Diesel Supply in the US is tight in 2026: distillate stocks sit about 13% below the five-year average, and retail diesel hit a record near $6.53 a gallon in September. On October 9, 2026, the Treasury issued General License 135 allowing Russian diesel imports through April 7, 2027, and President Trump cited up to 4.8 million tons of supply.
Diesel Supply 2026 – Introduction
Diesel Supply in the US is the main energy story of fall 2026. Retail diesel averaged $6.29 a gallon in September, the highest nominal price in the EIA series, which began in 1994. A year ago it cost about $3.70. The drivers are global. Refining output is down in Russia, China and the Middle East, and the Iran war that began on February 28, 2026 has kept Gulf oil flows constrained. US refiners are running at about 97% of capacity, and exports keep draining stocks.
On October 9, 2026, Washington changed course on Russia. The Office of Foreign Assets Control issued General License 135, which authorizes Russian diesel imports, including into the US, through April 7, 2027. President Trump said Russia would send more than 300,000 tons at once and up to 4.8 million tons in all. This report collects the latest verified numbers on prices, inventories, refining, exports and the Russian licence. Midterm elections are on November 3, 2026, so the numbers carry political weight.
Interesting Facts About Diesel Supply in the US 2026
DIESEL STRESS GAUGES, SEPTEMBER-OCTOBER 2026 (1 block = 2 percentage points)
Refinery utilization (Sept 11) | [[B:48]] 97%
Diesel price above pre-war level | [[B:37]] 74%
East Coast stocks below average | [[B:16]] 32%
US stocks below five-year average | [[B:7]] 13%
| Fact | 2026 Data |
|---|---|
| Record US retail diesel price (week of Sept 21) | About $6.53 per gallon |
| EIA average diesel price, September 2026 | $6.29 per gallon |
| US diesel price a year earlier | About $3.70 per gallon |
| US distillate stocks (week of Oct 2) | 105.1 million barrels |
| US stocks versus five-year average | About 13% below |
| East Coast distillate stocks versus average (Sept) | 32% below |
| US distillate production, January-August average | 5.1 million barrels per day |
| Russian diesel licence (GL 135) expires | April 7, 2027 |
| Russian volume cited by President Trump | 4.8 million tons |
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook (October 6, 2026) and Today in Energy (September 18, 2026); Office of Foreign Assets Control (October 9, 2026); AAA.
The table shows a market squeezed from every side. Retail diesel sits $2.59 above its year-ago level, a jump of about 70%. Stocks of 105.1 million barrels are about 13% below the five-year average, and the East Coast is far tighter at 32% below. Production is strong at 5.1 million barrels a day, the most since 2019, so the shortfall comes from demand and exports, not from weak refining.
The policy dates matter as much as the volumes. General License 135 runs only until April 7, 2027. The 4.8 million tons cited by the President are a ceiling, and the largest tranche depends on Russian refinery repairs. The Energy Information Administration’s own forecast, finished on October 1, does not include the licence, so its $5.19 average for 2026 may shift in the next outlook on November 10.
Diesel Prices in the US 2026: Record Highs and Forecast
US AVERAGE RETAIL DIESEL PRICE (1 block = $0.25 per gallon)
Pre-war (Feb 2026) | [[B:15]] $3.76
Apr 1, 2026 | [[B:22]] $5.45
Jun 22, 2026 | [[B:19]] $4.83
Sep 14, 2026 | [[B:25]] $6.29
Week of Sep 21, 2026 | [[B:26]] $6.53
Oct 9, 2026 | [[B:25]] $6.28
| Date | US Average Diesel Price | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Pre-war (February 2026) | $3.76 per gallon | Level before the Iran war |
| April 1, 2026 | $5.45 per gallon | First spring spike |
| June 22, 2026 | $4.83 per gallon | Relief after the June ceasefire framework |
| September 14, 2026 | $6.29 per gallon | Record in nominal terms at the time |
| Week of September 21, 2026 | $6.53 per gallon | All-time nominal high |
| October 9, 2026 | $6.28 per gallon | Slight pullback |
| EIA forecast, 2026 average | $5.19 per gallon | Raised from $5.07 |
| EIA forecast, 2027 average | $4.49 per gallon | Raised from $4.40 |
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update and Short-Term Energy Outlook (October 6, 2026); AAA; freight industry reports citing EIA data.
Prices climbed in two waves. Diesel rose from $3.76 before the war to $5.45 by April 1, eased to $4.83 by June 22, then surged to $6.29 on September 14. The EIA said that level was the highest in its series, in nominal terms, since 1994. The peak near $6.53 came in the week of September 21, about 74% above the pre-war price. By October 9, diesel had slipped to $6.28.
The forecast points to relief, but slowly. The EIA now expects the 2026 average at $5.19, up 2.4% from its September forecast, and $4.49 in 2027, up 2.0%. The agency blames high crude prices and wide crack spreads, the gap between wholesale diesel and crude. A $4.49 average in 2027 would still sit about 19% above last year’s pump price.
US Distillate Inventories in 2026: How Low Are Diesel Stocks?
US DISTILLATE STOCKS VERSUS NORMAL
US total, Sept 11-Oct 2 | [[B:7]] about 13%
East Coast, September | [[B:16]] 32%
East Coast, winter view | [[B:10]] about 20%
| Metric | 2026 Figure |
|---|---|
| US distillate stocks, week ending July 31 | 107.2 million barrels |
| US distillate stocks, week ending September 11 | 107.9 million barrels |
| Shortfall versus five-year average, September 11 | 15.8 million barrels |
| Shortfall as a share of average, September 11 | 13% |
| US distillate stocks, week ending September 25 | 105.2 million barrels |
| US distillate stocks, week ending October 2 | 105.1 million barrels |
| East Coast stocks versus average, September | 32% below |
| East Coast stocks versus average through winter (forecast) | About 20% below |
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Weekly Petroleum Status Report and Short-Term Energy Outlook (October 6, 2026).
National stocks have barely moved all summer. They stood at 107.2 million barrels on July 31, rose to 107.9 million on September 11, and slipped to 105.1 million by the week of October 2. Stocks usually build in summer, so a flat line is a warning sign. On September 11 they were 15.8 million barrels, or 13%, below the five-year average.
The East Coast is the weak spot. Stocks there fell 32% below average in September. The EIA expects a recovery but still sees stocks about 20% below the 2021-2025 average through the winter. It does not expect the region to return near normal until the second half of 2027. Thin stocks leave less room for a refinery outage, a cold snap or a shipping delay.
US Diesel Production and Exports in 2026: Refineries Run Flat Out
US DISTILLATE TRADE, WEEK ENDED JULY 31, 2026
Exports | [[B:19]] 1,884
Imports | [[B:1]] 99
| Metric | 2026 Figure |
|---|---|
| Distillate production, January-August average | 5.1 million barrels per day |
| Rank of that production level | Highest since 2019 |
| Refinery utilization, week ending July 31 | 96.5% |
| Refinery utilization, week ending September 11 | 97% |
| Record distillate exports, week ending July 31 | 1.884 million barrels per day |
| Distillate imports, same week | 99,000 barrels per day |
| Net exports versus five-year range | Near or above the 2021-2025 high since February |
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Today in Energy (September 18, 2026) and Weekly Petroleum Status Report (week ended July 31, 2026).
US refiners are doing their part. Distillate production averaged 5.1 million barrels a day from January to August, the most since 2019. Utilization held at 96.5% in late July and 97% by September 11. Few plants can run harder than that. The strain shows in the export column, where shipments reached a record 1.884 million barrels a day in the week ended July 31.
Imports play almost no role. They ran at just 99,000 barrels a day that week, so the US exported about 19 times more diesel than it brought in. High foreign prices pull barrels out of US ports, and low stocks keep them from refilling. That is why Diesel Supply in the US has not eased even with record output.
Russian Diesel Imports in the US 2026: General License 135 Explained
RUSSIAN DIESEL VOLUMES CITED BY PRESIDENT TRUMP
Immediate (300,000+) | [[B:3]] 0.3M
November | [[B:5]] 0.5M
Shortly afterward | [[B:10]] 1.0M
Conditional on refineries | [[B:30]] 3.0M
| Tranche | Tons Cited | Timing | Estimated Barrels |
|---|---|---|---|
| First | Over 300,000 | Immediately | About 2.2 million |
| Second | 500,000 | November | About 3.7 million |
| Third | 1 million | Shortly afterward | About 7.5 million |
| Fourth | 3 million | Depends on Russian refinery repairs | About 22.4 million |
| Total | 4.8 million | Through licence expiry | About 35.8 million |
Source: Office of the Foreign Assets Control, General License 135 (October 9, 2026); Truth Social statement of President Trump; Energy News Beat; barrel figures are estimates using about 7.46 barrels per metric ton.
The Treasury issued General License 135 on October 9, 2026. It authorizes the sale, delivery, offloading and importation of Russian-origin diesel, including into the US, until April 7, 2027. It does not release debits from accounts of Russia’s central bank, wealth fund or finance ministry. The licence text lists no volumes. The 4.8 million tons come from the President’s statement, and EU and UK sanctions on Russian fuel are unchanged.
The numbers are small against US demand. The first 300,000 tons equal roughly 2.2 million barrels, less than one day of US consumption. All 4.8 million tons would cover under 10 days. The largest piece, 3 million tons, depends on damaged Russian refineries. A 2022 law banning Russian energy imports also remains in force, and lawyers are debating how the licence fits it. For the wider import picture, see our report on US trade deficit by country.
Energy Security and Diesel in the US 2026: Oil Prices, Hormuz and the SPR
BRENT CRUDE PRICE, EIA ESTIMATES AND FORECASTS
2024 | [[B:16]] $81
2025 | [[B:14]] $69
2026 (forecast) | [[B:19]] $96
4Q26 (forecast) | [[B:21]] $105
2027 (forecast) | [[B:17]] $84
| Metric | Figure |
|---|---|
| Brent average, 2024 | $81 per barrel |
| Brent average, 2025 | $69 per barrel |
| Brent forecast, 2026 | $96 per barrel |
| Brent forecast, fourth quarter 2026 | $105 per barrel |
| Brent forecast, 2027 | $84 per barrel |
| Share of world oil normally passing the Strait of Hormuz | About 20% |
| Crude exchanged from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (announced Sept 29) | 40 million barrels |
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook (October 6, 2026); European Central Bank (July 2026).
Crude sets the floor for diesel. The EIA expects Brent to average $96 a barrel in 2026 and $105 in the fourth quarter, $14 above its September forecast. It sees $84 in 2027, still above the $69 of 2025. About 20% of world oil normally moves through the Strait of Hormuz. The agency assumes Gulf flows stay constrained through the fourth quarter, though September shut-in output was the lowest since fighting began.
Washington has tried several levers. The Department of Energy announced exchanges of 40 million barrels of crude from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve on September 29, and the G7 issued an energy security statement on October 2. The EIA says tight diesel markets add demand for crude, because refiners must run more oil to make each barrel of diesel. For the budget side of the conflict, see our report on Iran war cost to the US.
Diesel, Freight and Heating Costs in the US 2026: Who Pays More
ENERGY COST PRESSURE, 2026
Energy CPI, May (year over year) | [[B:12]] 23.5%
Heating oil price vs last winter | [[B:15]] 30%+
Energy CPI, August | [[B:8]] 16%
Heating oil spending increase | [[B:11]] 21%
| Metric | 2026 Figure |
|---|---|
| US consumer inflation, May (year over year) | 4.2% |
| Energy prices, May (year over year) | 23.5% |
| US consumer inflation, August (year over year) | 3.4% |
| Energy prices, August (year over year) | 16% |
| US retail gasoline, September average | $4.35 per gallon |
| Heating oil price versus last winter | More than 30% higher |
| Expected heating oil spending increase this winter | 21% |
| US households that mainly use heating oil | About 3% |
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index (May and August 2026); U.S. Energy Information Administration, Winter Fuels Outlook and Short-Term Energy Outlook (October 2026).
Diesel feeds every freight bill. Headline inflation reached 4.2% in May, a three-year high, with energy up 23.5% from a year earlier. By August inflation had eased to 3.4%, and energy was up 16%. Gasoline averaged $4.35 in September. Truckers, farmers and rail shippers pay the diesel premium first, and stores pass it on later.
Winter adds a second cost. Heating oil is up more than 30% from last winter. Only about 3% of US households heat mainly with oil, but most live in the Northeast, where stocks are thinnest. The EIA expects their spending to rise 21%, softened by a milder winter in that region. Homes that heat with natural gas or propane, about half the country, should spend less than last year.
Diesel Supply in the US FAQ 2026
How tight is Diesel Supply in the US in 2026?
Very tight. Distillate stocks were 105.1 million barrels in the week of October 2, about 13% below the five-year average. East Coast stocks sat 32% below average in September. The EIA expects stocks to stay below normal through the forecast period.
What is the price of diesel in the US today?
Diesel averaged about $6.28 a gallon on October 9, 2026. It peaked near $6.53 in the week of September 21, the highest nominal price on record. A year ago it cost about $3.70.
Why is diesel so expensive in 2026?
Global supplies are short because refining is down in Russia, China and the Middle East. The Iran war that began February 28, 2026 also keeps Gulf flows constrained. High crude prices and wide crack spreads sit on top of that.
Is the US importing Russian diesel in 2026?
Not yet at scale. OFAC’s General License 135 on October 9, 2026 allows Russian diesel imports through April 7, 2027. Deliveries still have to arrive, and the licence lists no volumes.
How much Russian diesel did Trump say will come?
The President cited more than 300,000 tons immediately, 500,000 in November, 1 million shortly after, and up to 3 million more. That adds up to 4.8 million tons, with the last tranche conditional.
Will Russian diesel lower US pump prices?
Probably only a little. The first 300,000 tons cover less than one day of US demand, and 4.8 million tons cover under 10 days. Analysts say it would barely move prices unless more barrels follow.
Are EU and UK sanctions on Russian diesel lifted?
No. The licence changes US sanctions rules only. EU and UK restrictions on Russian fuel are unchanged, and a 2022 US law banning Russian energy imports remains in force.
Where does US diesel come from?
Mostly from US refineries, which produced 5.1 million barrels a day of distillate from January to August. Imports ran at just 99,000 barrels a day in late July. For crude supply, see these Venezuela oil vs US oil production statistics.
How much diesel does the US export?
A record 1.884 million barrels a day in the week ended July 31, 2026. High foreign prices pull US barrels abroad, which keeps domestic stocks low.
What will diesel cost in 2027?
The EIA forecasts a $4.49 average for 2027, down from $5.19 in 2026. The forecast predates the Russian licence and the G7 energy statement.
Will heating oil cost more this winter?
Yes. Heating oil prices are more than 30% above last winter, and spending for heating oil homes should rise about 21%. The EIA expects East Coast stocks to stay about 20% below average through winter.
What is General License 135?
It is a temporary OFAC authorization signed on October 9, 2026. It allows the sale, delivery, offloading and importation of Russian-origin diesel, including into the US, until 12:01 a.m. Eastern time on April 7, 2027.
Disclaimer: The data research report we present here is based on information found from various sources. We are not liable for any financial loss, errors, or damages of any kind that may result from the use of the information herein. We acknowledge that though we try to report accurately, we cannot verify the absolute facts of everything that has been represented.
