) → projected ~42+ (2034)
Scotland: 65+ was 16.2% in mid-2004 → now 20.5% in mid-2024
Wales: 65+ was ~18% in 2016 → now 21.7% in mid-2024
| Age / Demographic Metric | England | Scotland | Wales | Northern Ireland | UK Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median age (mid-2024) | 40.2 years | 42.8 years | 42.8 years | 40.3 years | ~40.7 years |
| Population aged 65+ (mid-2024) | 18.0% | 20.5% | 21.7% | 18.1% | ~18.8% |
| Population aged under 16 (mid-2024) | 18.6% (under 15: ~17.2% UK) | 16.2% | ~17% | 20.0% | ~17.2% |
| Working-age population 16–64 (mid-2024) | ~63% | ~63% | ~61% | ~61.9% | ~64.0% |
| 65+ change over 20 years | +1.8% per year (England) | +4.3 pp since mid-2004 | +3.7 pp since mid-2016 | +5.0 pp since 1999 | Consistent increase all nations |
| Over-85 population (NI, 2024) | — | — | — | 42,900 (+24.6% since 2014) | Growing rapidly UK-wide |
| Fertility rate (2024) | ~1.54 (UK-born mothers in E&W) | ~1.30 (record low) | ~1.5 (est.) | ~1.8 (higher than rest of UK) | ~1.49 (UK overall, record low) |
| Life expectancy — men (2021–2023) | ~79 | ~76.5 | ~78 | ~78.5 | 78.8 years |
| Life expectancy — women (2021–2023) | ~83 | ~80.7 | ~82 | ~82.5 | 82.8 years |
| Male-to-female ratio (overall, mid-2024) | ~0.97 | ~0.94 | ~0.97 | ~0.97 | 0.99 males per female |
| Projected % aged 65+ by mid-2034 (Wales) | — | — | Increasing further | — | — |
Source: ONS — Mid-Year Population Estimates mid-2024 (26 September 2025); NISRA — Mid-2024 Population Estimates (11 September 2025); NRS — Scotland’s Population 2024 (November 2025); Welsh Government Statistics Wales Demography Newsletter (September 2025); ONS National Life Tables 2021–2023; BritClock citing ONS 2026
The age structure of the UK in 2026 is the product of decades of declining fertility and rising life expectancy — with migration providing the one countervailing force against rapid ageing. The most telling single metric is the median age: at 40.7 years nationally, it has risen from 39.6 years in 2011 and is projected to reach approximately 42 years by 2034. Scotland and Wales, both at 42.8 years, are already at what will be the UK median a decade from now, reflecting the consequences of having had below-average fertility and net outmigration of young people for longer. Northern Ireland at 40.3 years remains younger than the mainland average, a legacy of its historically higher birth rate — but the gap is narrowing rapidly as NI’s own fertility declines.
The 18.8% of the UK population aged 65 and over represents roughly 13 million people — a number that has grown by 23% over the past two decades and is set to reach approximately one in four people by 2050 (ONS 2024-based projections). The implications for the NHS, social care, pension systems, and public finances are already the subject of intense policy debate. Wales’s position — with 21.7% of its population over 65, the highest of any UK nation — foreshadows the national trajectory. The contracting share of children and young people — from 18.5% aged under 16 in 2004 to 17.2% in 2024 — combined with the 2024 births figure being a record low, means that the child cohorts entering school and the workforce over the next 20 years will be structurally smaller than those they replace, intensifying the long-term dependency ratio challenge regardless of migration levels.
Disclaimer: The data research report we present here is based on information found from various sources. We are not liable for any financial loss, errors, or damages of any kind that may result from the use of the information herein. We acknowledge that though we try to report accurately, we cannot verify the absolute facts of everything that has been represented.
