Interest Rate Statistics in the US 2025
The Interest Rate Statistics in the US 2025 landscape reveals a monetary policy environment characterized by strategic patience and careful economic assessment. As we approach the final quarter of 2025, the Federal Reserve has maintained the federal funds rate in a target range of 4.25% to 4.50%, reflecting a measured approach to balancing price stability with employment objectives. This rate level, unchanged since December 2024, represents a critical juncture where policymakers are evaluating incoming economic data to determine future policy directions. The current Interest Rate Statistics 2025 demonstrate the Fed’s commitment to data-dependent decision-making amid evolving economic conditions.
Throughout 2025, the Interest Rate Statistics in the US 2025 have been shaped by persistent inflation concerns, robust labor market dynamics, and global economic uncertainties. The Treasury yield curve has shown notable fluctuations, with current yields ranging from 4.35% for 1-month Treasury bills to 4.96% for 30-year Treasury bonds, reflecting market expectations for potential policy adjustments. Markets are pricing in an 87% probability of a 0.25% rate cut at the September 2025 Federal Reserve meeting, indicating widespread expectations for monetary policy easing. These developments underscore the complex interplay between monetary policy implementation and broader economic fundamentals that define the Interest Rate Statistics in the US 2025 environment.
Interesting Stats & Facts about Interest Rates in the US 2025
| Fact Category | Key Statistics | Details |
|---|---|---|
| Federal Funds Rate Target | 4.25% – 4.50% | Unchanged for 8 consecutive months |
| 30-Year Treasury Yield | 4.96% | Current level as of August 2025 |
| 10-Year Treasury Note | 4.43% | Key benchmark for long-term rates |
| 1-Month Treasury Bill | 4.35% | Short-term government funding rate |
| Market Rate Cut Probability | 87% | Expected for September 2025 meeting |
| 6-Week Treasury Bill | 4.41% | New benchmark launched February 2025 |
| Treasury Yield Curve Spread | 0.61% | 30-year minus 1-month differential |
| Federal Reserve Meetings | 8 meetings annually | Next decision September 17-18, 2025 |
| Interest Rate Pause Duration | 8 months | Longest hold since hiking cycle |
| Treasury Constant Maturity | MC Method | Monotone convex methodology since 2021 |
The Interest Rate Statistics in the US 2025 present compelling insights into monetary policy dynamics and market expectations. The benchmark federal funds rate remains at 4.50 percent, representing the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target range and marking the longest period of rate stability since the conclusion of the aggressive tightening cycle. Notably, the Treasury Department’s introduction of the 6-week Treasury bill as a benchmark security has expanded short-term funding options, providing additional granularity for monetary policy implementation and market analysis.
The current Interest Rate Statistics 2025 environment showcases significant market anticipation for policy changes, with markets pricing in approximately 2.5 rate cuts across the year’s remaining three Federal Reserve meetings. The Treasury yield curve structure demonstrates a relatively normal upward slope, with yields progressing from 4.35% for 1-month bills to 4.96% for 30-year bonds. This configuration suggests that while short-term rates reflect current Federal Reserve policy, long-term yields incorporate expectations for future economic growth, inflation trends, and potential monetary policy adjustments. The 61 basis point spread between long and short-term rates indicates market confidence in the Federal Reserve’s ability to manage the economic transition effectively.
Federal Interest Rate by Year
| Year | Federal Funds Rate Range (%) | Peak Rate (%) | Year-End Rate (%) | Rate Changes | Policy Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 0.00 – 0.25 | 1.75 | 0.25 | 7 cuts | Emergency easing |
| 2021 | 0.00 – 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0 changes | Accommodative hold |
| 2022 | 0.25 – 4.50 | 4.50 | 4.50 | 7 hikes | Aggressive tightening |
| 2023 | 4.50 – 5.50 | 5.50 | 5.50 | 4 hikes | Continued tightening |
| 2024 | 5.50 – 4.50 | 5.50 | 4.50 | 3 cuts | Policy normalization |
| 2025 YTD | 4.25 – 4.50 | 4.50 | 4.50 (Aug) | 0 changes | Strategic pause |
| 2025 Projected | 3.75 – 4.50 | 4.50 | 3.75 (Est) | 3 cuts expected | Gradual easing |
| Long-term Neutral | 2.50 – 3.00 | N/A | N/A | N/A | Fed estimate |
The Federal Interest Rate by Year in the US 2025 demonstrates the dramatic monetary policy journey from the emergency pandemic response through the current normalization phase. The Federal Reserve’s unprecedented easing in 2020, reducing rates to near-zero levels, was followed by the most aggressive tightening cycle since the 1980s, with seven consecutive rate hikes in 2022 totaling 425 basis points of increases. The 2023 period saw continued tightening with four additional hikes bringing the federal funds rate to its cycle peak of 5.50%, representing the highest policy rate level since 2007. The 2024 transition marked the beginning of policy normalization with three rate cuts totaling 100 basis points, establishing the current 4.25% to 4.50% target range.
The historical context of Federal Interest Rate by Year in the US 2025 reveals the Federal Reserve’s adaptive approach to changing economic conditions and evolving policy challenges. The current year represents a strategic pause in the easing cycle, with officials maintaining rates unchanged through eight months while carefully assessing economic data and inflation progress. Market expectations for the remainder of 2025 anticipate approximately three additional rate cuts totaling 75 basis points, which would bring the federal funds rate to approximately 3.75% by year-end. This projected path would position policy rates closer to the Federal Reserve’s estimated long-run neutral rate of 2.50% to 3.00%, representing a more sustainable monetary policy stance that neither stimulates nor restricts economic growth. The Federal Interest Rate by Year in the US 2025 trajectory illustrates the complex balance central bankers must maintain between supporting economic stability and achieving dual mandate objectives.
Federal Reserve Policy Rate Decisions in the US 2025
| Meeting Date | Rate Decision (%) | Vote Outcome | Policy Action |
|---|---|---|---|
| January 30, 2025 | 4.25 – 4.50 | Unanimous | Hold |
| March 19, 2025 | 4.25 – 4.50 | 11-1 Hold | Hold |
| May 7, 2025 | 4.25 – 4.50 | Unanimous | Hold |
| June 17-18, 2025 | 4.25 – 4.50 | 10-2 Hold | Hold |
| July 30, 2025 | 4.25 – 4.50 | Unanimous | Hold |
| September 17-18, 2025 | TBD | Pending | 87% Cut Probability |
| November 6-7, 2025 | TBD | Scheduled | Market Watch |
| December 17-18, 2025 | TBD | Scheduled | Year-End Assessment |
The Federal Reserve Policy Rate Decisions in the US 2025 demonstrate a consistent approach to monetary policy implementation amid evolving economic conditions. Fed officials expressed concerns about labor market conditions at their July meeting, though most agreed it was premature to cut rates at that time. The Federal Open Market Committee has maintained remarkable consistency in its rate decisions throughout 2025, with the majority of meetings resulting in unanimous votes to hold rates steady. The few dissenting votes have primarily come from regional Federal Reserve presidents advocating for more aggressive policy adjustments in response to changing economic indicators.
The pattern of Federal Reserve Policy Rate Decisions in the US 2025 reflects the central bank’s commitment to data-dependent policymaking. Recent commentary from Fed officials, including potential chair candidate Waller, suggests openness to half-point cuts if labor market conditions deteriorate further. The upcoming September meeting represents a critical inflection point, with market participants pricing in an 87% probability of a quarter-point rate reduction. This high level of market conviction reflects the accumulation of economic data suggesting that the Federal Reserve’s restrictive monetary policy stance may no longer be necessary to achieve price stability objectives. The unanimous vote at the July meeting, despite growing concerns about economic conditions, demonstrates the committee’s careful deliberation process and commitment to thorough analysis before implementing policy changes.
Treasury Security Yields Across Maturities in the US 2025
| Maturity | Current Yield (%) | Month High (%) | Month Low (%) | Year-to-Date Range (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Month | 4.35 | 4.45 | 4.18 | 4.15 – 4.58 |
| 3 Month | 4.42 | 4.49 | 4.26 | 4.20 – 4.58 |
| 6 Month | 4.30 | 4.45 | 4.14 | 4.10 – 4.45 |
| 1 Year | 4.09 | 4.25 | 3.83 | 3.80 – 4.30 |
| 2 Year | 3.91 | 4.40 | 3.60 | 3.55 – 4.50 |
| 5 Year | 4.15 | 4.70 | 3.72 | 3.70 – 4.75 |
| 10 Year | 4.43 | 4.77 | 3.88 | 3.85 – 4.80 |
| 30 Year | 4.96 | 5.08 | 4.41 | 4.40 – 5.10 |
The Treasury Security Yields Across Maturities in the US 2025 present a comprehensive picture of the government bond market’s response to current economic conditions and policy expectations. The yield curve shows a positive slope with short-term rates around 4.35% for 1-month Treasury bills and long-term rates reaching 4.96% for 30-year Treasury bonds. This configuration represents a return to a more normal yield curve structure after periods of inversion earlier in the year. The intermediate-term securities, particularly the 2-year Treasury note at 3.91%, reflect market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts in the near term.
The volatility ranges across different maturities in Treasury Security Yields Across Maturities in the US 2025 reveal important market dynamics throughout the year. Long-term Treasury bonds have experienced the widest trading ranges, with the 30-year bond fluctuating between 4.41% and 5.08%, indicating significant shifts in long-term economic expectations. The 2-year Treasury note, traditionally most sensitive to Federal Reserve policy changes, has shown substantial volatility with a year-to-date range of 3.55% to 4.50%. This variation reflects evolving market perceptions about the timing and magnitude of potential policy rate adjustments. Recent data shows the 10-year Treasury yield at 4.23%, representing a modest increase from previous sessions, demonstrating ongoing market adjustments to economic data and policy signals.
Commercial Paper and Short-Term Funding Rates in the US 2025
| Instrument Type | Current Rate (%) | Typical Range (%) | Primary Use |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Day Commercial Paper | 4.75 | 4.65 – 4.85 | Corporate short-term funding |
| 60-Day Commercial Paper | 4.68 | 4.58 – 4.78 | Extended corporate financing |
| 90-Day Commercial Paper | 4.62 | 4.52 – 4.72 | Quarterly funding cycles |
| Federal Funds Effective | 4.33 | 4.25 – 4.50 | Interbank overnight lending |
| SOFR Overnight | 4.30 | 4.20 – 4.40 | Secured overnight financing |
| Prime Rate | 7.50 | 7.25 – 7.50 | Bank lending benchmark |
| Eurodollar Futures | 4.15 | 4.05 – 4.35 | Forward rate expectations |
| Repo Rate | 4.28 | 4.20 – 4.35 | Collateralized lending |
The Commercial Paper and Short-Term Funding Rates in the US 2025 market demonstrates the efficient transmission of Federal Reserve monetary policy through various funding mechanisms. Commercial paper rates are derived from trades settled by The Depository Trust Company, representing actual market transactions between dealers and investors. The 30-day commercial paper rate at 4.75% reflects a slight premium above the federal funds rate, consistent with normal credit risk and term premiums for unsecured corporate borrowing. The downward-sloping term structure across commercial paper maturities, from 4.75% for 30-day paper to 4.62% for 90-day paper, indicates market expectations for declining short-term rates.
The architecture of Commercial Paper and Short-Term Funding Rates in the US 2025 illustrates the sophisticated nature of modern money markets. The federal funds effective rate represents the interest rate that depository institutions charge each other for overnight loans, serving as the foundational benchmark for all short-term rates. The SOFR (Secured Overnight Financing Rate) at 4.30% has established itself as a reliable alternative to the discontinued LIBOR, providing transparency in repo market transactions. The prime rate at 7.50% maintains its traditional 300 basis point spread above the federal funds rate, serving as the base rate for most consumer and commercial lending products. This rate structure demonstrates the Federal Reserve’s successful implementation of monetary policy through multiple transmission channels.
Banking and Consumer Interest Rates in the US 2025
| Product Type | National Average (%) | Online Banks (%) | Credit Unions (%) | Community Banks (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Savings Accounts | 0.47 | 4.25 | 2.85 | 2.15 |
| 1-Year CD | 4.15 | 4.85 | 4.65 | 4.45 |
| 5-Year CD | 3.95 | 4.65 | 4.55 | 4.25 |
| 30-Year Mortgage | 6.81 | 6.55 | 6.35 | 6.65 |
| 15-Year Mortgage | 6.18 | 5.95 | 5.85 | 6.05 |
| Auto Loans (New) | 7.35 | 6.95 | 6.25 | 7.15 |
| Personal Loans | 12.25 | 10.85 | 9.95 | 11.75 |
| Credit Cards | 21.65 | 18.95 | 13.85 | 20.45 |
The Banking and Consumer Interest Rates in the US 2025 environment showcases significant variation across different types of financial institutions, reflecting competitive dynamics and operational differences. Online banks continue to offer the most competitive deposit rates, with savings accounts yielding 4.25% compared to the national average of just 0.47%. This substantial differential demonstrates the ongoing digital transformation in banking and the cost advantages that online institutions can pass through to consumers. Credit unions maintain their traditional advantage in consumer lending, offering 30-year mortgages at 6.35% and credit cards at 13.85%, significantly below market averages.
The mortgage market within Banking and Consumer Interest Rates in the US 2025 reflects the impact of elevated Federal Reserve policy rates on long-term borrowing costs. The national average for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages at 6.81% represents a substantial increase from the ultra-low rate environment of recent years, contributing to reduced housing affordability and transaction volume. Certificate of deposit rates have responded positively to the higher rate environment, with 1-year CDs offering competitive yields around 4.15% nationally, providing savers with attractive risk-free returns for the first time in over a decade. The stark difference in credit card rates between credit unions at 13.85% and traditional banks averaging over 21% highlights the importance of institutional choice for consumers managing debt obligations.
Corporate Bond Market Yields in the US 2025
| Credit Rating | Average Yield (%) | Spread vs Treasury (bps) | YTD Issuance Volume ($B) | Default Rate (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAA Corporate | 4.75 | 45 | 142.8 | 0.02 |
| AA Corporate | 5.15 | 85 | 298.5 | 0.05 |
| A Corporate | 5.45 | 115 | 485.2 | 0.12 |
| BBB Corporate | 5.85 | 155 | 728.6 | 0.25 |
| BB High Yield | 8.25 | 395 | 165.4 | 1.85 |
| B High Yield | 9.85 | 555 | 98.7 | 3.45 |
| CCC High Yield | 13.25 | 885 | 28.9 | 8.75 |
| Municipal AAA | 3.65 | -65 | 215.8 | 0.01 |
The Corporate Bond Market Yields in the US 2025 demonstrate robust credit differentiation and healthy investor appetite across all rating categories. Investment-grade corporate bonds continue to attract significant institutional interest, with BBB-rated securities leading issuance volumes at $728.6 billion year-to-date, reflecting corporate America’s ongoing financing needs. The credit spreads across rating categories show rational risk pricing, with AAA-rated corporate debt trading at just 45 basis points above comparable Treasury securities, while BBB-rated bonds require a 155 basis point premium. This spread structure indicates healthy credit market functioning and appropriate compensation for default risk.
The high-yield segment of the Corporate Bond Market Yields in the US 2025 reflects elevated risk premiums as investors demand substantial compensation for credit risk. BB-rated bonds, representing the highest quality within the high-yield universe, trade at 8.25% yields with 395 basis points of spread above Treasuries. Lower-rated categories show exponentially higher risk premiums, with CCC-rated bonds requiring 13.25% yields and spreads approaching 900 basis points. Default rates remain manageable across investment-grade categories but show meaningful increases in high-yield segments, with CCC-rated bonds experiencing 8.75% default rates. Municipal bond markets continue to provide tax-advantaged investment alternatives, with AAA-rated municipal securities yielding 3.65%, effectively trading below Treasury yields when considering their tax-exempt status for high-income investors.
Inflation-Indexed Securities Performance in the US 2025
| TIPS Maturity | Real Yield (%) | Breakeven Rate (%) | Nominal Equivalent (%) | Trading Volume ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Year TIPS | 1.95 | 2.25 | 4.20 | 2,845 |
| 10-Year TIPS | 2.15 | 2.35 | 4.50 | 4,280 |
| 20-Year TIPS | 2.25 | 2.45 | 4.70 | 1,650 |
| 30-Year TIPS | 2.35 | 2.50 | 4.85 | 985 |
| I-Bonds (Current) | 1.30 | 2.68 | 3.98 | N/A |
| TIPS Aggregate | 2.18 | 2.38 | 4.56 | 9,760 |
| Inflation Swaps 5Y | N/A | 2.28 | N/A | 1,245 |
| Inflation Swaps 10Y | N/A | 2.38 | N/A | 2,150 |
The Inflation-Indexed Securities Performance in the US 2025 market provides critical insights into long-term inflation expectations and real interest rate dynamics. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) have demonstrated strong investor demand, with real yields ranging from 1.95% for 5-year TIPS to 2.35% for 30-year TIPS, indicating meaningful real returns above inflation expectations. The breakeven inflation rates across the TIPS curve hover around 2.25% to 2.50%, suggesting market confidence that the Federal Reserve will achieve its 2% inflation target over the long term. Trading volumes in TIPS markets have remained robust, with 10-year TIPS leading activity at $4.28 billion in daily average volume.
The I-Bond program continues to serve retail investors within the Inflation-Indexed Securities Performance in the US 2025 landscape, offering a composite rate of 3.98% for bonds issued in the current period. This rate combines a fixed component of 1.30% with an inflation adjustment of 2.68%, providing individual investors with direct inflation protection for savings up to annual purchase limits. The TIPS aggregate performance shows real yields of 2.18% with breakeven rates of 2.38%, reflecting sophisticated market pricing of inflation expectations. Inflation swap markets provide additional benchmarks for institutional investors, with 5-year and 10-year inflation swaps trading at levels consistent with TIPS breakeven rates, demonstrating market integration and efficient price discovery across different inflation-linked instruments.
Mortgage Market Dynamics in the US 2025
| Loan Product | Current Rate (%) | Rate Range (%) | Origination Volume Change (%) | Market Share (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Conforming | 6.81 | 6.35 – 7.25 | -18.5 | 67.2 |
| 15-Year Conforming | 6.18 | 5.85 – 6.65 | -12.8 | 15.3 |
| 5/1 ARM | 6.15 | 5.65 – 6.65 | +32.6 | 8.9 |
| FHA 30-Year | 6.65 | 6.15 – 7.15 | -15.2 | 12.8 |
| VA 30-Year | 6.45 | 5.95 – 6.95 | -8.5 | 11.5 |
| USDA Rural | 6.55 | 6.05 – 7.05 | -22.3 | 2.1 |
| Jumbo 30-Year | 6.95 | 6.45 – 7.45 | -25.8 | 18.6 |
| Interest-Only | 7.25 | 6.75 – 7.75 | +15.4 | 1.8 |
The Mortgage Market Dynamics in the US 2025 reflect the significant impact of elevated interest rates on housing finance and borrower behavior. Conventional 30-year fixed-rate mortgages, representing the largest segment at 67.2% market share, currently average 6.81% with most lenders offering rates between 6.35% and 7.25%. This rate level has contributed to an 18.5% decline in origination volumes as potential homebuyers face affordability challenges compared to the ultra-low rate environment of previous years. Adjustable-rate mortgages have experienced a remarkable 32.6% increase in popularity as borrowers seek lower initial payments, hoping for future rate declines that would reduce their long-term borrowing costs.
Government-backed mortgage programs within Mortgage Market Dynamics in the US 2025 continue to provide important alternatives for qualified borrowers. FHA loans at 6.65% average rates maintain significant market presence with 12.8% share, though origination volumes have declined 15.2% year-over-year. VA loans offer competitive rates at 6.45% with the smallest volume decline of just 8.5%, reflecting the program’s unique benefits for military borrowers including no down payment requirements and no private mortgage insurance. Jumbo mortgages for high-value properties command premium rates at 6.95% and have experienced the steepest volume declines at 25.8%, indicating particular sensitivity to rate increases in luxury housing markets. The emergence of interest-only loan products with 15.4% volume growth suggests some borrowers are seeking creative financing solutions to manage monthly payment obligations in the current rate environment.
International Interest Rate Comparisons in the US 2025
| Country | Policy Rate (%) | 10-Year Bond Yield (%) | Inflation Rate (%) | Real Policy Rate (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| United States | 4.50 | 4.43 | 2.85 | 1.65 |
| European Union | 3.75 | 2.95 | 2.12 | 1.63 |
| United Kingdom | 5.25 | 4.35 | 3.45 | 1.80 |
| Japan | 0.50 | 1.15 | 1.85 | -1.35 |
| Canada | 4.25 | 3.85 | 2.65 | 1.60 |
| Australia | 4.35 | 4.25 | 3.15 | 1.20 |
| Switzerland | 1.75 | 0.95 | 1.25 | 0.50 |
| Norway | 4.50 | 3.45 | 2.95 | 1.55 |
The International Interest Rate Comparisons in the US 2025 reveal the relative positioning of American monetary policy within the global economic landscape. The US federal funds rate at 4.50% places America among the more hawkish developed economies, matched only by Norway and exceeded by the United Kingdom at 5.25%. This positioning reflects the Federal Reserve’s ongoing commitment to maintaining restrictive monetary policy until inflation returns sustainably to target levels. The real policy rate in the United States at 1.65% demonstrates meaningful restrictive conditions, similar to other major developed economies that are also working to control inflationary pressures.
The International Interest Rate Comparisons in the US 2025 highlight significant divergences in monetary policy approaches across major economies. Japan maintains its uniquely accommodative stance with policy rates at just 0.50% and negative real rates, reflecting that country’s decades-long struggle with deflationary pressures. The European Union’s 3.75% policy rate and 10-year bond yield of 2.95% indicate more modest tightening compared to the US and UK, reflecting different inflation dynamics and economic conditions. Switzerland’s historically low rates at 1.75% policy and 0.95% long-term yields continue to reflect that nation’s safe-haven status and unique economic position. These international variations in Interest Rate Statistics 2025 demonstrate how different economic conditions, inflation experiences, and central bank mandates lead to diverse monetary policy approaches across the global financial system.
Future Outlook
The Interest Rate Statistics in the US 2025 trajectory for the remainder of the year appears increasingly influenced by evolving labor market conditions and inflation data. With markets pricing in an 87% probability of a rate cut at the September Federal Reserve meeting and approximately 2.5 total cuts across the year’s remaining meetings, expectations have shifted meaningfully toward monetary policy easing. Federal Reserve officials, including potential chair candidates, have signaled openness to more substantial rate adjustments if labor market conditions deteriorate further, suggesting flexibility in the pace and magnitude of future policy changes. Treasury yields are likely to remain sensitive to economic data releases and Federal Reserve communications, with particular focus on employment reports, inflation measures, and consumer spending patterns that could influence policy timing.
Looking beyond 2025, the Interest Rate Statistics in the US 2025 environment suggests a gradual transition toward more neutral monetary policy settings. The Federal Reserve’s longer-term neutral rate estimates, combined with structural economic changes including demographic transitions, productivity enhancements, and evolving global capital flows, will ultimately determine the equilibrium level for policy rates. Commercial lending rates, mortgage costs, and consumer borrowing expenses are expected to follow Federal Reserve policy direction, though credit spreads may fluctuate based on economic growth prospects and financial stability considerations. The continued evolution of benchmark rates, particularly SOFR and other post-LIBOR reference rates, will remain crucial for financial market functioning and the development of new lending products across all economic sectors. Market participants should expect continued volatility as monetary policy normalizes and economic conditions adjust to the new interest rate environment.
Disclaimer: The data research report we present here is based on information found from various sources. We are not liable for any financial loss, errors, or damages of any kind that may result from the use of the information herein. We acknowledge that though we try to report accurately, we cannot verify the absolute facts of everything that has been represented.
