Canada Housing Market in 2026: A Two-Speed Country Under Pressure
Canada’s housing market in 2026 is not one market — it is at least four, moving in fundamentally different directions at the same time, held together by a single national average that obscures more than it reveals. The most current data available, from CREA’s May 14, 2026 release, puts the national average home price at $695,412 in April 2026 — up 2.2% from April 2025 on a non-seasonally adjusted basis. That headline looks reassuring until you look underneath it: the MLS® Home Price Index (HPI), which controls for the mix of homes sold and gives a cleaner read on underlying price trends, was down 4.2% year-over-year in April 2026 — and that was actually the smallest year-over-year decline recorded so far in 2026, meaning every prior month of the year was worse. The national average is being pulled upward by a handful of affordable eastern and prairie markets posting gains, while Greater Toronto (–6.6% benchmark YoY) and Greater Vancouver (–6.8%) are in correction mode, dragging the HPI down and leaving buyers in those cities with more negotiating room than at any point since 2020. The year began with a January blizzard stalling the Greater Golden Horseshoe, a tariff shock that raised bond yields and pushed up fixed mortgage rates in February and March, and a spring that arrived tentatively rather than with the force many buyers were waiting for.
The macro backdrop matters enormously here. The Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25% through the spring of 2026 — lower than the painful 5% peak of 2023, but not low enough to unlock the wave of pent-up first-time buyer demand that CREA had been forecasting for the year. The U.S. tariff shock beginning in early 2025 rippled through Canadian business confidence, raised inflation expectations, pushed up fixed mortgage rates in late March and into April, and prompted CREA to downgrade its 2026 housing forecast on April 16, 2026 — now calling for just 474,972 residential sales (up only 1% from 2025) and average price growth of just 1.5% nationally. That downgrade reflects a market where buyers remain in “wait and see” mode, where affordability remains stretched despite price corrections in the most expensive markets, and where the structural tailwinds of population growth have partially deflated after the federal government’s immigration correction stripped out hundreds of thousands of non-permanent residents from Canada’s rental and ownership demand base. The following sections break down the full verified picture — national sales data, price trends by city, inventory, rental markets, and the 2026 forecast — with every figure drawn from primary sources released this month.
Interesting Facts: Canada Housing Sales Statistics 2026
CANADA HOUSING MARKET — VERIFIED SNAPSHOT (APRIL 2026 CREA DATA)
═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
National avg. home price (Apr 2026) ████████████████████ $695,412 (+2.2% YoY)
MLS® HPI (Apr 2026 YoY change) ░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░ –4.2% (smallest decline in 2026)
April sales vs April 2025 ░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░ –4% (NSA)
April sales vs March 2026 (SA) █░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░ +0.7%
Active listings end of April 2026 ████████████████░░░░ 187,647 properties
Months of inventory (Apr 2026) ████████████░░░░░░░░ 5.2 months
CREA 2026 full-year forecast (sales) ████████████████████ 474,972 transactions
Bank of Canada policy rate (2026) ████████░░░░░░░░░░░░ 2.25%
═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
| Fact | Data (Verified — April/May 2026) |
|---|---|
| National average home price (April 2026, NSA) | $695,412 — up 2.2% from April 2025 (CREA, May 14, 2026) |
| National MLS® HPI (April 2026, YoY) | –4.2% — smallest year-over-year decline in 2026 so far |
| MLS® HPI month-over-month (April) | –0.1% — smallest monthly decline since October 2025 |
| April home sales vs March 2026 (seasonally adjusted) | +0.7% |
| April home sales vs April 2025 (not seasonally adjusted) | –4% |
| Q1 2026 cumulative sales vs Q1 2025 | Down 11% (NBC Economics / CREA) |
| Year-to-date sales decline (through Q1 2026) | –7.9% overall (NerdWallet Canada) |
| Active listings end of April 2026 | 187,647 — up 2.2% YoY; 6.1% below long-term average |
| Months of inventory (April 2026) | 5.2 months — near long-term average of 5 months |
| Sales-to-new-listings ratio (April 2026) | 45.6% (long-term average: 54.8%) |
| New listings MoM change (April 2026) | +4.1% — spring listings starting to flow in |
| CREA 2026 full-year forecast (transactions) | 474,972 residential sales (up just 1% from 2025) |
| CREA 2026 forecast — national average price | $688,955 (+1.5% annually) |
| Bank of Canada policy rate (spring 2026) | 2.25% |
| Variable mortgage rate (spring 2026) | ~3.4% |
| National average home price (January 2026) | $652,941 (–2.6% YoY) |
| National average home price (February 2026) | $661,300 (–4.8% YoY) |
| National average home price (March 2026) | $673,084 (+1.4% MoM; –0.8% YoY) |
| National benchmark price (March 2026) | $664,400 (–4.7% YoY; +0.5% MoM — 2nd consecutive monthly gain) |
| Average rent — Canada (February 2026) | $2,030/month — down 2.8% year-over-year |
| National vacancy rate (purpose-built rental, late 2025) | 3.1% — up from 2.2% in 2024 |
Source: CREA — “Canadian Home Sales Edge Higher in April” (May 14, 2026); CREA Quarterly Forecast downgrade (April 16, 2026); WOWA.ca Canada Housing Market Report April 17, 2026; NerdWallet Canada — Canadian Housing Market Update April 2026; Zoocasa — CREA April 2026 Data; nesto.ca Canada Housing Market Outlook March 2026; NBC Economics and Strategy Housing Market Monitor (April 2026); CMHC Housing Market Outlook 2026 (January 2026)
The gap between the national average price (+2.2%) and the MLS HPI (–4.2%) in April 2026 is not a contradiction — it is a composition effect, and it tells you something important about what is actually happening in the market. The HPI controls for what types of homes are sold; the average does not. When more expensive homes transact in a given month relative to less expensive ones, the average rises even if underlying prices are falling. The HPI’s –4.2% reading is the cleaner signal: benchmark prices — for a typical home in a typical neighbourhood — are still meaningfully below year-ago levels in most markets, and the correction that began in the expensive markets of Ontario and BC in mid-2025 has not yet fully unwound. The 5.2 months of inventory nationally keeps the market near the long-term balanced midpoint of 5 months, but that national figure hides enormous regional divergence: Alberta sits below 3 months (seller’s territory) while parts of Ontario’s smaller cities are closer to 6 months or more. The 45.6% sales-to-new-listings ratio — well below the balanced range that starts at 45% but also well below the 54.8% long-run average — signals that supply is accumulating faster than demand is clearing it, consistent with the cautious buyer posture CREA has been flagging since February.
1. Canada Housing Sales Activity 2026 — Month by Month
CANADA MONTHLY HOME SALES TREND (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED, 2025–2026)
════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
Sept 2025 ████████████████████░░░░░░░░░ Strong — mid-year rally peak
Nov 2025 █████████████████░░░░░░░░░░░░ –0.6% MoM; holding pattern
Dec 2025 █████████████████░░░░░░░░░░░░ Flat close to year
Jan 2026 █████████████░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░ –5.8% MoM; winter storm shock
Feb 2026 █████████████░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░ ~flat; tariff anxiety begins
Mar 2026 █████████████░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░ –0.1% MoM; –3.4% vs Mar 2025
Apr 2026 █████████████░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░ +0.7% MoM; –4% vs Apr 2025
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| Month | Sales Activity (SA or NSA noted) | YoY Change | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| July 2025 | Mid-year rally — strong summer | — | Rate cut optimism; pent-up demand |
| September 2025 | Elevated — near 4-year high for month | — | Mid-year momentum |
| November 2025 | –0.6% MoM (SA); 10.7% below Nov 2024 (NSA) | –10.7% NSA | Holding pattern; price concessions to close |
| December 2025 | Flat; balanced market close to year | — | Rate expectations reset |
| January 2026 | –5.8% MoM (SA); 16.2% below Jan 2025 (NSA) | –16.2% NSA | Historic winter storm hit Greater Golden Horseshoe |
| February 2026 | Near flat MoM | –4.8% avg price YoY | Tariff shock raises bond yields; fixed rates jump |
| March 2026 | 35,539 sales (SA) –0.4% MoM; –3.4% vs March 2025 | –3.4% | Tariff anxiety; rates elevated; cautious buyers |
| April 2026 | +0.7% MoM (SA) | –4% NSA vs April 2025 | Spring listings arrive; slow start but stronger finish |
| Q1 2026 cumulative | Down 11% vs Q1 2025 | –11% | Weakest Q1 since 2020 in context |
| YTD 2026 (through Q1) | –7.9% overall | — | 5 provinces with double-digit YoY declines |
| CREA 2026 full-year forecast | 474,972 transactions | +1% from 2025 | Downgraded April 16, 2026 — “muted rebound” |
| CREA 2027 forecast | Higher recovery | Positive | BC and Ontario expected to lead |
Source: CREA May 14, 2026 news release; CREA January 2026 news release (February 18, 2026); CREA November 2025 release (December 15, 2025); NBC Economics Housing Market Monitor April 2026; NerdWallet Canada April 2026 update; WOWA.ca Canada Housing Market Report
The January 2026 plunge of –16.2% below January 2025 was the most dramatic single-month year-over-year decline of the current cycle, and its cause was partly meteorological — a historic winter storm buried the Greater Golden Horseshoe and brought transactions to a near-standstill in Canada’s most active real estate corridor. CREA’s Senior Economist Shaun Cathcart was explicit: the January story was “probably more about a historic winter storm than a downshift in demand.” But February and March showed that even after the weather cleared, tariff-driven bond yield increases and the associated jump in fixed mortgage rates were real factors keeping buyers cautious. The U.S. tariff shock first implemented in February 2025 had been building throughout that year; by late March 2026, inflation from an oil price spike raised the probability of a Bank of Canada rate hike, pushed bond yields higher, and directly impacted the fixed mortgage rates that the majority of Canadian buyers rely on. The April 2026 recovery of +0.7% month-over-month is genuine but modest — CREA Chair Garry Bhaura’s characterisation of “moved in the right direction across the board” captures the tone accurately: directionally positive, but not the robust rebound the market had been primed for entering 2026.
2. Canada Home Prices by Province 2026
HOME PRICE BENCHMARK — YEAR-OVER-YEAR CHANGE BY PROVINCE (March 2026)
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Newfoundland ████████████████████████ +9.3% (strongest gainer)
Saskatchewan ████████████████████░░░░ +6.5%
Quebec ████████████████████░░░░ +5.8% (record benchmark high)
New Brunswick ████████████░░░░░░░░░░░░ +4.6%
Nova Scotia ████████████░░░░░░░░░░░░ +3.6%
PEI ████████░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░ +2.8%
Alberta ░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░ –3.5%
British Col. ░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░ –5.8%
Ontario ░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░ –6.5% (largest decline)
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| Province | Benchmark Price Change (March 2026 YoY) | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Newfoundland & Labrador | +9.3% | Strongest gainer nationally; avg $355,067 (Apr 2026) |
| Saskatchewan | +6.5% | Avg $354,338 (Mar 2026); tight 2.9 months of supply |
| Quebec | +5.8% | Benchmark hit all-time record $549,400 (Mar 2026) — 3rd consecutive monthly record |
| New Brunswick | +4.6% | Atlantic Canada resilience continues |
| Nova Scotia | +3.6% | Benchmark $556,400 (Mar 2026) |
| PEI | +2.8% | After strong 2025; slowing |
| Manitoba | +2.9% | Winnipeg benchmark $389,800 |
| Alberta | –3.5% | Soft YoY but tight supply; most affordable major market |
| British Columbia | –5.8% | Vancouver leads the softness; interior markets firmer |
| Ontario | –6.5% | Largest YoY decline; GTA and Southern Ontario drag |
| National benchmark (March 2026) | –4.7% YoY | But consecutive monthly gains Feb–Mar suggest stabilisation |
| National benchmark (April 2026) | –4.2% YoY | Smallest YoY decline so far in 2026 |
Source: WOWA.ca Canada Housing Market Report April 17, 2026 (citing CREA); NerdWallet Canada April 2026 update; Zoocasa CREA April 2026 analysis; CREA April 16, 2026 Quarterly Forecast downgrade; pegasuslending.com Canada Housing Market by City 2026
The provincial price map of 2026 is the clearest possible illustration of why national averages can mislead. Quebec recording an all-time record benchmark price for the third consecutive month in March 2026 while Ontario records its largest year-over-year benchmark decline of the current cycle at –6.5% are happening simultaneously, in the same national housing market, under the same Bank of Canada interest rate. The divergence is structural, not cyclical. Quebec’s relative affordability compared to Ontario and BC — its $549,400 benchmark is more than $300,000 below Greater Toronto’s — has continued to attract buyers, both domestic and immigrant, at a rate that keeps supply tight (3.9 months of inventory in Quebec vs 4.7 months nationally). Quebec City specifically has seen its share of provincial immigrants more than double from 6.7% to 14.7% over five years, reflecting the dispersal of demand that is supporting prices across the province.
Atlantic Canada’s continued outperformance — Newfoundland at +9.3%, New Brunswick at +4.6%, Nova Scotia at +3.6% — reflects the same structural story that began during the pandemic: Canadians are willing to move for affordability, community, and quality of life, and the prices in Atlantic Canada remain low enough relative to central Canada that even after years of gains, buyers can find value. The $355,067 average in Newfoundland and $354,338 in Saskatchewan represent less than a third of what a comparable home costs in Greater Toronto or Vancouver. The smaller city boom is its own story within this table — Thunder Bay led all Canadian markets in April with +24.3% year-over-year average price growth, bringing it to $433,600, followed by Trois-Rivières at +20.2%. These numbers reflect the structural search for value at play in the 2026 market.
3. Canada Home Prices by City 2026 — The Two-Speed Market
BENCHMARK HOME PRICE BY MAJOR CITY — APRIL/MARCH 2026 (MLS HPI)
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Greater Vancouver ████████████████████████████████████ $1,096,300 (–6.8% YoY)
Victoria ████████████████████████████████░░░░ ~$1,030,000 (–1.6% YoY)
GTA (Toronto) ████████████████████████████████░░░░ $944,100 (–6.6% YoY)
Ottawa ████████████████████████░░░░░░░░░░░░ $617,700 (–2.1% YoY)
Montreal ████████████████████░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░ $589,300 (+4.9% YoY)
Halifax ████████████████████░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░ $556,400 (+3.1% YoY)
Calgary ███████████████████░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░ $562,700 (–2.9% YoY)
Winnipeg █████████████░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░ $389,800 (+2.9% YoY)
Edmonton █████████████░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░ $412,700 (–2.9% YoY)
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Source: CREA MLS® HPI — March 2026 data (NerdWallet Canada / WOWA.ca)
| City / CMA | Benchmark Price (Mar 2026) | YoY Change | Average Price (Apr 2026) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Greater Vancouver | $1,096,300 | –6.8% | $1,218,745 (+0.3% Apr YoY) |
| Victoria | ~$1,027,854 (Mar avg) | +4.0% (Mar avg) | — |
| Greater Toronto Area (GTA) | $944,100 | –6.6% | $1,051,969 (–5.0% Apr YoY) |
| Hamilton-Burlington | $830,315 | –3.8% | — |
| Ottawa | $617,700 | –2.1% | 3.3 months of supply |
| Kitchener-Waterloo | $759,467 | –4.1% | — |
| Montreal | $589,300 | +4.9% | Avg $557,358 Mar (+5.2% YoY) |
| Halifax | $556,400 | +3.1% | New listings up 16.1% YoY (Apr) |
| Calgary | $562,700 | –2.9% | $670,264 (+1.1% Apr YoY) |
| Edmonton | $412,700 | –2.9% | $473,526 (+2.7% Apr YoY) |
| Winnipeg | $389,800 | +2.9% | Tight balanced conditions |
| London and St. Thomas | $619,470 | –4.7% | Southern Ontario correction |
| Niagara Region | $620,108 | –11.2% | Steepest decline of any major market |
| Thunder Bay | $433,600 | +24.3% | Strongest gainer — affordable city surge |
| Trois-Rivières | $458,215 | +20.2% | Second-strongest gainer |
| Quebec City | $549,400 (Mar benchmark) | All-time record | 3rd consecutive record month |
Source: NerdWallet Canada April 2026 housing market update (CREA MLS HPI March data); Zoocasa CREA April 2026 data; WOWA.ca Canada Housing Market Report April 17, 2026; WOWA.ca Toronto Housing Market May 5, 2026; pegasuslending.com Canada Housing Market by City 2026; wowa.ca Calgary, Edmonton data
Niagara Region’s –11.2% benchmark decline is the deepest correction of any major market in Canada in April 2026, illustrating how severely the pandemic-era spillover demand into commuter-distance Ontario cities has unwound. Niagara benefited heavily from Toronto buyers priced out of the GTA during 2020–2022; now, with those buyers absent and inventory elevated, the correction has been sharper than in the city itself. The GTA’s –6.6% benchmark decline is being absorbed differently across property types: condos are down 6.3% to an average of $636,000, while detached homes have held relatively better at –4.1% to $1.37 million — a pattern that reflects the investor-heavy composition of the condo market and the end-user focus of the freehold market. Toronto’s average days on market of 43 in April 2026 (up from 33 in April 2025) tells the story in plain language: buyers have time to think, inspect, negotiate, and walk away if the price is not right.
The contrast with Calgary and Edmonton is stark and structurally meaningful. Both Alberta cities show positive year-over-year average price growth in April 2026 (+1.1% and +2.7% respectively), both have fewer than 3 months of inventory, and both are receiving sustained interprovincial migration inflows. Calgary’s $670,264 average and Edmonton’s $473,526 are not just affordable relative to Toronto and Vancouver — they are affordable in absolute terms for Canadian households earning median incomes, which is increasingly rare in a country where the national average price sits at $695,412.
4. Canada Housing Inventory & Market Balance 2026
MONTHS OF INVENTORY — CANADIAN PROVINCES (March/April 2026)
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Alberta ██░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░ ~2.8 months ← SELLER'S MARKET
Saskatchewan ██░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░ ~2.9 months ← SELLER'S MARKET
Quebec ███░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░ ~3.9 months ← Trending seller's
Ottawa-Gat. ████░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░ ~3.3 months
National ████░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░ 5.2 months ← BALANCED
GTA (Apr 26) ████░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░ 4.2 months
Ontario/BC ████████░░░░░░░░░░░░ Higher than avg ← BUYER-FRIENDLY
─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
Seller's market: < 3.6 months | Buyer's market: > 6.4 months
════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
| Market / Metric | Data (March/April 2026) |
|---|---|
| National months of inventory (April 2026) | 5.2 months — near long-term average of 5 months |
| National months of inventory (March 2026) | 4.7 months |
| National months of inventory (January 2026) | 4.9 months |
| Alberta — months of supply | ~2.8 months — firmly in seller’s market territory (<3.6) |
| Saskatchewan — months of supply | ~2.9 months — seller’s market; SNLR 69% (Mar) |
| Quebec — months of supply | ~3.9 months (March) — tightening toward seller’s territory |
| GTA — months of supply (April 2026) | 4.2 months — balanced market |
| GTA — months of supply (April 2025 comparison) | 4.9 months — tighter now than a year ago |
| Greater Vancouver — months of supply (February 2026) | 7.8 months — buyer’s market conditions |
| Active listings (end of April 2026) | 187,647 — up 2.2% YoY; 6.1% below long-term average |
| Active listings (end of January 2026) | 140,680 — up 4.5% YoY; 11.4% below long-term average |
| New listings (April 2026 MoM) | +4.1% — spring listings flowing in |
| New listings (national, April 2026 YoY) | +0.2% — essentially flat year-over-year |
| SNLR — April 2026 | 45.6% — below balanced range (45–65%) |
| SNLR — March 2026 | 47.1% |
| SNLR — long-term average | 54.8% |
| Of 55 CREA cities — price decline MoM (March 2026) | 32 of 55 experienced monthly price declines |
Source: CREA May 14, 2026 news release; CREA January 2026 news release; CREA April 16, 2026 downgrade; NerdWallet Canada April 2026; WOWA.ca Canada Housing Market April 2026; pegasuslending.com Canada Housing Inventory by Province 2026
The 5.2 months of inventory nationally in April 2026 is a deceptively reassuring figure. Sitting just above the long-term balanced midpoint of 5 months, it suggests a market that is neither severely undersupplied nor overwhelmed with listings. But the provincial dispersion tells the real story. When Alberta sits at 2.8 months — nearly 1 month below the seller’s market threshold of 3.6 — and Greater Vancouver recently sat at 7.8 months in February, the national average is arithmetically combining two radically different market realities into a single number that accurately describes neither. Saskatchewan’s 69% sales-to-new-listings ratio in March 2026 is even more telling: that ratio means nearly seven of every ten new listings are being sold within the month, a pace consistent with strong seller leverage and limited buyer choice. In a market like that, the negotiating dynamic for buyers is almost the inverse of what a GTA condo buyer experiences with a 34.8% sales-to-new-listings ratio and the freedom to take 43 days to decide.
The below-average active listings nationally — despite being above year-ago levels — is a structural feature of the Canadian housing market that prevents the correction in Ontario and BC from becoming more severe. Even in the markets where prices are declining, sellers are not flooding the market with distressed supply; those who don’t need to sell are choosing not to, limiting inventory and providing a floor under prices. CREA notes explicitly that buyers remain in “wait and see” mode, and until that changes — driven by either rate cuts, price drops to a psychologically significant threshold, or economic confidence returning — the market is likely to remain in its current low-volume, stabilising-price equilibrium.
5. Canada Rental Market & Affordability Context 2026
CANADA RENTAL MARKET — KEY METRICS (FEBRUARY 2026 DATA)
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National avg. rent (Feb 2026) ████████████████░░░░ $2,030/month (–2.8% YoY)
1-bedroom avg. rent ██████████████░░░░░░ $1,781 (–3.5% YoY)
3-bedroom avg. rent ████████████████████ $2,486 (+0.6% YoY)
Condo rental units (YoY) ░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░ –5.1% (steepest drop)
Purpose-built rentals (YoY) ░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░ –1.9%
National vacancy rate (late 2025) ████████░░░░░░░░░░░░ 3.1% (was 2.2% in 2024)
Vancouver 1-bed YoY change ░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░ –5.7%
══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
| Rental / Affordability Metric | Data (2025–2026) |
|---|---|
| National average rent (February 2026) | $2,030/month — down 2.8% year-over-year |
| Average rent (January 2026 MoM change) | –1.3% — largest February decline since 2020 |
| Average 1-bedroom rent (February 2026) | $1,781 — down 3.5% year-over-year |
| Average 3-bedroom rent (February 2026) | $2,486 — up 0.6% (limited family-sized supply) |
| Condo rental units (February 2026 YoY) | –5.1% — steepest category decline |
| Purpose-built rentals (February 2026 YoY) | –1.9% |
| National vacancy rate (purpose-built, late 2025) | 3.1% — up significantly from 2.2% in 2024 |
| Toronto vacancy rate | 3.0% |
| Montreal vacancy rate | 2.9% |
| Vancouver vacancy rate | 3.7% |
| Calgary vacancy rate | 5.0% — highest of major cities |
| Vancouver 1-bedroom asking rent (YoY change) | –5.7% — part of –11.8% from 2023 peak |
| 30% of prospective buyers plan to enter market in 2026 | TD survey — lower prices + lower rates cited |
| Parents co-signing mortgages (2025) | Up 7% year-over-year — intergenerational housing strain |
| Federal insured mortgage cap (December 2024) | Raised to $1.5 million — expands access in high-priced markets |
| Mortgage stress test qualifying rate | Income qualification still primary constraint on demand (nesto.ca) |
| New housing starts trend (2025–26) | 264,445 units per year — under construction: 356,000 units |
| Housing starts — under construction (Nov 2025) | 298,000 apartments + 29,000 detached + 22,000 row houses |
Source: nesto.ca Canada Housing Market Outlook March 2026; WOWA.ca Canada Housing Market April 2026 (CMHC vacancy data); True North Mortgage Housing Market Forecast 2026; CMHC Housing Market Outlook 2026; zoocasa.com CREA April 2026; CREA — downgraded forecast April 16, 2026
The decline in average rents — down 2.8% nationally in February 2026 compared to a year earlier — is one of the clearest structural signals that Canada’s housing market has entered a new phase. For much of 2022, 2023, and 2024, rents were rising at double-digit annual rates, squeezing renters and pushing affordability to crisis levels in Toronto, Vancouver, and beyond. The reversal is being driven by two forces arriving simultaneously: the NPR population outflows stripping demand from the rental market (international students and temporary workers accounted for a disproportionate share of rental demand in major urban centres), and a wave of new apartment supply completions from the construction boom of 2022–2024 entering the market just as that demand evaporated. The 3.1% national vacancy rate — up sharply from 2.2% in 2024 — reflects that new supply arriving into a softening demand environment. Calgary’s 5.0% vacancy rate is the highest of any major Canadian city, consistent with its population growth slowing and its construction pipeline from recent boom years still delivering units.
For prospective buyers, the rent decline creates a complex calculus. Lower rents reduce the urgency to buy, potentially extending the “wait and see” buyer posture that CREA has been flagging. The federal insured mortgage cap increase to $1.5 million in December 2024 was specifically designed to loosen access in Toronto and Vancouver for buyers with less than 20% down payments, and the 30% of prospective buyers in a TD survey who indicated they planned to enter the market in 2026 suggests latent demand exists. But between mortgage stress test requirements, elevated fixed rates, and prices that despite corrections remain above pre-pandemic levels in most markets, converting that intent into transactions remains the central challenge of the 2026 Canadian housing market.
6. Canada Housing Sales Forecast & Outlook 2026–2027
CREA 2026–2027 FORECAST (DOWNGRADED APRIL 16, 2026)
════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
2025 actual transactions (final) ████████████████████ ~470,000 estimated
2026 forecast (downgraded) ████████████████████ 474,972 (+1% YoY)
2026 avg. price forecast ████████████████████ $688,955 (+1.5%)
Ontario 2026 avg. price ████████████████████ ~flat (virtually no growth)
BC 2026 avg. price ████████████████████ ~flat
Other provinces 2026 gains ████████████████████ +2% to +5% range
2027 forecast (recovery) ████████████████████ BC and ON to lead
════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
| Forecast Metric | Data (CREA April 16, 2026 Downgrade + CMHC 2026) |
|---|---|
| CREA 2026 residential sales forecast | 474,972 transactions — up 1% from 2025 (downgraded from prior forecast) |
| CREA 2026 national average price forecast | $688,955 — up 1.5% annually (below inflation) |
| British Columbia — 2026 price forecast | ~flat (virtually no growth) — room to recover from correction |
| Ontario — 2026 price forecast | ~flat — corrections concentrated in GTA and Golden Horseshoe |
| Other provinces — 2026 price range | +2% to +5% gains (Saskatchewan, Quebec, Atlantic) |
| Primary upside catalyst | Pent-up first-time buyer demand; rates no longer expected to fall |
| Primary downside risk | US tariff escalation → oil price → inflation → BoC rate hike |
| Bank of Canada rate direction (2026) | Held at 2.25%; tariff risk raised possibility of hike (April 2026) |
| Fixed mortgage rate direction (Spring 2026) | Rose from late March on bond yield increases |
| CREA 2027 forecast | Higher recovery — BC and Ontario expected to lead rebound |
| Royal LePage end-2026 aggregate price forecast | $701,061 (+1.5% aggregate; single-family +3% to $828,429) |
| CMHC 2026 outlook (Prairies) | Modest price gains; starts easing from recent highs |
| CMHC 2026 outlook (BC) | Resale prices to rise moderately; specific higher-priced segments to adjust |
| CMHC 2026 outlook (Ontario) | Recovery expected but pace dependent on rate environment |
| Key structural factor (long-term) | Housing starts 264,445/yr vs sustained long-run need — supply gap persists |
| Units under construction (Nov 2025) | 356,000 — large pipeline; completions to keep adding supply in 2026 |
Source: CREA Quarterly Forecast (downgraded April 16, 2026); CMHC Housing Market Outlook 2026 (January 2026); Royal LePage 2026 Year-End Forecast (December 2025); CREA May 14, 2026 news release; True North Mortgage Housing Market Forecast 2026; zoocasa.com CREA April 2026 analysis
CREA’s explicit characterisation of 2026 as a “muted rebound” rather than a genuine recovery is the most important framing in the entire forecast picture. The pent-up demand argument — that first-time buyers who were shut out of the market for four years would finally emerge when rates fell and prices corrected — was the structural thesis underpinning every bullish 2026 housing prediction made in late 2024. The tariff shock disrupted that thesis not by making homes more expensive but by injecting economic uncertainty at exactly the moment confidence was needed to commit to a major purchase. A buyer who was ready to buy a $900,000 home in February 2026 and suddenly faces uncertainty about their employer’s business with the United States, or who watched fixed mortgage rates jump 30–40 basis points in a single month, is a buyer who waits another quarter. Multiplied across hundreds of thousands of such individuals, that hesitation explains the –7.9% year-to-date sales decline through Q1 and the muted +0.7% monthly tick in April.
The structural long-term story has not changed. Canada’s 264,445 housing starts per year remain well below the sustained pace needed to house the country’s population over the next decade, and the 356,000 units currently under construction — while a record pipeline — will be absorbed relatively quickly in a country where the underlying demographic demand for housing remains significant even after the immigration correction. The split between Ontario and BC (where the correction is correcting an overshot) and the rest of Canada (where values are holding or rising) is a feature of a market returning to regional fundamentals after a period when national price movements were unusually synchronised. By 2027, CREA expects BC and Ontario to lead the recovery — precisely because those markets have more room to rebound from their current corrected levels than markets like Saskatchewan and Quebec, where prices are already at or near records.
Disclaimer: The data research report we present here is based on information found from various sources. We are not liable for any financial loss, errors, or damages of any kind that may result from the use of the information herein. We acknowledge that though we try to report accurately, we cannot verify the absolute facts of everything that has been represented.
