Industrial Production in the US 2026
The United States industrial sector has entered 2026 on a notably strong footing, offering a compelling picture of an economy that continues to push through persistent headwinds. Industrial production — the measure of output from manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities — posted back-to-back gains heading into the new year, capping a period of recovery that many analysts had been watching closely. According to the Federal Reserve’s G.17 Statistical Release, total industrial output stood at 102.3 (Index, 2017=100) in December 2025, and surged further in January 2026, recording a month-over-month gain of 0.7 percent — the strongest single-month performance since February 2025. The data, published on February 18, 2026, confirmed that the US industrial engine is humming at a pace that is beating most market forecasts heading into the first quarter.
What makes the 2026 industrial production data particularly significant is not just the headline number but the breadth of the gains across major industry groups. Manufacturing — the largest component of the industrial production index — led the charge with a 0.6 percent advance in January 2026, with widespread contributions from multiple sub-sectors. Utilities output added 2.1 percent to the mix, reflecting robust demand for energy during winter months. Even as mining dipped slightly by 0.2 percent in January, the sector remains well above its year-earlier levels. Capacity utilization climbed to 76.2 percent for January 2026, still trailing its long-run historical average of 79.5 percent (1972–2025), but trending firmly in the right direction after a subdued mid-2025 performance. These numbers collectively signal that US industrial production in 2026 is positioned as one of the more resilient stories in the broader economic landscape.
Interesting Facts & Key Statistics: Industrial Production in the US 2026
| Fact / Indicator | Data / Value |
|---|---|
| Total IP Index (January 2026) | ~102.9 (Index, 2017=100), up 0.7% MoM |
| Total IP Index (December 2025) | 102.3 (Index, 2017=100) |
| Year-over-Year IP Growth (January 2026) | 2.3 percent above January 2025 |
| Year-over-Year IP Growth (December 2025) | 2.0 percent above December 2024 |
| Manufacturing Output Growth (January 2026) | +0.6 percent month-over-month |
| Manufacturing Output Growth (December 2025) | +0.2 percent month-over-month |
| Utilities Output Growth (January 2026) | +2.1 percent month-over-month |
| Utilities Output Growth (December 2025) | +2.6 percent month-over-month |
| Mining Output Change (January 2026) | -0.2 percent month-over-month |
| Mining Output Change (December 2025) | -0.7 percent month-over-month |
| Capacity Utilization – Total Industry (January 2026) | 76.2 percent |
| Capacity Utilization – Total Industry (December 2025) | 76.3 percent |
| Long-Run Average Capacity Utilization (1972–2025) | 79.5 percent |
| Gap Below Long-Run Average (January 2026) | 3.2 percentage points |
| Manufacturing Capacity Utilization (January 2026) | 75.6 percent |
| Mining Capacity Utilization (January 2026) | 84.4 percent |
| Utilities Capacity Utilization (January 2026) | 72.9 percent |
| IP Q4 2025 Annual Rate of Growth | 0.7 percent (annualized) |
| Durable Goods Output YoY (December 2025) | +3.1 percent above year-earlier |
| Nondurable Goods Output YoY (December 2025) | +1.0 percent above year-earlier |
| Business Equipment Output (December 2025) | +10.1 percent year-over-year |
| Consumer Goods Output (December 2025) | +0.7 percent year-over-year |
| Primary Metals Output (December 2025) | +2.4 percent month-over-month |
| Natural Gas Utilities Index (December 2025) | +12.0 percent month-over-month |
| Mining Output YoY (December 2025) | +1.7 percent above year-earlier |
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, G.17 Statistical Release — Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization, released February 18, 2026 (January 2026 data) and January 16, 2026 (December 2025 data). Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED).
The table above captures what is arguably the most striking data story to open 2026 in US industrial production: the January surge of 0.7 percent exceeded market forecasts of 0.4 percent by a substantial margin, and the year-over-year advance of 2.3 percent marks one of the strongest annual comparisons seen in recent months. Particularly eye-catching is the business equipment category, which posted a remarkable 10.1 percent year-over-year gain as of December 2025, reflecting aggressive capital investment across sectors like semiconductors, AI-hardware manufacturing, and industrial automation. The natural gas utilities sub-index jumped 12.0 percent in a single month in December 2025, underscoring how seasonal demand spikes can significantly move that particular component.
What the table also quietly reveals is the persistent gap between where US industrial capacity utilization stands today and where it historically trends. With total capacity utilization at 76.2 percent in January 2026 — sitting 3.2 percentage points below the long-run average of 79.5 percent — there is a notable amount of slack still present in the system. This gap suggests that while production has been growing, the underlying productive capacity of US industry has been expanding even faster, meaning there is room to absorb further demand without immediately straining supply chains or triggering bottlenecks. That dynamic is critically important context for understanding not just where US industry stands today, but where it has the potential to go in the months ahead.
Total Industrial Production Index in the US 2026
| Month / Period | IP Index (2017=100) | Month-over-Month Change | Year-over-Year Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| July 2025 | 101.9 | +0.4% | — |
| August 2025 | 101.6 | -0.3% | — |
| September 2025 | 101.8 | +0.2% | +1.6% |
| October 2025 | 101.5 | -0.3% | — |
| November 2025 | 102.0 | +0.4% | — |
| December 2025 | 102.3 | +0.4% | +2.0% |
| January 2026 | ~102.9 (est.) | +0.7% | +2.3% |
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US), G.17 Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization, January 16, 2026 and February 18, 2026. Seasonally adjusted, Index 2017=100. https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/
Tracing the total industrial production index in the US across the second half of 2025 into 2026 reveals a pattern that is frankly more nuanced than most headline snapshots suggest. The index oscillated in a fairly tight band — between 101.5 and 102.3 — from July through December 2025, never decisively breaking out, but also never suffering a meaningful pullback. Month-over-month changes were modest, ranging from a low of -0.3 percent in August and October to a high of +0.4 percent in July, November, and December. This kind of measured, grinding recovery is actually characteristic of an industrial sector working its way through inventory adjustments and mixed demand signals. The fact that every single month-over-month change, even the negative ones, remained within a tight corridor suggests underlying resilience.
The January 2026 reading of +0.7 percent then stands out against this backdrop as genuinely meaningful. It was not simply a bounce from a low base — December 2025 itself had come in at 102.3, the highest level of the second half of 2025. January’s acceleration on top of that already solid platform, and against market expectations of just +0.4 percent, points to something more substantive: a broadening of industrial momentum. The year-over-year figure of +2.3 percent for January 2026 is the strongest annual comparison since mid-2025, when the index was sitting above 104 for a brief period. These trend lines suggest the US industrial production index in 2026 is recovering trajectory after the softness seen in the autumn of 2025.
Manufacturing Output in the US 2026
| Indicator | December 2025 | January 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Manufacturing IP Index (NAICS) | 97.4 | est. ~98.0 |
| Month-over-Month Change | +0.2% | +0.6% |
| Durable Goods Output Change (MoM) | +0.1% | Broad-based gains |
| Nondurable Goods Output Change (MoM) | +0.3% | Broad-based gains |
| Primary Metals (MoM, Dec) | +2.4% | — |
| Electrical Equipment & Appliances (MoM, Dec) | +1.7% | — |
| Aerospace & Misc. Transport (MoM, Dec) | +1.5% | — |
| Motor Vehicles & Parts (MoM, Dec) | Decline >1% | — |
| Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products (MoM, Dec) | Increase | — |
| Petroleum & Coal Products (MoM, Dec) | Increase | — |
| Durable Goods YoY (December 2025) | +3.1% | — |
| Nondurable Goods YoY (December 2025) | +1.0% | — |
| Manufacturing Capacity Utilization (Dec 2025) | 75.6% | 75.6% (Jan 2026, revised) |
| Mfg. Long-Run Average Utilization | 78.2% | 78.2% |
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, G.17 Statistical Release, January 16, 2026 and February 18, 2026. FRED Series: IPMAN. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPMAN
Manufacturing output in the US in 2026 is coming off a December 2025 performance that, while modest at +0.2 percent month-over-month, contained some genuinely impressive sub-sector results that deserve attention. Primary metals surged 2.4 percent in December — a category that is deeply sensitive to broader capital investment cycles and infrastructure activity. Electrical equipment, appliances, and components gained 1.7 percent, a figure consistent with accelerating demand from the clean energy transition and the buildout of data center infrastructure. Aerospace and miscellaneous transportation equipment added 1.5 percent, reflecting a commercial aviation industry still working through a post-pandemic backlog of aircraft orders. These gains were partially offset by weakness in motor vehicles and parts, wood products, and nonmetallic mineral products, each of which declined more than 1 percent in December. The nondurable side held together better, with food, beverage, tobacco, petroleum, and plastics all contributing positive readings.
January 2026 then delivered what the manufacturing sector arguably needed to shake off any lingering concerns about momentum: a 0.6 percent advance described by Federal Reserve data as featuring “widespread gains across industry groups.” That kind of breadth is qualitatively different from a result driven by one or two volatile sub-sectors. Manufacturing capacity utilization holding at 75.6 percent in January 2026 — unchanged from December despite rising output — indicates that capacity itself is also expanding, which is consistent with the ongoing investment in US manufacturing infrastructure. Still, the 2.6 percentage point gap below the long-run manufacturing utilization average of 78.2 percent tells us that the sector has meaningful runway before any supply constraints become a concern.
Capacity Utilization by Sector in the US 2026
| Sector | Nov 2025 | Dec 2025 | Jan 2026 | Long-Run Avg (1972–2025) | Gap vs. LR Avg (Jan 2026) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Industry | 76.1% | 76.3% | 76.2% | 79.5% | -3.2 pp |
| Manufacturing | 75.6% | 75.6% | 75.6% (revised) | 78.2% | -2.6 pp |
| Mining | 86.2% | 85.7% | 84.4% | 85.2% | -0.8 pp |
| Utilities | 70.7% | 72.3% | 72.9% | 84.3% | -11.4 pp |
| Crude Stage | 83.8% | 83.4% | — | 84.6% | — |
| Primary & Semifinished | 75.6% | 75.9% | — | 80.2% | — |
| Finished Goods | 73.7% | 74.0% | — | 76.7% | — |
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, G.17 Statistical Release, February 18, 2026 (January 2026 data) and January 16, 2026 (December 2025 data).
The capacity utilization breakdown by sector in the US in 2026 is one of the most structurally revealing datasets in the entire G.17 release, and the numbers tell notably different stories depending on which sector you are examining. Mining capacity utilization at 84.4 percent in January 2026, while down slightly from December’s 85.7 percent, still sits closest to its long-run average of 85.2 percent among all major sectors — a gap of just -0.8 percentage points. That proximity to historical norms reflects a US oil and gas sector that has been operating at a fairly steady, disciplined production clip. Total industry utilization at 76.2 percent remains 3.2 percentage points below the long-run average, consistent with broader economic slack that the Federal Reserve has been closely monitoring in its monetary policy deliberations.
The standout anomaly in the table is utilities capacity utilization at 72.9 percent in January 2026 — a sector whose long-run average is 84.3 percent, creating a staggering gap of approximately 11.4 percentage points. This persistent underutilization in utilities reflects structural changes in the energy landscape, including the rapid growth of renewable energy capacity that has added installed capacity faster than demand has grown. The finished goods utilization rate at 74.0 percent in December 2025, against a long-run average of 76.7 percent, also signals that consumer-facing production has room to grow without pressuring existing plant and equipment. These capacity gaps are not uniformly negative — they provide the industrial economy with an important buffer, allowing output to be ramped up in response to demand without immediately encountering inflationary supply-side constraints.
Market Group Production in the US 2026
| Market Group | IP Index (Dec 2025) | MoM Change (Dec) | Year-over-Year Change (Dec ’24 to Dec ’25) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Final Products | 98.7 | +0.8% | +2.9% |
| Consumer Goods | 98.8 | +0.7% | +0.7% |
| Consumer Nondurables | Higher sub-index | +1.1% | — |
| Consumer Durables | Lower sub-index | -0.7% | — |
| Business Equipment | 95.7 | +0.8% | +10.1% |
| Nonindustrial Supplies | 98.1 | -0.1% | +0.7% |
| Construction Supplies | 99.7 | -0.3% | +1.3% |
| Materials | 107.2 | +0.2% | +1.7% |
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, G.17 Statistical Release, January 16, 2026. Table 1 — Industrial Production: Market and Industry Groups.
Breaking US industrial production in 2026 down by market group provides a powerful lens through which to understand where demand is actually coming from and which end-markets are driving the recovery. The most striking entry in this table is business equipment, which posted a year-over-year gain of +10.1 percent from December 2024 to December 2025 — a figure that dwarfs all other market group annual comparisons by a wide margin. This double-digit growth in business equipment output is a direct reflection of the massive investment cycle in AI hardware, semiconductor fabrication equipment, data center buildout, and advanced manufacturing automation that has been accelerating across the US economy. The sub-index level of 95.7 still sits below the 2017 baseline of 100, but the trajectory is unmistakably upward and at a rate that signals genuine structural demand rather than a temporary bounce.
Consumer goods output at 98.8 in December 2025 with a modest 0.7 percent year-over-year gain reflects a consumer sector that is holding steady but not dramatically accelerating. Within that category, the 1.1 percent monthly gain in nondurables — driven by food, household supplies, and personal care products — outperformed the 0.7 percent monthly decline in durables such as home appliances and recreational vehicles. This pattern is consistent with a consumer who continues to prioritize everyday essentials and experiences while pulling back modestly on big-ticket discretionary goods. The materials index at 107.2 — the highest sub-index level in the table and 1.7 percent above year-earlier levels — underscores continued industrial demand for raw inputs, pointing to healthy pipeline activity in the downstream manufacturing and construction sectors that these materials ultimately feed into.
Mining Sector Industrial Production in the US 2026
| Indicator | Sep 2025 | Oct 2025 | Nov 2025 | Dec 2025 | Jan 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mining IP Index (2017=100) | 121.4 | 120.6 | 122.7 | 121.9 | ~121.7 (est.) |
| Month-over-Month Change | -0.7% | -0.7% | +1.7% | -0.7% | -0.2% |
| Year-over-Year Change (Dec 2025) | — | — | — | +1.7% | — |
| Mining Capacity Utilization (Dec 2025) | — | — | — | 85.7% | 84.4% |
| Mining Long-Run Average Utilization | — | — | — | 85.2% | 85.2% |
| Gap vs. Long-Run Average (Jan 2026) | — | — | — | +0.5 pp above | -0.8 pp below |
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, G.17 Statistical Release, February 18, 2026 and January 16, 2026.
The mining sector’s industrial production performance in the US heading into 2026 tells a story of volatility within a broadly stable band. The mining index has oscillated between 120.6 and 122.7 over the final five months of 2025, with gains and losses often reversing in alternating months — a pattern driven in part by the inherent variability of oil and gas well output, metallic mineral extraction, and coal production. The November 2025 jump of 1.7 percent was particularly notable, pushing the index to its highest point since mid-year, before December reversed course with another 0.7 percent decline. Despite this month-to-month volatility, the year-over-year comparison remains solidly positive, with December 2025 mining output running 1.7 percent above December 2024 levels. January 2026’s -0.2 percent reading represents a notably smaller decline than the -0.7 percent drops seen in both October and December 2025, suggesting the sector may be stabilizing.
Mining capacity utilization at 85.7 percent in December 2025 actually placed the sector 0.5 percentage points above its long-run average of 85.2 percent — making mining the only major industrial sector operating at or above historical norms. This above-average utilization is a reflection of the discipline that US oil and gas producers have maintained in managing their production relative to their installed capacity base, a posture shaped by years of boom-bust cycles and the influence of institutional investors pushing for capital returns over growth-at-all-costs strategies. The January 2026 slip to 84.4 percent moved mining back just slightly below the long-run average, but the sector remains in a fundamentally healthier utilization position compared to manufacturing and utilities.
Utilities Industrial Production in the US 2026
| Indicator | Sep 2025 | Oct 2025 | Nov 2025 | Dec 2025 | Jan 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Utilities IP Index (2017=100) | 107.7 | 110.0 | 109.7 | 112.5 | est. ~114.9 |
| Month-over-Month Change | +1.1% | +2.1% | -0.3% | +2.6% | +2.1% |
| Natural Gas Sub-Index (MoM, Dec 2025) | — | — | — | +12.0% | — |
| Utilities Capacity Utilization (Dec 2025) | — | — | — | 72.3% | 72.9% |
| Utilities Long-Run Average Utilization | — | — | — | 84.3% | 84.3% |
| Year-over-Year Change (Dec 2025) | — | — | — | +2.3% | — |
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, G.17 Statistical Release, February 18, 2026 and January 16, 2026.
The utilities sector’s industrial production trajectory in the US across late 2025 and into 2026 is marked by some of the most dramatic month-over-month swings of any major sub-component in the G.17 release. The sector posted a 2.6 percent gain in December 2025 — largely driven by a stunning 12.0 percent single-month jump in the natural gas utilities sub-index — and then followed that with another 2.1 percent advance in January 2026. These back-to-back gains pushed the utilities IP index to its highest readings of the second half of 2025, with the December 2025 reading of 112.5 representing a significant step up from the 107.7 level seen in September. The obvious driver behind these moves is seasonal heating demand during the winter months, which tends to pull natural gas consumption sharply higher in November through February and can dramatically influence the utilities component of the broader industrial production index.
Despite these strong recent output gains, utilities capacity utilization at 72.9 percent in January 2026 remains extraordinarily low relative to its long-run average of 84.3 percent — a gap of more than 11 percentage points. This persistent underutilization is not a sign of weakness in demand; rather, it reflects the structural transformation of the US electricity grid, where substantial renewable energy capacity — solar, wind, battery storage — has been added at a pace that has outrun load growth. Installed capacity has expanded so significantly in recent years that even healthy output levels result in relatively low utilization rates. For investors and policymakers tracking the US energy sector industrial production data in 2026, this gap is a crucial piece of context: the grid is not strained, there is ample headroom, and the ongoing energy transition is visibly reshaping what “normal” looks like for utilities capacity utilization in America.
Disclaimer: The data research report we present here is based on information found from various sources. We are not liable for any financial loss, errors, or damages of any kind that may result from the use of the information herein. We acknowledge that though we try to report accurately, we cannot verify the absolute facts of everything that has been represented.
