Australia’s total fertility rate fell to 1.481 births per woman in 2024, the lowest level since national records began in 1929, and a new Intergenerational Report released September 21, 2026, projects it will drop further to just 1.34 by 2065. Australia recorded an estimated 299,984 births and 188,445 deaths in 2025, with the government’s own long-term modeling now projecting deaths will outnumber births nationally by the 2060s for the first time.
Birth Rate in Australia 2026 – Introduction
Australia’s birth rate has settled into a long-term decline that shows no sign of reversing, and the country’s own Treasury just confirmed how far that decline is expected to go. Australia has recorded a total fertility rate below the population replacement level of 2.1 children per woman in every year since 1976, but 2024’s figure of 1.481 marked a genuine milestone: the lowest fertility rate ever recorded in the country’s history, breaking a record that had stood since the Australian Bureau of Statistics began tracking the measure a century ago.
What makes 2026 particularly significant for this topic is the release of the government’s fifth Intergenerational Report, published just days ago, which for the first time in the report’s history projects that Australian deaths will exceed births nationally within the next four decades. This report covers the full set of verified 2026 birth rate statistics, from the latest annual figures to the state-by-state breakdown and the long-range government projections now shaping national economic policy.
Interesting Facts About Australia’s Birth Rate in 2026
| Fact | Figure |
|---|---|
| 2024 Total Fertility Rate (Final) | 1.481 births per woman (record low) |
| 2024 Registered Births | 292,318 (+1.9% from 2023) |
| 2025 Estimated Births | 299,984 |
| 2025 Estimated Deaths | 188,445 |
| 2025 Natural Increase | 111,539 people |
| Replacement-Level Fertility Needed | 2.1 births per woman |
| Projected 2065 Fertility Rate | 1.34 births per woman |
| Projected Australian Population by 2066 | ~40 million |
Data Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, Births Australia 2024; Australian Government Intergenerational Report 2026 (released September 21, 2026)
These figures capture a country whose population keeps growing even as its birth rate keeps falling, a combination made possible almost entirely by immigration rather than natural increase. Australia’s 111,539 natural increase (births minus deaths) in 2025 accounted for just 27.0% of the country’s total population growth of 412,494 that year, with the remaining 73% supplied by net overseas migration, a ratio that has become the defining feature of Australian population growth.
The 1.481 fertility rate recorded in 2024 is not just a record low; it represents roughly 30% below the 2.1 replacement level a country needs to sustain its population without relying on immigration. That gap, combined with the government’s new projection that fertility will fall to just 1.34 by 2065, explains why the Treasurer described Australia’s fertility outlook as set to decline “further and faster” than previously forecast.
Australia’s Fertility Rate 2026 | Record Low & Historical Context
AUSTRALIA'S FERTILITY RATE BY YEAR (births per woman)
1961 ██████████████████████████████████ 3.548
2023 █████████████████ 1.499
2024 ████████████████ 1.481
2065 (projected) ██████████████ 1.34
| Year | Total Fertility Rate |
|---|---|
| 1961 (peak, post-WWII baby boom) | 3.548 |
| 2023 | 1.499 |
| 2024 (record low) | 1.481 |
| 2065 (projected) | 1.34 |
Data Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, Births, Australia, 2024; Intergenerational Report 2026
Australia’s fertility rate has fallen dramatically from its post-war peak, when the total fertility rate reached 3.548 births per woman in 1961 during the height of the Australian baby boom. By 2024, that figure had collapsed to 1.481, down from 2023’s 1.499, marking the second consecutive year below 1.5 and the lowest rate recorded since the ABS began compiling national fertility statistics in 1929. The country has now spent every year since 1976 below the 2.1 replacement threshold.
The total fertility rate measures the average number of children a woman would have over her lifetime if current age-specific birth rates held constant, and Australia’s trajectory mirrors a pattern seen across most developed economies: rising education and workforce participation among women, delayed childbearing, and higher housing and living costs all contributing to smaller family sizes. The government’s newest long-range modeling, released this month, projects the rate will continue falling to 1.34 by 2065, a figure Treasury explicitly frames as falling “further and faster” than the projections in the previous Intergenerational Report.
Births and Deaths in Australia 2026 | Natural Increase vs. Migration
AUSTRALIA POPULATION GROWTH SOURCES — YEAR TO DEC 2025
Net Overseas Migration ██████████████████████████ 73.0%
Natural Increase ███████████████ 27.0%
| Metric | Year Ending December 31, 2025 |
|---|---|
| Estimated Births | 299,984 |
| Estimated Deaths | 188,445 |
| Natural Increase | 111,539 |
| Net Overseas Migration | 300,955 |
| Total Population Growth | 412,494 |
| Natural Increase Share of Growth | 27.0% |
Data Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, National, State and Territory Population, December 2025 (published June 18, 2026)
Australia recorded an estimated 299,984 births against 188,445 deaths in the year ending December 31, 2025, producing a natural increase of 111,539 people. That natural increase made up just over a quarter, 27.0%, of the country’s total population growth of 412,494 for the year, with net overseas migration of 300,955 supplying nearly three-quarters of all growth, underscoring how dependent Australia’s overall population expansion has become on immigration rather than births.
That dependence has grown more pronounced as fertility has fallen and Australia’s population has aged. As of June 2025, the 65-and-older population (4.84 million) slightly exceeded the 0-to-14 population (4.80 million) for the first time in the country’s modern demographic history, a crossover that illustrates just how much the balance between generations has shifted. For a closer look at how migration specifically has offset Australia’s declining birth rate, see Australia Immigration Statistics.
Australia Birth Rate by State 2026 | Fastest & Slowest Growing States
STATE POPULATION GROWTH RATE — YEAR TO MARCH 2025
Western Australia ███████████████████████ 2.3% (fastest)
Tasmania ████ 0.2% (slowest)
| State/Territory | 2025 Data Point |
|---|---|
| Western Australia | Fastest population growth rate, 2.3% |
| Tasmania | Slowest population growth rate, 0.2% |
| Victoria | Highest natural increase of any state, 33,730 people |
| All States/Territories | Reported positive population growth as of March 2025 |
Data Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, National, State and Territory Population
Every Australian state and territory reported positive population growth as of March 31, 2025, though the pace varied considerably. Western Australia posted the fastest growth rate nationally at 2.3%, reflecting continued strong interstate and overseas migration into the state, while Tasmania recorded the slowest growth at just 0.2%, consistent with its longer-term pattern of both lower fertility and net internal migration losses to the mainland.
Victoria recorded the highest natural increase of any state, with 33,730 more births than deaths in the year to March 2025, an increase of 1.9%, or 2,000 more people, compared with the same period the year before. Nationally, Australia’s overall natural increase for that same 12-month window reached 107,400 people, reflecting the combined births-minus-deaths total across every state and territory.
Birth Sex Ratio & Parental Age 2026 | What the Data Shows
2024 REGISTERED BIRTHS BY SEX
Male Births ██████████████████████████████████ 51.4%
Female Births ███████████████████████████████ 48.6%
| Metric | 2024 Figure |
|---|---|
| Total Registered Births | 292,318 |
| Male Share of Births | 51.4% |
| Sex Ratio at Birth | 105.8 male births per 100 female births |
| Mean Age at Birth (Mother) | ~31.6 years |
| Infant Mortality Rate | 3.01 deaths per 1,000 live births |
Data Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, Births, Australia, 2024
Of the 292,318 births registered in Australia in 2024, 51.4% were male, producing a sex ratio of 105.8 male births for every 100 female births, a ratio that has remained biologically consistent across nearly every population and time period ever studied, reflecting a naturally occurring, universal pattern rather than any Australia-specific trend. The average age of Australian mothers giving birth has continued climbing over recent decades, now sitting at approximately 31.6 years, part of the broader delayed-childbearing pattern contributing to the country’s falling fertility rate.
Australia’s infant mortality rate of 3.01 deaths per 1,000 live births remains low by global standards, reflecting the country’s well-resourced maternal and newborn healthcare system. That low infant mortality rate, combined with rising life expectancy, means Australia’s demographic challenge is overwhelmingly a story of too few births rather than elevated mortality at any life stage, a distinction that shapes how the government’s long-range population and welfare projections, covered in the next section, are being framed. Reproductive health data more broadly also factors into national birth trends; see Abortion Statistics in Australia for related context. For related context on how Australia’s aging population is straining the broader social safety net, see Australia Welfare Statistics.
Australia’s Intergenerational Report 2026 | Long-Term Birth Rate Projections
INTERGENERATIONAL REPORT 2026 — KEY PROJECTIONS
Fertility Rate by 2065 1.34 (down from 1.481 in 2024)
Population by 2066 ~40 million
Australians Over 85 by 2066 Triple current numbers
Deaths Exceed Births Projected by the 2060s (first time)
| Projection | Detail |
|---|---|
| Released | September 21, 2026 |
| Projected 2065 Fertility Rate | 1.34 births per woman |
| Projected 2066 Population | ~40 million |
| Australians Over 85 by 2066 | Triple today’s number |
| Deaths Exceeding Births | First IGR to project this, by the 2060s |
Data Source: Australian Government, Intergenerational Report 2026
Australia’s fifth Intergenerational Report, released September 21, 2026, delivered the starkest long-term demographic warning of any edition since the report series began. Treasurer Jim Chalmers confirmed the government now expects fertility to fall “further and faster” than earlier projections anticipated, with the total fertility rate forecast to reach just 1.34 births per woman by 2065. For the first time in the report’s history, the modeling projects that deaths will outnumber births nationally by the 2060s, a threshold no previous Intergenerational Report had forecast Australia would cross.
Despite falling births, the report still projects Australia’s population will grow to almost 40 million people by 2066, driven entirely by continued immigration rather than natural increase. The number of Australians aged 85 and older is projected to triple by 2066, intensifying pressure on the aged care, health, and pension systems that already account for a growing share of federal spending. Chalmers noted that despite these pressures, Australia remains “better placed than many other countries” to manage the transition, pointing to the country’s comparatively high immigration intake as a structural advantage most developed nations with similarly low fertility rates do not share.
Frequently Asked Questions About Australia’s Birth Rate in 2026
What is Australia’s current fertility rate?
Australia’s fertility rate was 1.481 births per woman in 2024, the most recent finalized figure and the lowest ever recorded in the country’s history.
How many babies were born in Australia in 2025?
An estimated 299,984 births were recorded in the year ending December 31, 2025, according to Australian Bureau of Statistics population data.
Is Australia’s population still growing despite the low birth rate?
Yes. Australia’s population continues to grow, but 73% of that growth in 2025 came from net overseas migration rather than natural increase from births.
What replacement fertility rate does Australia need?
A total fertility rate of 2.1 births per woman is needed to sustain a population over time without relying on immigration; Australia has been below this level every year since 1976.
What does Australia’s Intergenerational Report project for the future?
Released September 21, 2026, it projects fertility will fall to 1.34 by 2065, Australia’s population will reach ~40 million by 2066, and deaths will exceed births nationally by the 2060s for the first time.
Which Australian state has the fastest population growth?
Western Australia recorded the fastest population growth rate of any state, at 2.3%, as of March 2025.
Which Australian state has the slowest population growth?
Tasmania recorded the slowest population growth rate, at just 0.2%, as of March 2025.
What is Australia’s natural increase in population?
Australia recorded a natural increase (births minus deaths) of 111,539 people in the year ending December 31, 2025.
What is the sex ratio of babies born in Australia?
105.8 male births are recorded for every 100 female births, with males accounting for 51.4% of total registered births in 2024.
Will deaths outnumber births in Australia?
The government’s 2026 Intergenerational Report projects this will happen nationally by the 2060s, the first time any edition of the report has forecast this outcome.
Disclaimer: The data research report we present here is based on information found from various sources. We are not liable for any financial loss, errors, or damages of any kind that may result from the use of the information herein. We acknowledge that though we try to report accurately, we cannot verify the absolute facts of everything that has been represented.
