Stomach Flu Statistics in US 2025 | Treatments

Stomach Flu Statistics in US 2025 | Treatments

Stomach Flu Cases in America 2025

The United States faces an unprecedented surge in stomach flu cases during 2025, marking one of the most severe public health challenges witnessed in over a decade. Norovirus, commonly called the stomach flu though entirely unrelated to influenza viruses, has infected millions of Americans throughout this year with devastating consequences. During the week ending January 4, 2025, test positivity rates reached 27.91%, more than doubling the 13.52% rate recorded during the same week in 2024. The dramatic increase signals widespread community transmission across multiple states, with outbreak numbers reaching levels not seen since 2012 when comprehensive tracking systems were first established nationwide.

The virus creates acute gastroenteritis by inflaming the stomach and intestines, producing sudden onset vomiting, diarrhea, stomach cramps, and severe nausea that can incapacitate otherwise healthy individuals for days. Between August 1, 2024 and January 9, 2025, there were 97 suspected and confirmed norovirus outbreaks reported during a single week, with the preceding week recording 128 outbreaks. These weekly totals represent more than double the number of outbreaks documented during comparable periods over the previous three years. The virus spreads with remarkable efficiency through contaminated food and water, direct person-to-person contact, and contaminated surfaces, making containment exceptionally difficult in congregate settings like healthcare facilities, schools, cruise ships, restaurants, and long-term care centers where vulnerable populations reside.

Interesting Facts and Latest Statistics Regarding Stomach Flu in the US 2025

Key Stomach Flu Facts in the US 2025 Statistics
Total Annual Illnesses 19-21 million cases
Annual Hospitalizations 109,000 hospitalizations
Annual Deaths 900 deaths
Emergency Department Visits 465,000 visits annually
Outpatient Clinic Visits 2,270,000 visits annually
Reported Outbreaks Annually 2,500 outbreaks
Peak Outbreak Season November to April
Foodborne Illness Percentage 58% of all foodborne illnesses
Test Positivity Rate (Jan 4, 2025) 27.91%
Test Positivity Rate (Jan 4, 2024) 13.52%
Wastewater Increase (Oct-Nov 2025) 69% nationwide increase
Outbreaks Aug-Nov 2025 153 outbreaks
Outbreaks Aug-Dec 2024 495 outbreaks
Incubation Period 12-48 hours
Illness Duration 1-3 days
Contagious Period After Recovery Up to 2+ weeks

Data Source: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), NoroSTAT Surveillance Network, National Respiratory and Enteric Virus Surveillance System (NREVSS), WastewaterSCAN Program, 2025

The stomach flu statistics for 2025 paint a concerning picture of escalating outbreak activity demanding immediate attention from public health authorities and the general population. The test positivity rate climbed to 27.91% during the week ending January 4, 2025, representing a dramatic increase from the 13.52% positive rate documented during the identical period in 2024. This more than doubling of test positivity indicates extensive community spread across numerous states and regions. The wastewater surveillance data collected through the WastewaterSCAN program reveals that norovirus concentrations surged by 69% nationwide between October and November 2025, with the nation reaching the high category for norovirus activity at the national level according to scientific program managers monitoring viral trends.

The outbreak numbers documented during the 2024-2025 season tell a compelling story about the severity of current transmission patterns. Between August 1 and November 13, 2025, participating states reported 153 norovirus outbreaks through the NoroSTAT surveillance system. By December 11, 2024, the cumulative total had reached 495 outbreaks, substantially exceeding the 363 outbreaks reported during the comparable period in 2023. Weekly reporting shows 97 outbreaks during the week ending January 9, 2025, with the preceding week documenting 128 outbreaks. These weekly totals represent historic highs for early January, with outbreak activity in early January 2025 reaching the highest level for this time of year since comprehensive tracking began in 2012. The CDC confirmed that total outbreak numbers during the 2024-2025 seasonal year exceed those reported during the same periods for both the 2012-2020 and 2021-2024 seasonal years, indicating an exceptional surge in viral transmission that surpasses pre-pandemic baseline activity levels.

Annual Burden of Stomach Flu in the US 2025

Health Impact Category Annual Numbers Affected Groups
Total Illnesses 19-21 million All age groups
Hospitalizations 109,000 43% adults 65+
Deaths 900 86% adults 65+
Emergency Visits 465,000 Mostly young children
Outpatient Visits 2,270,000 Mostly young children
Pediatric Medical Visits 1 million annually Children under 5
Economic Cost $2 billion Healthcare & productivity loss
Dehydration Cases 20-30% requiring care High-risk populations

Data Source: CDC Norovirus Burden Estimates, Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project, National Center for Health Statistics, 2025

The annual burden of stomach flu in the United States remains staggering, with CDC estimates indicating 19 to 21 million illnesses occurring each year from norovirus infections alone. This massive disease burden translates to significant healthcare utilization across all care settings including emergency departments, outpatient clinics, and inpatient hospitalizations. The virus causes approximately 109,000 hospitalizations annually, with older adults bearing a disproportionate share of severe outcomes requiring inpatient medical care. Adults aged 65 years and older account for 43% of all norovirus-associated hospitalizations despite representing a smaller proportion of total case numbers, reflecting their increased vulnerability to severe complications such as profound dehydration and dangerous electrolyte imbalances that can threaten organ function.

The mortality burden from norovirus infections demonstrates striking age-related disparities in disease outcomes. Of the 900 deaths that occur annually from stomach flu complications, an overwhelming 86% occur in adults aged 65 and older. This dramatically elevated death rate reflects both the increased susceptibility of older adults to severe dehydration and the higher prevalence of underlying chronic medical conditions that can complicate recovery and increase mortality risk. Young children also face substantial healthcare burdens, with approximately 465,000 emergency department visits and 1 million pediatric medical visits occurring annually, predominantly among children under 5 years of age. The combined $2 billion annual economic cost encompasses both direct healthcare expenditures and indirect costs from lost workforce productivity, representing a substantial financial burden on American society that extends far beyond the immediate human suffering caused by the illness itself.

Outbreak Statistics in the US 2025

Outbreak Metrics 2024-2025 Season Previous Season Comparison
Total Outbreaks (Aug-Nov 2025) 153 outbreaks 235 outbreaks (Aug-Nov 2024)
Total Outbreaks (Aug-Dec 2024) 495 outbreaks 363 outbreaks (Aug-Dec 2023)
Week Ending Jan 9, 2025 97 outbreaks Double previous 3-year average
Week Ending Jan 2, 2025 128 outbreaks Highest since 2012
Healthcare Facility Outbreaks Over 50% of all outbreaks Long-term care primary setting
Restaurant-Related Outbreaks 50% of foodborne outbreaks Food service worker transmission
Cruise Ship Outbreaks (2024) At least 9 outbreaks in Dec Over 1,250 people affected
Annual Reported Outbreaks 2,500 outbreaks United States total
Peak Outbreak Season November to April Winter months

Data Source: CDC NoroSTAT Data, National Outbreak Reporting System (NORS), Vessel Sanitation Program, 2025

The outbreak statistics for the 2025 season demonstrate unprecedented levels of stomach flu activity across multiple institutional and community settings. During the week ending January 9, 2025, public health authorities reported 97 suspected and confirmed norovirus outbreaks, while the preceding week documented 128 outbreaks. These weekly outbreak totals represent more than double the number recorded during identical periods over the previous three years, signaling an exceptional surge in viral transmission that public health officials characterize as substantial. The cumulative outbreak count from August 1, 2024 through December 11, 2024 reached 495 outbreaks among participating NoroSTAT states, compared to 363 outbreaks during the identical timeframe in the previous season, representing a 36% year-over-year increase in documented outbreak activity.

Healthcare facilities continue representing the most frequently reported setting for norovirus outbreaks in the United States, accounting for over 50% of all documented outbreaks annually. Long-term care facilities, nursing homes, and acute care hospitals experience particularly devastating outbreaks due to the concentration of immunocompromised and elderly populations living in close quarters with shared dining and bathroom facilities. The cruise ship industry has faced significant challenges during 2025, with at least 9 norovirus outbreaks reported on cruise ships under U.S. jurisdiction during December alone, collectively sickening more than 1,250 passengers and crew members. Food service establishments, particularly restaurants, remain critical amplification points for transmission, causing approximately 50% of all food-related illness outbreaks annually. The typical norovirus season extends from November through April, with peak outbreak activity historically occurring during December and January when cold weather drives people indoors and holiday gatherings facilitate rapid person-to-person transmission in enclosed spaces with poor ventilation.

Age-Specific Stomach Flu Incidence Rates in the US 2025

Age Group Community Incidence Hospitalization Burden Death Risk
Children Under 5 Years 152.1 per 1,000 person-years 3x higher than average 1 in 110,000 by age 5
Children 5-15 Years 37.6 per 1,000 person-years Below average Minimal risk
Adults 16-45 Years 68.9 per 1,000 person-years Average risk Low risk
Adults 46-65 Years 101.2 per 1,000 person-years Moderate elevation Moderate risk
Adults 65+ Years 75.8 per 1,000 person-years 43% of hospitalizations 86% of deaths
Cumulative Risk by Age 5 Outpatient: 1 in 7 children Emergency: 1 in 40 children Death: 1 in 110,000

Data Source: CDC Population-Specific Burden Estimates, Kaiser Permanente Community Incidence Studies, National Health Statistics Reports, 2025

The age-specific incidence rates for stomach flu reveal distinct patterns of vulnerability across different life stages and age cohorts. Children under 5 years of age experience the highest community incidence at 152.1 cases per 1,000 person-years, approximately three times higher than the general population average. This substantially elevated rate reflects multiple contributing factors including increased exposure opportunities in childcare and preschool settings, developing immune systems that lack previous norovirus exposure and antibody protection, and behaviors like frequent hand-to-mouth contact that facilitate fecal-oral transmission. By the time a child reaches 5 years of age, cumulative risk calculations indicate that 1 in 7 children will have visited an outpatient clinic for norovirus treatment, 1 in 40 will have required emergency department care for dehydration or severe symptoms, and 1 in 110,000 will die from complications of the infection.

Older adults aged 65 years and older face dramatically elevated risks for severe outcomes and mortality despite experiencing lower overall community incidence rates compared to young children. While their community incidence stands at 75.8 per 1,000 person-years, adults in this age group account for a disproportionate 43% of all norovirus-associated hospitalizations and a staggering 86% of deaths from the infection. This profound mortality disparity reflects the compounding effects of age-related physiological changes including reduced baseline fluid reserves, higher prevalence of chronic medical conditions like heart disease and diabetes that complicate recovery, potentially diminished immune responses to infection, and increased susceptibility to dangerous electrolyte imbalances during prolonged vomiting and diarrhea. Middle-aged adults between 46-65 years demonstrate elevated community incidence rates at 101.2 per 1,000 person-years, the highest of any adult age group, suggesting this demographic also experiences substantial disease burden that may relate to occupational exposures in healthcare and food service industries, caregiving responsibilities for ill children or elderly parents, or the accumulated immune diversity from repeated exposures throughout decades of life.

Foodborne Transmission of Stomach Flu in the US 2025

Foodborne Transmission Data Statistics Key Details
Percentage of All Foodborne Illness 58% of cases Leading cause in US
Restaurant-Related Outbreaks 50% of food outbreaks Food service workers primary source
Infected Food Handlers 70% of outbreaks Direct contamination mechanism
Annual Foodborne Cases 11-12 million From food contamination
High-Risk Foods Leafy greens, fresh fruits, shellfish Frequently implicated
Food Worker Shedding Period Up to 2+ weeks post-recovery Extended transmission window
Prevention Through Handwashing 40% reduction potential Critical intervention
Oyster-Related Outbreaks Multiple in 2024-2025 Washington State contamination

Data Source: CDC Foodborne Disease Outbreak Surveillance System, FDA Safety Alerts, Food Safety and Inspection Service, 2025

Foodborne transmission represents the single largest pathway for stomach flu spread in the United States, with norovirus accounting for an estimated 58% of all foodborne illness cases annually. This dominant role in food safety epidemiology makes norovirus the undisputed leading cause of illness from contaminated food products consumed by Americans. Restaurants and food service establishments serve as critical amplification points for transmission, with approximately 50% of all documented food-related norovirus outbreaks traced back to food service settings where infected workers handle food during preparation, serving, or cleanup activities. The primary contamination mechanism involves infected food handlers who contaminate food items during preparation phases, either through direct touch with unwashed hands or through contaminated surfaces, utensils, and equipment that subsequently contact food products.

Epidemiological research reveals that 70% of norovirus outbreaks linked to food contamination involve an infected food worker as the primary contamination source rather than contaminated ingredients. This extraordinary proportion underscores the absolutely critical importance of proper food safety protocols, adequate sick leave policies that allow symptomatic workers to stay home without financial penalty, and rigorous handwashing enforcement in all food service industries. Food handlers can shed infectious virus particles in their stool for up to 2 weeks or longer after they subjectively feel recovered from symptoms and return to normal activities, creating an extended window during which they can unknowingly contaminate food products and sicken customers. High-risk foods frequently implicated in outbreaks include leafy greens like romaine lettuce and spinach, fresh fruits particularly berries, and shellfish especially raw oysters which can bioconcentrate virus particles filtered from contaminated water. During the 2024-2025 season, the FDA issued safety alerts for oysters harvested from Washington State’s Hammersley Inlet due to norovirus contamination. Studies conclusively demonstrate that proper handwashing with soap and water among food workers could prevent approximately 40% of norovirus transmission, making this simple behavioral intervention one of the most cost-effective public health measures available for disease prevention.

Transmission Patterns of Stomach Flu in the US 2025

Transmission Route Characteristics Prevention Measures
Person-to-Person Contact Most common transmission route Hand hygiene, isolation of sick individuals
Contaminated Surfaces Virus survives days to weeks Bleach disinfection, terminal cleaning
Foodborne Transmission 58% of foodborne illness Proper food handling, worker health policies
Waterborne Transmission Less common but significant Water treatment, avoiding untreated sources
Vomit Aerosols Airborne droplets Distance from ill persons, proper ventilation
Viral Particles for Infection Fewer than 100 particles Extremely infectious dose
Infectious Dose As low as 18 viral particles Very low threshold for illness
Surface Survival Days to weeks on surfaces Environmental persistence challenge
Peak Shedding Period 24-48 hours after symptom onset Highest transmission risk window
Post-Recovery Shedding Up to 2+ weeks after symptoms resolve Extended contagious period

Data Source: CDC Norovirus Transmission Studies, Journal of Infectious Diseases, Environmental Health Perspectives, Applied and Environmental Microbiology, 2025

Person-to-person transmission serves as the primary spread mechanism for stomach flu, occurring through direct contact with infected individuals or indirect exposure to microscopic amounts of their vomit or stool. The virus spreads with extraordinary efficiency because it requires an incredibly low infectious dose of fewer than 100 viral particles to cause clinical illness, with rigorous laboratory studies suggesting as few as 18 viral particles may be sufficient to establish infection in susceptible hosts. This extraordinarily low infectious threshold means that microscopic, invisible amounts of contaminated material invisible to the naked eye can efficiently transmit the infection, making casual contact in households, healthcare facilities, schools, and other congregate settings remarkably efficient at propagating disease through communities. Even brief exposures to contaminated surfaces or proximity to ill individuals can result in transmission.

The remarkable environmental persistence of norovirus contributes significantly to its transmission success and makes outbreak control exceptionally challenging. The virus can survive on contaminated hard surfaces like countertops, doorknobs, and handrails for days to weeks while remaining fully infectious throughout this extended period. Common high-touch surfaces such as bathroom faucet handles, light switches, stair railings, and shared electronic devices serve as persistent reservoirs for transmission between successive individuals who touch these surfaces. Peak viral shedding occurs during the 24-48 hours immediately after symptom onset, when infected individuals release the highest concentrations of virus particles exceeding billions per gram in their stool and vomit. However, infected individuals can continue shedding infectious virus for up to 2 weeks or substantially longer after all symptoms completely resolve and they feel entirely normal, creating a prolonged period of potential transmission even when people have returned to work, school, and normal social activities believing themselves no longer contagious.

Clinical Symptoms of Stomach Flu in the US 2025

Symptom Frequency in Patients Typical Duration Severity Characteristics
Diarrhea 80-90% of cases 1-3 days Watery, non-bloody, frequent
Vomiting 70-80% of cases 12-48 hours Sudden onset, often forceful
Nausea 90% of cases 1-3 days Severe and persistent
Stomach Cramps 70-80% of cases 1-3 days Abdominal pain, cramping
Fever 30-40% of cases 1-2 days Low-grade, under 101°F
Headache 40-50% of cases 1-3 days Variable intensity
Body Aches 40-50% of cases 1-3 days Muscle pain, fatigue
Dehydration Signs 20-30% requiring medical care Variable Decreased urination, dizziness

Data Source: CDC Clinical Manifestations Data, Mayo Clinic Patient Studies, New England Journal of Medicine, 2025

The clinical symptoms of stomach flu typically manifest with sudden, dramatic onset that can rapidly incapacitate affected individuals. The hallmark symptom triad consists of acute diarrhea, severe vomiting, and intense nausea that together occur in the vast majority of confirmed cases. Diarrhea affects 80-90% of infected patients, characteristically presenting as watery, non-bloody bowel movements occurring multiple times per hour during peak illness. The diarrhea results from viral damage to intestinal epithelial cells and inflammation of the intestinal lining that impairs normal fluid absorption. Vomiting occurs in 70-80% of cases and often begins suddenly without warning, frequently described by patients as projectile or forceful in nature. The vomiting can be particularly distressing and exhausting, sometimes occurring multiple times per hour during the acute phase of illness.

Nausea represents the most universal symptom, affecting approximately 90% of infected individuals and often persisting even after vomiting episodes have ceased. The severe, unrelenting nausea can make eating and drinking extraordinarily difficult, contributing to dehydration risk. Stomach cramps and abdominal pain affect 70-80% of patients, ranging from mild discomfort to severe cramping that patients describe as debilitating. Low-grade fever under 101°F occurs in 30-40% of cases, more commonly in children than adults. Headache and body aches affect 40-50% of patients, contributing to the overall feeling of profound illness and exhaustion. The symptom complex typically develops 12-48 hours after initial virus exposure and lasts 1-3 days in immunocompetent individuals. However, dehydration represents the most serious complication, affecting 20-30% of cases severely enough to require medical intervention. Warning signs of dangerous dehydration include markedly decreased urination or dark-colored urine, severe dizziness or lightheadedness especially when standing, extreme fatigue and weakness, dry mouth and excessive thirst, and in children unusual sleepiness or irritability.

Treatment Options for Stomach Flu in the US 2025

Treatment Category Recommended Interventions Clinical Evidence
Oral Rehydration Solutions Pedialyte, Naturalyte, Infalyte, CeraLyte WHO and AAP first-line recommendation
Intravenous Fluids Normal saline, Lactated Ringer’s solution For severe dehydration or intractable vomiting
Antiemetic Medications Ondansetron (Zofran) Reduces vomiting, aids oral rehydration
Antimotility Agents Loperamide (Imodium) adults only Use with caution, not in children
Bismuth Subsalicylate Pepto-Bismol, Kaopectate adults only Limited benefit, avoid in children
Acetaminophen/Ibuprofen For fever and body aches Symptomatic relief
Sports Drinks Acceptable for adults Not optimal for children
Clear Broths Supplemental fluid source Additional electrolytes

Data Source: CDC Treatment Guidelines, World Health Organization Recommendations, American Academy of Pediatrics Clinical Guidelines, Mayo Clinic Treatment Protocols, 2025

There exists no specific antiviral medication to directly target and eliminate norovirus from the body, making supportive care the absolute cornerstone of treatment for stomach flu. The primary therapeutic focus centers on preventing and treating dehydration through aggressive fluid replacement, as dehydration represents the most dangerous complication that can lead to serious health consequences or death if left untreated. Oral rehydration solutions specifically formulated with precise ratios of glucose and electrolytes represent the gold standard first-line treatment recommended by both the World Health Organization and the American Academy of Pediatrics. These commercially available products including Pedialyte, Naturalyte, Infalyte, and CeraLyte contain optimal concentrations of sodium, potassium, and other electrolytes combined with glucose that facilitates intestinal absorption through sodium-glucose cotransport mechanisms even during active diarrhea.

For children with viral gastroenteritis, parents should provide oral rehydration solutions as directed to replace lost fluids and electrolytes, with infants continuing breastmilk or formula feeding as usual. Oral rehydration solutions prove superior to sports drinks and fruit juices for pediatric patients because commercial sports beverages contain excessive carbohydrate concentrations and suboptimal electrolyte compositions that can actually worsen diarrhea through osmotic effects. Adults with severe diarrhea or symptoms of dehydration should likewise consume oral rehydration solutions rather than relying solely on water. When patients cannot tolerate oral fluids due to intractable vomiting or develop signs of severe dehydration, intravenous fluid administration becomes medically necessary and may require emergency department visit or hospital admission for fluid resuscitation.

Antiemetic medications like ondansetron (Zofan) can provide significant symptomatic relief by reducing vomiting frequency and severity, thereby facilitating successful oral rehydration and potentially preventing the need for intravenous fluids. However, clinical practice guidelines express mixed recommendations regarding antiemetic use in children due to potential adverse effects. For adults, antimotility agents like loperamide (Imodium) and bismuth subsalicylate (Pepto-Bismol, Kaopectate) can serve as useful adjuncts to rehydration therapy for managing diarrhea symptoms, though these medications can be unsafe for infants and children and should never be administered without explicit physician guidance. Over-the-counter medications like acetaminophen or ibuprofen can help relieve fever, headaches, and body aches to improve patient comfort during illness. Antibiotics are completely ineffective against norovirus and should never be used, as the infection stems from a virus rather than bacteria.

Prevention Strategies for Stomach Flu in the US 2025

Prevention Method Effectiveness Implementation Details
Handwashing with Soap and Water 40% transmission reduction 20 seconds minimum, before eating and after bathroom
Hand Sanitizer Ineffective against norovirus Alcohol doesn’t penetrate viral capsid
Surface Disinfection Highly effective with bleach 1.5-7.5% bleach solution, adequate contact time
Isolation of Sick Individuals Prevents secondary transmission Stay home 48+ hours after symptom resolution
Food Handler Exclusion Prevents foodborne outbreaks Exclude workers with symptoms plus 48 hours
Proper Food Handling Reduces contamination Wash produce, cook shellfish thoroughly
Avoiding Raw Shellfish Eliminates shellfish transmission Cook oysters and clams completely
Cohorting in Healthcare Reduces institutional outbreaks Separate infected patients from others

Data Source: CDC Prevention Guidelines, Environmental Protection Agency Disinfection Standards, Food and Drug Administration Food Safety Recommendations, 2025

Proper handwashing with soap and water for at least 20 seconds represents the single most effective preventive measure individuals can take to reduce norovirus transmission and protect themselves from infection. The mechanical action of vigorous handwashing combined with soap effectively removes virus particles from hands, with studies demonstrating that proper hand hygiene among food workers alone could prevent approximately 40% of norovirus transmission in food service settings. Critically, hand sanitizer proves ineffective against norovirus despite working well against many other pathogens, because alcohol-based sanitizers cannot adequately penetrate the tough protein capsid shell that protects norovirus particles. Therefore, soap and water handwashing remains absolutely essential and cannot be replaced by hand sanitizer for norovirus prevention.

Surface disinfection requires bleach-based cleaners to effectively kill norovirus on contaminated surfaces, as the virus demonstrates remarkable resistance to many common household disinfectants and cleaning agents. The CDC specifically recommends cleaning surfaces with a solution containing 1.5% to 7.5% household bleach diluted in water, or using EPA-registered products proven effective against norovirus. Adequate contact time of several minutes must be ensured for disinfectants to work properly. Items contaminated with vomit or stool that cannot be properly disinfected should be discarded entirely. Isolation of sick individuals represents another critical control measure, with infected persons strongly advised to stay home from work, school, and social activities for at least 48 hours after symptoms completely resolve due to continued viral shedding. This proves especially important for food service workers, healthcare workers, and childcare providers who can transmit infection to vulnerable or numerous individuals. Proper food handling including thoroughly washing fruits and vegetables before consumption and ensuring shellfish like oysters and clams are completely cooked rather than consumed raw can dramatically reduce foodborne transmission risk. In healthcare facilities and institutional settings, cohorting infected patients separately from uninfected individuals, implementing strict contact precautions, and considering temporary exclusion of symptomatic staff can help control outbreak spread.

Vaccine Development for Stomach Flu in the US 2025

Vaccine Status Current Phase Key Information
Currently Available Vaccine None approved No norovirus vaccine available yet
Moderna Vaccine Candidate Phase 3 clinical trial mRNA-based vaccine platform
Candidate Vaccine Targets GI and GII genotypes Cross-protection demonstrated
Clinical Trial Status Ongoing as of 2025 At least two vaccines in trials
Expected Protection Cross-protection against non-GII.4 strains Some level confirmed in studies
Challenges Multiple genotypes and strains Virus mutates rapidly
Estimated Timeline Under investigation Vaccine efficacy and duration studies underway

Data Source: CDC Vaccine Development Updates, Moderna Clinical Trial Registry, Vaccine Research Publications, 2025

Currently, no vaccine exists to prevent norovirus infection, representing a significant gap in public health infectious disease prevention capabilities. However, promising vaccine development efforts are actively underway with at least two candidate vaccines in clinical trials as of April 2025. Moderna has advanced an mRNA-based norovirus vaccine into Phase 3 clinical trials, leveraging the same messenger RNA technology platform that proved highly successful for COVID-19 vaccines. This represents the most advanced vaccine candidate currently in development and offers hope for eventual norovirus prevention through immunization.

Candidate vaccines under investigation target GI and GII genotypes that account for the vast majority of human norovirus infections worldwide. Early clinical trial data suggests these vaccine candidates can induce cross-protection against non-GII.4 virus strains, indicating that some meaningful level of cross-protective immunity may be achievable even given the substantial genetic diversity among circulating norovirus strains. However, significant challenges remain in vaccine development due to the existence of multiple distinct norovirus genotypes and the virus’s ability to rapidly mutate and evolve new variants that can evade existing immunity. Further studies are currently underway to accurately estimate vaccine efficacy percentages and determine the duration of protective immunity conferred by vaccination. Public health experts anticipate that an effective norovirus vaccine could dramatically reduce disease burden, particularly protecting vulnerable populations like young children, elderly adults, and immunocompromised individuals who suffer disproportionately from severe complications.

Emerging Strains of Stomach Flu in the US 2025

Viral Strain Prevalence Significance
GII.17 [P17] 69.7% of genotyped outbreaks Dominant strain Sept-Dec 2024
GII.4 Previously dominant Global epidemic strain historically
Lower Population Immunity Major factor in 2025 surge New strain with less prior exposure
Rapid Mutation Rate Ongoing concern Allows immune escape
Genogroup Distribution 7 genogroups identified GI and GII infect humans primarily
Strain Evolution Continuous genetic changes Affects disease burden patterns

Data Source: CDC CaliciNet Surveillance Network, Viral Genomic Sequencing Data, International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses, 2025

The 2025 stomach flu season in the United States is being shaped by the rapid emergence and spread of new norovirus strains, particularly GII.17 [P17], which accounted for 69.7% of all genotyped outbreaks from September to December 2024. This marks a major shift from the traditionally dominant GII.4 strain, which has historically driven global norovirus epidemics. The rise of GII.17 is especially significant because the population has had lower prior immunity to this strain, allowing it to spread more easily and contribute to a noticeable increase in infections entering 2025. Its rapid mutation capability also raises concerns about immune escape and reduced effectiveness of natural immunity from past outbreaks.

Norovirus continues to show substantial genetic diversity, with seven known genogroups, though only GI and GII primarily infect humans. Continuous strain evolution plays a major role in altering transmission patterns, seasonal severity, and overall disease burden in the US. The combination of viral adaptability, low immunity to emerging variants, and shifting genogroup distributions suggests that 2025 may experience more widespread and unpredictable outbreaks. Ongoing surveillance of viral evolution will be essential for public health preparedness, early warnings, and potential vaccine development strategies.

Disclaimer: The data research report we present here is based on information found from various sources. We are not liable for any financial loss, errors, or damages of any kind that may result from the use of the information herein. We acknowledge that though we try to report accurately, we cannot verify the absolute facts of everything that has been represented.

📩Subscribe to Our Newsletter

Get must-read Data Reports, Global Insights, and Trend Analysis — delivered directly to your inbox.